St. Peter's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#206
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#193
Pace59.7#356
Improvement-0.5#217

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#245
First Shot-4.7#309
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#68
Layup/Dunks-7.6#357
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#255
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#75
Freethrows+0.8#123
Improvement-0.4#203

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#147
First Shot+0.4#159
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#163
Layups/Dunks-1.8#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#7
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#35
Freethrows-4.9#362
Improvement-0.1#188
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.9% 20.0% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 82.4% 87.9% 69.3%
.500 or above in Conference 80.5% 86.5% 66.1%
Conference Champion 14.3% 18.1% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.6% 2.9%
First Four1.6% 1.4% 2.0%
First Round17.1% 19.4% 11.7%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Home) - 70.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 32 - 5
Quad 415 - 717 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 115   @ Seton Hall L 53-57 22%     0 - 1 +1.9 -6.2 +7.7
  Nov 08, 2024 144   @ Umass Lowell L 74-81 29%     0 - 2 -3.4 +0.9 -4.3
  Nov 11, 2024 63   @ Rutgers L 65-75 11%     0 - 3 +1.4 +2.6 -1.9
  Nov 16, 2024 245   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 69-61 48%     1 - 3 +6.4 +4.9 +2.8
  Nov 26, 2024 333   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-76 69%     2 - 3 -5.2 +3.6 -8.7
  Dec 03, 2024 163   @ Duquesne W 62-59 32%     3 - 3 +5.8 +3.9 +2.4
  Dec 06, 2024 279   Manhattan L 67-70 76%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -12.4 -11.4 -1.0
  Dec 08, 2024 247   @ Iona L 63-72 49%     3 - 5 0 - 2 -10.8 -5.2 -6.1
  Dec 20, 2024 215   Delaware W 72-64 64%     4 - 5 +2.3 +5.5 -1.9
  Jan 03, 2025 249   Quinnipiac W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 10, 2025 320   @ Niagara W 65-61 64%    
  Jan 12, 2025 353   @ Canisius W 70-62 76%    
  Jan 16, 2025 231   Marist W 63-58 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 295   @ Sacred Heart W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 23, 2025 195   Merrimack W 63-60 59%    
  Jan 31, 2025 303   @ Rider W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 02, 2025 234   Mount St. Mary's W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 06, 2025 304   @ Siena W 63-60 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 279   @ Manhattan W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 14, 2025 297   Fairfield W 71-63 77%    
  Feb 16, 2025 303   Rider W 68-59 78%    
  Feb 21, 2025 234   @ Mount St. Mary's L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 23, 2025 295   Sacred Heart W 71-63 77%    
  Feb 28, 2025 249   @ Quinnipiac L 67-68 49%    
  Mar 02, 2025 231   @ Marist L 60-61 45%    
  Mar 06, 2025 320   Niagara W 68-58 81%    
  Mar 08, 2025 353   Canisius W 73-59 89%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.5 3.9 1.8 0.5 14.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.2 5.8 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.1 6.1 2.7 0.5 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 5.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.1 3.7 0.5 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.8 0.8 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.1 1.2 0.1 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.6 0.2 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.3 7.9 11.2 13.4 14.4 14.0 11.7 8.4 4.9 1.9 0.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 98.4% 0.5    0.5 0.0
17-3 93.7% 1.8    1.6 0.2 0.0
16-4 80.5% 3.9    2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 54.1% 4.5    2.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-6 23.8% 2.8    0.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 5.2% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.3% 14.3 7.8 4.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.5% 55.5% 55.5% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.9% 45.0% 45.0% 13.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1
16-4 4.9% 40.0% 40.0% 13.8 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.9
15-5 8.4% 33.3% 33.3% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.0 5.6
14-6 11.7% 27.5% 27.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.3 8.5
13-7 14.0% 22.2% 22.2% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.9 10.9
12-8 14.4% 17.7% 17.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.2 11.9
11-9 13.4% 11.1% 11.1% 15.6 0.0 0.5 1.0 11.9
10-10 11.2% 7.7% 7.7% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 10.3
9-11 7.9% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 7.5
8-12 5.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.2 5.1
7-13 3.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 3.2
6-14 1.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-15 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.5 4.0 7.1 4.8 82.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.0 17.0 67.4 15.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%