St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -15.6 #361
Expected Predictive Rating -13.9 #341
Pace 71.4 #116
Improvement +1.8 #90

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #353 D- D- D- F D
Defense #352 F D- C+ C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #303 1.10 #252 -3.7 #303
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #91 0.67 #275 +0.7 #145
Three Pointers 41% #176 0.91 #301 -2.1 #262
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #318 -5.1 #318
Freethrows 10.5 #365 72% #192 7.6 #365
Second Chance 25.6% #318 0.99 #251 0.25 #308
Turnovers 18.9% #306
Total Offense -8.4 #353

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #113 1.37 #361 -5.8 #345
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #339 0.83 #291 +1.9 #55
Three Pointers 45% #83 1.19 #351 -5.8 #346
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #363 -9.7 #363
Freethrows 16.7 #158 73% #224 12.3 #192
Second Chance 33.0% #270 1.19 #319 0.39 #322
Turnovers 17.3% #137
Total Defense -7.2 #352

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #294 1.9% #332
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.3% #303 17.3% #363
Possession Length 17.8 #228 16.1 #29
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #270 0.22 #314
Improvement +2.0 #64 -0.2 #205

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 2.6% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 20.0% 44.7% 18.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 1.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.7% 17.2% 38.0%
First Four1.2% 2.6% 1.1%
First Round0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Away) - 6.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 46 - 146 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 48 @Oklahoma L 66 - 102 1%  -11  0 - 1 -22 -6 D- D F -14 F F B+
 Thu, Nov 6 44 @TCU L 63 - 104 1%  -23  0 - 2 -26 -7 C- F C+ -15 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 11 292 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 74 30%  -5  0 - 3 -18 -9 F F D- -10 F B+ B
 Tue, Nov 18 320 @Lehigh L 62 - 79 20%  -9  0 - 4 -24 -15 F C- F -8 F F C+
 Mon, Nov 24 73 Belmont L 57 - 94 2%  -16  0 - 5 -29 -15 F F F -13 F C C
 Wed, Nov 26 137 Troy L 64 - 74 6%  +2  0 - 6 -9 -11 C F F +2 C D+ A+
 Mon, Dec 1 97 @Xavier L 74 - 96 2%  -13  0 - 7 -14 -1 C- C C- -10 D F D+
 Sun, Dec 7 234 @Radford L 56 - 89 9%  -17  0 - 8 -34 -18 F F D- -16 F F C
 Sun, Dec 14 143 @Temple L 67 - 95 4%  -17  0 - 9 -24 -6 D- B- F -18 F A- C
 Wed, Dec 17 12 @Florida L 61 - 102 0%  -25  0 - 10 -20 -2 C C- D+ -16 F F A
 Sat, Dec 20 206 Robert Morris L 70 - 79 17%  -2  0 - 11 -15 +0 C- A- A+ -16 F A+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 291 Le Moyne L 58 - 84 30%  -9  0 - 12 0 - 1 -36 -19 F F C -18 F F B+
 Sun, Jan 4 349 Fairleigh Dickinson W 85 - 82 50%  -0  1 - 12 1 - 1 -13 +1 F A+ B- -14 D F F
 Thu, Jan 8 316 @Wagner W 71 - 69 19%  -1  2 - 12 2 - 1 -4 +0 C D+ F -4 C D B-
 Sat, Jan 10 209 @LIU Brooklyn L 68 - 84 6% 
 Sat, Jan 17 269 Central Connecticut St. L 70 - 76 28% 
 Mon, Jan 19 340 Stonehill L 69 - 70 46% 
 Fri, Jan 23 353 Chicago St. W 75 - 74 52% 
 Sun, Jan 25 338 @New Haven L 64 - 71 25% 
 Thu, Jan 29 353 @Chicago St. L 72 - 78 30% 
 Sat, Jan 31 338 New Haven L 67 - 68 46% 
 Thu, Feb 5 307 @Mercyhurst L 64 - 74 18% 
 Sat, Feb 7 291 @Le Moyne L 72 - 83 15% 
 Thu, Feb 12 349 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 72 - 78 30% 
 Thu, Feb 19 209 LIU Brooklyn L 71 - 81 18% 
 Sat, Feb 21 316 Wagner L 71 - 74 38% 
 Thu, Feb 26 340 @Stonehill L 66 - 73 26% 
 Sat, Feb 28 269 @Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 79 13% 
Totals 6 - 22 6 - 11 -16 -8 D- D- D- -7 F D- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.6 3.3 2.3 0.4 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.2 4.5 0.7 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 4.2 7.2 1.8 0.1 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.4 9.5 3.5 0.2 18.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 5.5 10.2 4.8 0.4 21.9 9th
10th 2.1 7.0 9.0 4.6 0.6 0.0 23.2 10th
Total 2.1 8.0 15.0 19.6 19.5 15.9 10.4 5.6 2.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 36.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 14.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.5% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.3% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-5 0.9% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
10-6 2.7% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 2.6
9-7 5.6% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.2 5.4
8-8 10.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 10.2
7-9 15.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 15.6
6-10 19.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 19.4
5-11 19.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 19.5
4-12 15.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.9
3-13 8.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.9
2-14 2.1% 2.1
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 16.0 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%