Robert Morris
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#194
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#163
Pace70.5#120
Improvement+5.0#18

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#218
First Shot-1.7#229
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#170
Layup/Dunks+1.2#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#221
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#345
Freethrows+4.0#13
Improvement+5.8#2

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#171
First Shot-1.8#236
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#58
Layups/Dunks-3.0#291
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#253
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#69
Freethrows-0.8#248
Improvement-0.8#226
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.0% 10.3% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.7% 93.7%
Conference Champion 4.4% 4.9% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round10.0% 10.2% 8.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 85.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 66 - 8
Quad 414 - 420 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 39   @ West Virginia L 59-87 8%     0 - 1 -13.6 -5.1 -8.0
  Nov 07, 2024 232   @ Delaware L 77-81 50%     0 - 2 -5.6 -6.4 +1.1
  Nov 14, 2024 321   Stonehill W 63-51 84%     1 - 2 -0.2 -14.0 +14.1
  Nov 15, 2024 349   Lindenwood W 67-53 89%     2 - 2 -0.9 -3.3 +3.9
  Nov 17, 2024 351   New Orleans W 73-62 90%     3 - 2 -4.3 -10.8 +6.0
  Nov 21, 2024 122   @ Cornell W 86-76 27%     4 - 2 +14.8 +8.5 +5.8
  Nov 27, 2024 352   Canisius W 72-64 90%     5 - 2 -7.5 -8.3 +1.1
  Nov 30, 2024 168   @ Ohio L 68-84 35%     5 - 3 -13.6 -3.9 -9.7
  Dec 04, 2024 219   Youngstown St. L 58-72 66%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -19.7 -18.4 -0.6
  Dec 08, 2024 149   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 77-82 32%     5 - 5 0 - 2 -1.6 -6.0 +4.9
  Dec 17, 2024 160   Towson W 68-67 52%     6 - 5 -1.1 +3.7 -4.7
  Dec 21, 2024 336   St. Francis (PA) W 90-77 87%     7 - 5 -1.0 +5.8 -7.5
  Dec 29, 2024 244   Northern Kentucky W 97-93 3OT 71%     8 - 5 1 - 2 -3.4 -3.2 -1.3
  Jan 02, 2025 323   @ Detroit Mercy L 76-78 OT 72%     8 - 6 1 - 3 -9.5 -0.5 -8.9
  Jan 04, 2025 188   @ Oakland W 79-71 40%     9 - 6 2 - 3 +9.1 +12.8 -2.9
  Jan 08, 2025 157   Cleveland St. L 69-80 52%     9 - 7 2 - 4 -13.0 -2.9 -10.1
  Jan 12, 2025 196   Wright St. W 75-72 60%     10 - 7 3 - 4 -1.1 -4.5 +3.3
  Jan 17, 2025 347   @ Green Bay W 89-67 78%     11 - 7 4 - 4 +12.5 +10.2 +2.3
  Jan 19, 2025 133   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 81-79 29%     12 - 7 5 - 4 +6.1 +7.8 -1.7
  Jan 22, 2025 219   @ Youngstown St. W 72-70 47%     13 - 7 6 - 4 +1.2 +5.9 -4.5
  Jan 25, 2025 188   Oakland W 73-71 59%     14 - 7 7 - 4 -1.8 +4.8 -6.4
  Jan 30, 2025 330   IU Indianapolis W 106-53 86%     15 - 7 8 - 4 +39.9 +23.5 +16.8
  Feb 02, 2025 196   @ Wright St. L 64-66 41%     15 - 8 8 - 5 -1.2 -6.0 +4.7
  Feb 05, 2025 323   Detroit Mercy W 75-64 86%    
  Feb 08, 2025 244   @ Northern Kentucky W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 12, 2025 157   @ Cleveland St. L 67-72 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 149   Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-78 52%    
  Feb 21, 2025 347   Green Bay W 81-68 90%    
  Feb 23, 2025 133   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 75-76 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 330   @ IU Indianapolis W 78-71 71%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.1 2.0 4.4 1st
2nd 0.4 7.2 9.7 1.2 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 6.1 14.0 2.3 22.6 3rd
4th 0.2 4.5 18.0 6.0 0.1 28.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 9.2 5.0 0.1 16.1 5th
6th 0.3 2.9 3.5 0.2 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.3 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.1 6.4 17.7 29.7 27.4 14.3 3.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 62.5% 2.0    0.9 0.9 0.2
14-6 14.9% 2.1    0.2 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 1.1 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 3.3% 15.7% 15.7% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.7
14-6 14.3% 14.9% 14.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.8 0.0 12.1
13-7 27.4% 12.2% 12.2% 14.8 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.3 24.1
12-8 29.7% 9.0% 9.0% 15.0 0.5 1.8 0.4 27.1
11-9 17.7% 6.2% 6.2% 15.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 16.6
10-10 6.4% 4.1% 4.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.1
9-11 1.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.1
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 14.7 0.1 0.4 2.9 5.3 1.3 90.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 13.3 13.7 43.1 41.2 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%