St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.5 #357
Expected Predictive Rating -14.0 #347
Pace 71.9 #94
Improvement +4.0 #32

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #347 D+ D D+ F+ D
Defense #348 F D C+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #318 1.09 #262 -4.3 #321
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #79 0.64 #330 +0.8 #137
Three Pointers 41% #186 1.00 #208 -0.3 #190
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #303 -3.9 #300
Freethrows 0.23 #353 70% #247 0.16 #353
Second Chance 25.3% #324 1.00 #224 0.25 #303
Turnovers 18.1% #276
Total Offense -7.5 #347

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #135 1.35 #357 -4.9 #337
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #318 0.71 #101 +2.3 #30
Three Pointers 44% #91 1.20 #359 -5.6 #352
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #362 -8.2 #362
Freethrows 0.33 #280 72% #154 0.24 #267
Second Chance 33.6% #296 1.12 #304 0.38 #324
Turnovers 17.7% #113
Total Defense -7.0 #348

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #310 1.5% #307
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.9% #281 14.7% #362
Possession Length 17.4 #196 15.9 #15
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #271 0.21 #298
Improvement +3.9 #18 +0.1 #185

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.3% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 16.0% 39.5% 10.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.5% 5.3% 18.0%
First Four1.8% 2.3% 1.7%
First Round0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercyhurst (Away) - 19.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 47 - 137 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 55 @Oklahoma L 66 - 102 1% -11  0 - 1 -23 -6 D D+ D -15 F F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 51 @TCU L 63 - 104 1% -23  0 - 2 -28 -8 C- F C -16 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 11 289 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 74 34% -5  0 - 3 -18 -8 F+ F+ D+ -10 F B C
 Tue, Nov 18 301 @Lehigh L 62 - 79 19% -9  0 - 4 -22 -15 F C F -7 F+ F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 74 Belmont L 57 - 94 3% -16  0 - 5 -29 -16 F F F -13 F C C
 Wed, Nov 26 140 Troy L 64 - 74 8% +2  0 - 6 -9 -12 C- F F +3 C C A+
 Mon, Dec 1 83 @Xavier L 74 - 96 2% -13  0 - 7 -12 -1 C- C D+ -9 C- D- D
 Sun, Dec 7 234 @Radford L 56 - 89 11% -17  0 - 8 -34 -19 F F D -16 F F C
 Sun, Dec 14 143 @Temple L 67 - 95 5% -17  0 - 9 -24 -5 D+ C+ D+ -20 F A- C
 Wed, Dec 17 5 @Florida L 61 - 102 0% -25  0 - 10 -16 -1 C C C -14 F F A
 Sat, Dec 20 220 Robert Morris L 70 - 79 22% -2  0 - 11 -15 -0 D+ A- A+ -16 F A+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 296 Le Moyne L 58 - 84 36% -9  0 - 12 0 - 1 -37 -17 F F C -20 F F C+
 Sun, Jan 4 343 Fairleigh Dickinson W 85 - 82 51% -0  1 - 12 1 - 1 -12 +2 D A C+ -14 D+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 330 @Wagner W 71 - 69 25% -1  2 - 12 2 - 1 -6 -1 C C D- -4 C D C+
 Sat, Jan 10 195 @LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 67 9% -1  2 - 13 2 - 2 -3 -10 C F D +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 300 Central Connecticut St. L 90 - 98 37% -7  2 - 14 2 - 3 -19 +13 C+ A- A- -32 F B- F
 Mon, Jan 19 328 Stonehill W 63 - 61 46% -3  3 - 14 3 - 3 -11 -8 F C B- -3 D- C A+
 Fri, Jan 23 355 Chicago St. W 81 - 60 61% +13  4 - 14 4 - 3 +4 +3 A+ F C +1 C+ C B
 Sat, Jan 31 334 New Haven L 69 - 81 48% -5  4 - 15 4 - 4 -26 -4 D- D+ C+ -22 F C F
 Thu, Feb 5 304 @Mercyhurst L 65 - 74 19%
 Sat, Feb 7 296 @Le Moyne L 71 - 81 18%
 Mon, Feb 9 355 @Chicago St. L 74 - 77 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 343 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 71 - 77 30%
 Thu, Feb 19 195 LIU Brooklyn L 71 - 80 20%
 Sat, Feb 21 330 Wagner L 72 - 73 47%
 Thu, Feb 26 328 @Stonehill L 64 - 71 26%
 Sat, Feb 28 300 @Central Connecticut St. L 69 - 78 19%
Totals 6 - 21 6 - 10 -14 -7 D+ D D+ -7 F D C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 3rd
4th 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 1.5 0.1 4.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 5.0 0.5 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.3 5.2 11.1 3.0 0.1 19.6 7th
8th 0.4 8.1 16.9 6.4 0.3 0.0 32.1 8th
9th 5.7 13.8 6.6 0.5 26.7 9th
10th 3.9 1.9 0.1 5.8 10th
Total 10.0 24.1 28.9 21.0 11.0 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0% 0.0
11-5 0.2% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-6 1.2% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.1 1.1
9-7 3.5% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.2 3.4
8-8 11.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.3 10.7
7-9 21.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 20.7
6-10 28.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.5 28.5
5-11 24.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 23.8
4-12 10.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.9
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 16.0 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.4%