St. Peter's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.1 #235
Expected Predictive Rating -3.0 #213
Pace 64.3 #301
Improvement +3.9 #35

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #275 D- C+ C- C+ C-
Defense #166 C D B F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #284 0.99 #345 -5.1 #338
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #163 0.72 #230 +0.0 #174
Three Pointers 44% #131 0.89 #329 -1.3 #230
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #344 -6.4 #344
Freethrows 0.31 #171 75% #79 0.23 #131
Second Chance 35.1% #61 0.97 #262 0.34 #119
Turnovers 17.8% #255
Total Offense -4.0 #275

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #75 1.14 #155 -2.1 #251
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #241 0.69 #74 +1.4 #75
Three Pointers 39% #247 1.03 #209 +0.8 #144
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #179 +0.1 #180
Freethrows 0.40 #362 74% #275 0.30 #362
Second Chance 35.3% #332 1.03 #194 0.37 #306
Turnovers 19.2% #50
Total Defense -0.1 #166

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #240 1.2% #277
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.0% #346 -1.3% #157
Possession Length 19.0 #336 16.6 #66
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #85 0.21 #299
Improvement +1.2 #118 +2.7 #46

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 10.6% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 87.3% 94.9% 74.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 100.0% 98.8%
Conference Champion 13.0% 17.7% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 1.2% 1.5%
First Round8.7% 10.0% 6.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Away) - 62.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 413 - 616 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 53 @Seton Hall L 50 - 77 6% -16  0 - 1 -14 -4 F C C- -14 C F D
 Sat, Nov 8 343 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93 - 83 84% +7  1 - 1 -5 +8 B- C+ C -13 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 61 - 78 6% -10  1 - 2 -4 -6 F B- D +2 D- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 286 @Delaware L 70 - 81 50% -14  1 - 3 -15 -1 C D- B- -15 F C+ B-
 Sat, Nov 22 314 Umass Lowell W 68 - 66 78% +2  2 - 3 -10 -12 F A- F+ +2 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 29 229 Dartmouth L 61 - 87 60% -7  2 - 4 -33 -11 F C D- -23 F F D-
 Fri, Dec 5 345 Canisius W 69 - 57 84% +6  3 - 4 1 - 0 -3 -3 F A- C- +2 A+ D- C
 Sun, Dec 7 349 Niagara W 71 - 43 85% +13  4 - 4 2 - 0 +13 +2 D A C+ +15 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 78 @Georgetown L 68 - 76 OT 10% -7  4 - 5 +2 -1 D- F+ C +3 C+ D A+
 Mon, Dec 29 272 @Fairfield W 70 - 66 47% -1  5 - 5 3 - 0 +1 -3 F D C +3 B+ F+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 161 Marist W 69 - 59 47% +3  6 - 5 4 - 0 +7 +1 F A+ B- +6 A+ A- C+
 Fri, Jan 9 289 @Mount St. Mary's L 65 - 70 51% -1  6 - 6 4 - 1 -9 -6 F D F+ -4 A- F D+
 Sun, Jan 11 201 Merrimack W 76 - 63 56% +9  7 - 6 5 - 1 +7 +12 A A D- -3 A- F B+
 Wed, Jan 14 186 @Quinnipiac W 74 - 70 31% +4  8 - 6 6 - 1 +5 +3 B- F D+ +2 C C- D+
 Sat, Jan 17 352 Rider W 69 - 58 86% +4  9 - 6 7 - 1 -5 -3 D B+ D -0 C+ F A+
 Mon, Jan 19 231 Iona W 77 - 63 61% +3  10 - 6 8 - 1 +7 +5 B D D +3 A+ D+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 201 @Merrimack L 59 - 67 33% -11  10 - 7 8 - 2 -8 -5 F B- F -3 C D- B-
 Fri, Jan 30 289 Mount St. Mary's W 66 - 58 73% +1  11 - 7 9 - 2 -2 -0 D C+ C- -1 B- D A-
 Sun, Feb 1 352 @Rider L 78 - 81 71% +6  11 - 8 9 - 3 -13 +6 D- A+ C -19 F A+ C-
 Thu, Feb 5 327 @Manhattan W 74 - 71 63%
 Sat, Feb 7 174 Siena L 67 - 68 49%
 Fri, Feb 13 276 @Sacred Heart L 73 - 74 48%
 Sun, Feb 15 272 Fairfield W 73 - 68 68%
 Fri, Feb 20 231 @Iona L 68 - 71 40%
 Sun, Feb 22 174 @Siena L 65 - 71 29%
 Fri, Feb 27 327 Manhattan W 77 - 68 81%
 Sun, Mar 1 161 @Marist L 60 - 67 27%
Totals 15 - 12 13 - 7 -4 -4 D- C+ C- +0 C D B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.6 6.6 3.2 0.5 13.0 1st
2nd 0.0 2.4 10.9 4.8 0.5 0.0 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 10.6 7.3 0.3 19.4 3rd
4th 0.8 7.8 11.0 0.9 20.4 4th
5th 0.2 5.3 10.6 2.5 18.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.3 1.3 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.4 3.3 11.1 20.9 26.6 21.7 11.8 3.7 0.6 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 95.6% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-4 86.4% 3.2    2.3 0.9 0.0
15-5 56.2% 6.6    1.9 3.2 1.4 0.1
14-6 11.8% 2.6    0.0 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.1
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.0% 13.0 4.7 4.6 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.6% 20.4% 20.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 3.7% 16.6% 16.6% 14.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.1
15-5 11.8% 15.4% 15.4% 15.1 0.2 1.2 0.4 10.0
14-6 21.7% 12.5% 12.5% 15.4 0.1 1.3 1.3 19.0
13-7 26.6% 9.4% 9.4% 15.6 0.0 1.0 1.5 24.1
12-8 20.9% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.2 1.0 19.7
11-9 11.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.4 10.8
10-10 3.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
9-11 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 15.4 90.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.7 17.4 13.0 52.2 17.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.2%