St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.9 355
Results Rating -16.9 357
Pace 73.4 58
Improvement +2.9 71

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 338 D+ D D D- D+
Defense F+ 356 F D- B- D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 295 C- 55% 248 -3.3 293
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 96 D- 32% 334 +0.1 175
Three Pointers 41% 166 C 34% 172 +0.3 162
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 283 D+ -2.2 261
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 272
Second Chance D+ 27.0% 278 D 0.92 318 D 0.25 314
Turnovers D 18.9% 301
Freethrows D- 0.26 326 D 69% 293 D- 0.18 338
Total Offense D- -7.0 338

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 270 D 13.2% 307
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 165 C- 6.4% 267
Three Pointers C+ 87% 123 B- 0.6% 109
Total C 55% 198 D+ 6.3% 264

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 118 F 69% 363 +6.0 350
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 339 C+ 37% 138 -2.3 23
Three Pointers 44% 92 F+ 39% 351 +4.5 342
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 333 F +7.1 363
1st FG Attempt F 1.19 364
Second Chance D 33.5% 299 D- 1.17 347 D- 0.39 342
Turnovers B- 18.2% 90
Freethrows D- 0.36 328 C 72% 179 D- 0.26 326
Total Defense F+ -7.9 356

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 50% 198 F+ 4.1% 359
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 42% 350 C 5.3% 142
Three Pointers D+ 86% 254 D- 0.0% 353
Total D+ 61% 300 F+ 2.5% 357

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 163 15.9 10
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 268 0.23 338
Improvement +3.6 #33 -0.7 #231

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 359 355 349
Results Rating Rank 359 356 351
Conference Record 4 - 12 5 - 11 6 - 10
Conference Finish 10 10 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 90% 69% 96%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: New Haven (Away) - 23.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 45 - 165 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 52 @Oklahoma L 66 - 102 1% -11  6% 0 - 1 F -23 F -10 D D D- F -10 F+ F B-
 Thu, Nov 6 50 @TCU L 63 - 104 1% -23  0% 0 - 2 F -27 F+ -10 C- F C F -13 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 11 284 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 74 32% -5  18% 0 - 3 F -18 F -11 F+ F+ D D- -7 F B C+
 Tue, Nov 18 307 @Lehigh L 62 - 79 19% -9  1% 0 - 4 F -23 F -18 F C+ F D+ -4 D- F B
 Mon, Nov 24 67 Belmont L 57 - 94 3% -16  2% 0 - 5 F -29 F -18 F F F F+ -9 F C- C
 Wed, Nov 26 152 Troy L 64 - 74 8% +2  62% 0 - 6 D -10 F -14 C- F F B+ +5 C- C- A+
 Mon, Dec 1 84 @Xavier L 74 - 96 2% -13  0% 0 - 7 D- -12 D -5 C- C D D -5 C- D D+
 Sun, Dec 7 233 @Radford L 56 - 89 10% -17  1% 0 - 8 F -34 F -20 F F D F -14 F F C
 Sun, Dec 14 156 @Temple L 67 - 95 6% -17  0% 0 - 9 F -25 D- -8 D+ C+ D F -18 F A C-
 Wed, Dec 17 4 @Florida L 61 - 102 0% -25  0% 0 - 10 D- -14 D+ -2 C C- C+ F -11 F F A
 Sat, Dec 20 179 Robert Morris L 70 - 79 16% -2  38% 0 - 11 D- -13 C- -2 C- A A F -12 F A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 2 300 Le Moyne L 58 - 84 36% -9  23% 0 - 12 0 - 1 F -37 F -20 F F C- F -19 F F C+
 Sun, Jan 4 333 Fairleigh Dickinson W 85 - 82 48% -0  30% 1 - 12 1 - 1 D- -11 C -0 D A C F -11 D D- F
 Thu, Jan 8 320 @Wagner W 71 - 69 23% -1  33% 2 - 12 2 - 1 D+ -5 D+ -3 C- C- D- C- -2 C F+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 219 @LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 67 9% -1  31% 2 - 13 2 - 2 C- -4 F -12 C F D- A- +8 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 303 Central Connecticut St. L 90 - 98 36% -7  0% 2 - 14 2 - 3 F -19 A- +10 B- A- A- F -30 F B F
 Mon, Jan 19 341 Stonehill W 63 - 61 51% -3  16% 3 - 14 3 - 3 D- -13 F -12 F C- B- C- -2 D- C- A+
 Fri, Jan 23 347 Chicago St. W 81 - 60 54% +13  97% 4 - 14 4 - 3 B- +5 C +1 A+ F C- B +5 C+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 31 321 New Haven L 69 - 81 44% -5  17% 4 - 15 4 - 4 F -25 D- -6 D- C- C+ F -20 F C- F+
 Thu, Feb 5 290 @Mercyhurst L 89 - 98 OT 17% -3  23% 4 - 16 4 - 5 D- -14 B- +4 B+ F+ D+ F -17 C F B-
 Sat, Feb 7 300 @Le Moyne L 84 - 86 18% +3  72% 4 - 17 4 - 6 D+ -7 C- -1 C+ C D+ D- -6 F B A+
 Mon, Feb 9 347 @Chicago St. L 75 - 80 31% -7  10% 4 - 18 4 - 7 F+ -15 D- -6 D- C+ F F+ -8 C- F B
 Thu, Feb 12 333 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 59 - 66 27% -5  3% 4 - 19 4 - 8 F+ -15 F -17 F C- C C+ +1 D- F A
 Sat, Feb 14 290 Mercyhurst L 79 - 94 34% -9  7% 4 - 20 4 - 9 F -26 C +1 A- F B+ F -27 F F D
 Thu, Feb 19 219 LIU Brooklyn L 89 - 91 21% -1  37% 4 - 21 4 - 10 D -8 B- +4 A+ F F F -12 F A F
 Sat, Feb 21 320 Wagner L 56 - 65 43% -3  7% 4 - 22 4 - 11 F -22 F -22 F F+ F C -1 C+ B- A-
 Tue, Feb 24 321 @New Haven L 66 - 74 23%
 Thu, Feb 26 341 @Stonehill L 66 - 72 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 303 @Central Connecticut St. L 71 - 81 19%
Totals 5 - 24 5 - 13 -15 D- -7 C- D+ D+ F+ -8 C D D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- C- D- C D+ 34% 45% 41% D+ D+ D+ D D D D- D D- F+ F C+ F+ F 41% 15% 44% D F D D- D- B- D- C D-
0.99 55% 32% 34% -2 -1 0.96 27% 0.9 .25 19% .26 69% .18 1.20 69% 37% 39% +7 +1 1.19 33% 1.2 .39 18% .36 72% .19
Nov
3		 Oklahoma F A- F D D+ 34% 38% 28% F+ D C F D D- F D+ F F F F C+ D 57% 2% 41% F F+ F+ F+ F B- B- B- B
0.89 65% 23% 31% -5 -3 0.88 30% 0.8 .25 19% .17 70% .12 1.38 70% 100% 33% +7 +4 1.24 40% 1.4 .57 15% .29 72% .21
Nov
6		 TCU F+ D F B D+ 46% 21% 33% B- C- F C- F C F A+ F F F F D- F 35% 9% 56% D F F D- F A- F F F
0.81 50% 25% 37% -5 0 0.93 13% 1.0 .13 21% .10 83% .08 1.34 74% 60% 39% +11 +1 1.27 47% 1.2 .56 19% .45 86% .38
Nov
11		 Mount St. Mary's F C D F F+ 28% 30% 42% F+ F+ A- F F+ D D+ D+ D+ D- F F+ F F 29% 15% 56% B F B+ C+ B C+ D+ A+ A
0.96 56% 35% 25% -7 -2 0.84 38% 0.5 .19 16% .31 72% .22 1.07 79% 43% 41% +12 0 1.27 23% 1.0 .23 23% .34 39% .13
Nov
18		 Lehigh F F B C- F 43% 27% 31% C- F D- A+ C+ F F D- F D+ D F C- D- 43% 16% 41% F D- F F+ F B F A- F
0.85 33% 46% 33% -9 0 0.84 28% 1.3 .36 25% .24 69% .16 1.08 62% 50% 35% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.1 .35 20% .45 65% .29
Nov
24		 Belmont F F A+ F F 33% 15% 52% B- F D F F F C D+ C- F+ D B+ F F 42% 6% 53% D F B F C- C A- F B-
0.79 41% 50% 22% -13 0 0.77 27% 0.7 .20 24% .27 73% .20 1.31 68% 33% 50% +17 +2 1.40 24% 1.5 .36 18% .24 79% .19
Nov
26		 Troy F F B- A+ C 30% 28% 41% D- C- C F F F B- B B B+ C- A B- 57% 0% 43% F C- F B C- A+ F A+ F
0.87 36% 46% 42% +1 -2 1.00 31% 0.6 .20 30% .31 75% .23 1.01 58% 28% -4 +4 1.02 40% 0.9 .34 26% .55 63% .35
Dec
1		 Xavier D C- F B- C- 37% 25% 39% C C- F A+ C D D A+ C D D- F A- C+ 43% 12% 46% F C- F+ C D D+ B A- B+
0.95 57% 29% 36% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.3 .23 19% .24 80% .19 1.24 69% 50% 29% +3 +1 1.10 33% 1.0 .33 10% .22 67% .14
Dec
7		 Radford F F B- C- F 31% 23% 46% D- F F+ F F D F C F F D- D+ F F 35% 9% 56% D F D F F C A+ C+ A+
0.81 38% 42% 33% -6 -1 0.88 24% 0.7 .17 20% .13 71% .09 1.28 63% 40% 40% +7 +1 1.19 32% 1.6 .52 17% .24 71% .17
Dec
14		 Temple D- C F D- D- 46% 15% 38% B D+ C- A- C+ D F F F F D+ F F F 48% 6% 46% F F A+ F A C- A+ F A
0.97 58% 25% 30% -4 +1 0.96 27% 1.2 .32 17% .23 54% .12 1.37 62% 67% 60% +21 +3 1.50 14% 1.3 .18 13% .23 86% .20
Dec
17		 Florida D+ C+ A- F B- 30% 44% 26% F C C D+ C- C+ F B- F+ F F F F+ F 41% 8% 51% C F F F F A F+ F F
0.84 53% 44% 20% -4 -4 0.86 21% 0.6 .13 17% .18 73% .13 1.41 81% 75% 38% +16 +2 1.37 54% 1.3 .71 21% .42 83% .35
Dec
20		 Robert Morris C- B- F A- C 31% 24% 45% D- C- D A+ A A F F F F C- A+ F F 42% 11% 47% F F A+ B A+ C+ F F+ F
1.10 63% 17% 39% 0 -1 1.00 25% 1.7 .42 11% .18 50% .09 1.24 58% 20% 52% +11 +2 1.27 24% 1.0 .24 19% .44 74% .33
Jan
2		 Le Moyne F D- F C- F+ 24% 28% 48% F F D+ F F C- B F D F D- C F F 38% 17% 45% C F F F F C+ A- A+ A+
0.86 50% 21% 33% -7 -2 0.84 28% 0.5 .14 15% .35 55% .19 1.25 67% 38% 52% +16 0 1.34 38% 1.3 .48 21% .26 57% .15
Jan
4		 Fairleigh Dickinson C F A B D+ 22% 24% 53% F+ D D A+ A C A+ A+ A+ F F F A+ D- 33% 24% 43% B D A F D- F F F F
1.18 45% 50% 38% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.7 .40 15% .49 83% .41 1.14 69% 50% 24% 0 -1 1.00 23% 1.6 .37 13% .52 79% .41
Jan
8		 Wagner D+ B C- D+ C 40% 17% 44% C- C- D+ C+ C- D- C- A+ B- C- F A+ A+ C- 35% 26% 39% B- C F C+ F+ C+ F A D
1.09 63% 38% 33% +1 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 17% .35 84% .30 1.06 88% 17% 22% -2 -1 0.96 42% 1.0 .42 20% .37 63% .23
Jan
10		 LIU Brooklyn F F F+ A+ C+ 38% 26% 36% D- C F A+ F D- F F F A- A B+ A+ A+ 47% 33% 20% B A+ F F F A+ F B+ F
0.88 42% 31% 50% +1 -1 1.02 10% 1.3 .13 21% .25 57% .14 0.94 48% 33% 0% -17 -1 0.67 51% 1.2 .61 27% .48 60% .29
Jan
17		 Central Connecticut St. A- B- C+ A A- 18% 30% 52% F B- A C+ A- A- A F B+ F F D F F 28% 34% 38% B- F A+ F B F F C- F
1.32 60% 41% 41% +7 -3 1.11 41% 1.1 .44 9% .35 73% .26 1.43 85% 44% 56% +22 -2 1.40 16% 1.3 .20 10% .55 79% .44
Jan
19		 Stonehill F F F C- F 45% 25% 29% C- F D B+ C- B- A+ F A+ C- C- A+ C- D 50% 5% 45% F D- B- D- C- A+ F F F
0.93 43% 15% 33% -13 0 0.76 23% 1.2 .28 10% .46 61% .28 0.90 55% 0% 33% -4 +3 1.00 25% 1.0 .25 31% .45 76% .34
Jan
23		 Chicago St. C A+ F+ A+ A+ 28% 22% 50% F A+ F+ F F C- D A+ C B B- A+ D- C+ 26% 38% 36% B C+ F A+ C B+ B+ A+ A+
1.21 92% 30% 48% +18 -1 1.37 27% 0.7 .18 19% .30 88% .26 0.90 50% 25% 37% -6 -3 0.85 37% 0.7 .26 19% .20 45% .09
Jan
31		 New Haven D- B- F D D- 44% 18% 38% C D- D B+ C- C+ B+ F C+ F F A+ F F 36% 20% 43% C- F B F C- F+ F F F
1.04 64% 11% 32% -4 +1 0.96 23% 1.3 .29 15% .32 67% .21 1.22 81% 0% 53% +13 0 1.27 19% 1.2 .22 15% .48 78% .37
Feb
5		 Mercyhurst B- C- B- A+ A- 44% 18% 39% C B+ C- F F+ D+ C- D D+ F A- F A B- 41% 22% 37% F C F F F B- F F F
1.15 56% 40% 45% +6 +1 1.16 32% 0.8 .24 19% .35 68% .24 1.27 45% 58% 25% -6 0 0.91 49% 1.4 .67 17% .47 80% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Le Moyne C- F F A+ B 29% 29% 43% F C+ C- B C D+ A+ F B D- F B F F 55% 7% 38% F F C+ A B A+ F B- F
1.09 38% 25% 54% +3 -2 1.05 29% 1.2 .34 16% .42 63% .26 1.12 87% 33% 44% +21 +3 1.50 23% 0.8 .18 27% .56 68% .38
Feb
9		 Chicago St. D- A+ A+ F F+ 32% 7% 61% C+ D- C B- C+ F A+ C- A+ F+ D A B C 38% 24% 38% F C- F F F B F D F
1.06 93% 67% 19% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.2 .41 25% .53 75% .40 1.13 59% 27% 29% -5 -1 0.91 40% 1.2 .49 18% .57 79% .45
Feb
12		 Fairleigh Dickinson F F F F F 37% 16% 47% C+ F B+ F C- C C+ D+ C C+ F F A+ F 28% 28% 44% A D- B F F A F A+ F
0.90 50% 25% 22% -14 0 0.76 36% 0.7 .24 15% .36 70% .25 1.01 80% 60% 19% +2 -2 1.03 28% 1.8 .48 23% .56 57% .32
Feb
14		 Mercyhurst C B+ F+ A+ A- 55% 15% 30% B A- F C- F B+ A+ F A F F F F F 38% 22% 40% F F F F F D F F F
1.15 65% 29% 43% +7 +2 1.19 19% 1.0 .19 15% .56 61% .34 1.37 79% 55% 40% +15 0 1.32 33% 1.5 .50 13% .30 89% .27
Feb
19		 LIU Brooklyn B- D+ A A+ A+ 55% 12% 33% B+ A+ B- F F F B- A+ A- F F C+ F F 60% 24% 16% F+ F B- A+ A F D- A+ C
1.16 54% 50% 65% +14 +2 1.35 38% 0.5 .21 27% .36 80% .29 1.18 73% 38% 56% +14 +1 1.33 32% 0.6 .21 16% .34 55% .18
Feb
21		 Wagner F D F D- F 44% 17% 40% C F B- F F+ F D- F F C F A+ A C+ 25% 18% 57% C+ C+ D A B- A- F F F
0.86 52% 13% 32% -8 +1 0.88 33% 0.6 .21 18% .32 47% .15 1.00 73% 25% 28% -4 -1 0.93 35% 0.8 .29 23% .46 78% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.5 0.5 7th
8th 1.3 0.8 2.1 8th
9th 25.3 11.6 0.3 37.1 9th
10th 44.7 15.2 0.3 60.3 10th
Total 44.7 40.5 13.2 1.6 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9 1.6% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
6-10 13.2% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.4 12.8
5-11 40.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.8 39.7
4-12 44.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.6 44.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 16.0 98.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 34.2%