Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 217
Results Rating -1.8 192
Pace 63.3 322
Improvement -1.7 248

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 298 D+ C F C- C-
Defense C+ 126 C+ C B C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 341 C- 56% 213 -4.8 336
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 249 C+ 39% 124 -0.7 218
Three Pointers 51% 20 D 31% 295 +2.8 86
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 216 D+ -2.5 267
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 264
Second Chance B 35.6% 45 D- 0.89 340 C 0.32 161
Turnovers F 21.2% 356
Freethrows C+ 0.31 153 F+ 66% 349 C- 0.21 226
Total Offense D -4.9 298

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 152 C 10.6% 155
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 227 C+ 4.5% 142
Three Pointers B+ 92% 27 C 0.9% 195
Total B 61% 68 B 4.6% 70

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 324 D 63% 306 -1.8 114
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 147 B 34% 40 -0.7 132
Three Pointers 46% 42 B- 32% 99 +1.3 248
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 89 C+ -0.7 157
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 133
Second Chance D+ 33.3% 296 B- 0.95 68 C 0.32 201
Turnovers B 19.0% 61
Freethrows D+ 0.33 254 B 70% 56 C- 0.23 224
Total Defense C+ +1.7 126

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 60% 353 C 10.8% 182
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 163 A+ 11.6% 5
Three Pointers D 89% 328 B+ 1.9% 39
Total D- 64% 338 B- 6.9% 85

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 300 17.5 235
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 148 0.22 333
Improvement -2.6 #308 +1.0 #129

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 245 220 190
Results Rating Rank 225 199 136
Conference Record 12 - 8 14 - 6 14 - 6
Conference Finish 4 3 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22% 23% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 16% 20% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 2%
First Round22% 23% 16%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 79.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 31 - 22 - 4
Quad 417 - 620 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 118 @UNLV W 86 - 81 19% -1  43% 1 - 0 B +11 C +0 C C+ C A +10 A- F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 112 @Bradley W 78 - 67 18% +2  64% 2 - 0 A- +17 C+ +2 A+ A F A+ +15 A+ D A
 Tue, Nov 18 80 @Florida St. L 73 - 87 11% -6  12% 2 - 1 C- -4 D+ -3 B+ A+ F C+ +1 C- A- F
 Sat, Nov 22 331 Prairie View W 69 - 68 78% -2  38% 3 - 1 D -10 F -11 D- F F C+ +1 B+ C C
 Sun, Nov 23 241 Southern Miss L 60 - 70 54% -14  0% 3 - 2 D- -14 C -0 C+ D- B- F -17 F+ F F
 Tue, Dec 2 268 Charleston Southern W 73 - 56 71% +5  77% 4 - 2 B- +8 C- -2 D D+ C A +11 A+ C B
 Sun, Dec 7 312 Alabama St. W 74 - 64 80% -0  34% 5 - 2 C- -2 C- -1 F+ B+ D+ C -1 F A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 10 125 @Southern Illinois L 54 - 83 20% -9  15% 5 - 3 F -23 F -13 F+ F F F -10 F F B-
 Thu, Dec 18 224 @Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 40% +1  61% 5 - 4 0 - 1 D+ -8 D- -7 F C+ F+ C -1 D- B D
 Sat, Dec 20 309 @Tennessee Tech W 86 - 62 59% +7  85% 6 - 4 1 - 1 A +18 A+ +17 A+ F A- B +4 F A A
 Thu, Jan 1 362 Western Illinois W 67 - 60 94% -2  27% 7 - 4 2 - 1 D- -14 F -11 F F B+ C- -2 F+ A B+
 Sat, Jan 3 324 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 61 83% -0  41% 8 - 4 3 - 1 D -9 F -10 F A F C+ +1 C+ A C
 Thu, Jan 8 280 @Morehead St. W 76 - 68 52% -3  28% 9 - 4 4 - 1 C+ +4 B +6 B B- D+ C -1 C- F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 339 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 56 71% +2  52% 10 - 4 5 - 1 B +8 B- +5 C+ A+ F B+ +5 A- D- B-
 Thu, Jan 15 260 SIU Edwardsville W 65 - 59 70% +3  71% 11 - 4 6 - 1 C- -3 D+ -4 D B+ D+ C+ +2 B+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 272 Lindenwood W 69 - 55 72% +10  96% 12 - 4 7 - 1 C+ +5 F+ -10 C- C- F A+ +14 A+ B- A
 Tue, Jan 20 222 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 66 39% -18  0% 12 - 5 7 - 2 F+ -16 F -18 F C F C+ +0 C+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 29 324 @Eastern Illinois W 76 - 68 66% +7  94% 13 - 5 8 - 2 C +1 B- +4 A+ C- F C- -3 C+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 362 @Western Illinois W 84 - 44 87% +21  98% 14 - 5 9 - 2 A+ +25 B+ +9 C A+ C A+ +19 A- A+ A
 Tue, Feb 3 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 55 - 52 77% +1  69% 15 - 5 10 - 2 D -8 F -19 F+ D+ F A+ +11 B- C- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 339 Southern Indiana W 76 - 54 86% +13  91% 16 - 5 11 - 2 B- +7 C+ +3 C- A+ F B+ +6 A- B B-
 Sat, Feb 7 280 Morehead St. L 55 - 61 73% -0  37% 16 - 6 11 - 3 F+ -16 F -19 F D- C B- +2 B- C- B+
 Thu, Feb 12 272 @Lindenwood L 74 - 75 50% +0  47% 16 - 7 11 - 4 C- -4 C +0 A- C F D+ -4 F A- A
 Sat, Feb 14 260 @SIU Edwardsville W 81 - 76 48% +2  53% 17 - 7 12 - 4 C+ +2 A +11 A+ C- F F+ -9 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 17 222 Southeast Missouri St. L 53 - 56 OT 62% -5  2% 17 - 8 12 - 5 D -9 F -24 F F C- A+ +14 A+ C A+
 Thu, Feb 19 299 @Arkansas Little Rock L 65 - 67 57% +2  67% 17 - 9 12 - 6 D+ -7 C- -2 F B B+ D -6 D F B-
 Thu, Feb 26 309 Tennessee Tech W 72 - 64 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 224 Tennessee St. W 74 - 71 63%
Totals 18 - 10 13 - 7 -3 D -5 D+ D+ C- C+ +2 D F+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- C+ D D+ 31% 32% 51% C- D+ B D- C F C+ F+ C- C+ D B B- C+ 33% 21% 46% B- C+ D+ B- C B D+ B C-
1.02 56% 39% 31% -2 0 0.97 36% 0.9 .32 21% .31 66% .21 1.06 63% 34% 32% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.0 .32 19% .33 70% .22
Nov
4		 UNLV C F+ A+ C C- 30% 12% 58% C+ C C- A- C+ C A+ F A+ A D B A A- 33% 19% 49% C+ A- C+ F F A+ F D- F
1.07 47% 50% 34% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.3 .35 17% .73 56% .41 1.01 64% 38% 29% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.5 .47 27% .64 76% .48
Nov
12		 Bradley C+ B A+ A+ A+ 39% 9% 52% A+ A+ D+ A+ A F C+ F D+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 18% 40% D- A+ C+ F D A F F+ F
1.06 65% 50% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 1.6 .42 31% .34 65% .22 0.91 63% 13% 6% -19 +1 0.64 26% 1.3 .33 19% .62 81% .51
Nov
18		 Florida St. D+ D- A+ A- A- 31% 18% 51% C+ B+ A- A+ A+ F A+ B A+ C+ D+ A+ C- C- 45% 9% 46% D C- C- A+ A- F D+ A+ B
0.97 50% 63% 39% +6 0 1.13 37% 1.2 .43 34% .42 76% .32 1.15 64% 20% 35% +1 +2 1.09 33% 0.9 .29 8% .33 57% .19
Nov
22		 Prairie View F B- A+ F D- 40% 18% 43% C D- F+ F F F A+ D A+ C+ C C A+ B- 23% 45% 32% A+ B+ D B+ C C F D+ F
0.99 63% 57% 24% -2 +1 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 23% .56 70% .39 0.98 55% 38% 20% -7 -4 0.79 27% 0.9 .24 16% .53 77% .41
Nov
23		 Southern Miss C D+ A+ C C+ 38% 20% 43% C- C+ C+ F D- B- A F C F F B- F F 31% 33% 36% B F+ F D- F F B+ A+ A+
1.08 53% 63% 35% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.7 .20 16% .43 55% .23 1.25 71% 33% 38% +4 -2 1.07 42% 1.2 .48 14% .31 53% .17
Dec
2		 Charleston Southern C- B F F+ D- 27% 15% 58% B- D A F D+ C A+ A- A+ A F+ D+ A+ A+ 19% 10% 71% A- A+ D+ B- C B B- A B
1.11 62% 14% 29% -7 0 0.88 40% 0.7 .27 12% .55 78% .43 0.85 67% 40% 24% -9 0 0.83 31% 0.8 .26 21% .23 58% .13
Dec
7		 Alabama St. C- D- A+ F F+ 28% 17% 54% D F+ A+ D B+ D+ A- F F C F B F F 36% 28% 36% B- F B+ A+ A+ B- F+ A+ C-
1.12 54% 50% 28% -4 0 0.93 45% 1.0 .45 20% .43 48% .21 0.97 71% 31% 41% +6 -1 1.13 25% 0.4 .09 20% .36 58% .21
Dec
10		 Southern Illinois F F D F F 28% 12% 60% B- F+ C F F F D D+ D F F B F F 52% 22% 26% F F D+ F F B- F+ C+ D-
0.77 43% 33% 27% -11 0 0.80 29% 0.5 .16 27% .24 67% .16 1.19 73% 36% 38% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 19% .37 67% .25
Dec
18		 Tennessee St. D- F A+ F F 43% 16% 41% C- F B D+ C+ F+ A+ C- A+ C D D- C- F 41% 43% 17% A- D- A D B D C- D+ D+
1.00 47% 57% 22% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 72% .38 1.10 64% 43% 33% +4 -3 1.06 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 78% .23
Dec
20		 Tennessee Tech A+ A A+ A+ A+ 27% 22% 51% D A+ D+ F F A- D- A D+ B F F B- F 18% 24% 58% A F B- A+ A A B- C+ B-
1.36 71% 55% 46% +17 -1 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 11% .23 85% .19 0.98 88% 55% 31% +6 -2 1.11 27% 0.8 .21 24% .25 75% .19
Jan
1		 Western Illinois F C F A- F 50% 38% 12% F F B- F F B+ A+ D- A+ C- F+ A+ F F 17% 36% 47% A+ F+ F A+ A B+ A F+ B
1.05 62% 19% 40% -4 -1 0.90 38% 0.5 .21 11% .54 68% .37 0.94 63% 18% 45% +1 -4 0.98 41% 0.3 .13 20% .22 73% .16
Jan
3		 Eastern Illinois F F A+ F F 22% 15% 63% D F C A+ A F A+ A A+ C+ F B- A+ C 18% 33% 49% A C+ D A+ A C F A+ F
0.97 44% 67% 19% -13 0 0.76 34% 1.5 .50 27% .53 85% .45 0.91 67% 31% 25% -7 -3 0.82 30% 0.5 .16 18% .42 65% .27
Jan
8		 Morehead St. B B- A A- B+ 36% 18% 45% D+ B A D B- D+ A+ D- A+ C D B+ A- C+ 47% 13% 40% F C- F B+ F+ B+ F B+ D-
1.23 63% 50% 40% +8 0 1.18 46% 0.8 .39 16% .52 67% .35 1.10 62% 33% 28% -3 +2 1.00 51% 0.8 .40 21% .39 68% .27
Jan
10		 Southern Indiana B- D F A+ C 53% 14% 33% B+ C+ A+ C+ A+ F A A- A+ B+ A+ B B+ A 30% 23% 48% C+ A- D F+ D- B- F B F
1.17 52% 17% 50% +2 +2 1.09 53% 1.0 .53 22% .41 80% .33 0.89 23% 30% 29% -16 -1 0.68 32% 1.0 .32 19% .57 62% .36
Jan
15		 SIU Edwardsville D+ C+ A+ F D 15% 17% 67% D+ D B B B+ D+ A+ F A+ C+ A+ F A+ B 22% 41% 37% A+ B+ B- D+ C+ F C- A+ A-
1.02 57% 50% 26% -6 -1 0.87 38% 1.1 .41 17% .50 65% .32 0.93 42% 55% 15% -7 -4 0.80 25% 1.1 .27 9% .28 44% .12
Jan
17		 Lindenwood F+ B- C C- C+ 35% 26% 39% F+ C- C+ D- C- F F C+ F A+ B+ C A+ A+ 18% 47% 36% A+ A+ C+ B B- A F B F
0.97 63% 36% 33% +1 -1 1.02 34% 0.9 .31 24% .20 73% .15 0.77 50% 33% 13% -15 -5 0.62 29% 1.0 .29 24% .50 63% .31
Jan
20		 Southeast Missouri St. F D+ F+ F F 36% 8% 56% B F A+ F C F A+ F C+ C+ C+ A- C+ C+ 27% 15% 58% B- C+ F B F B- C A+ B+
0.78 54% 33% 20% -14 +1 0.78 46% 0.7 .31 33% .51 59% .30 1.03 54% 29% 32% -4 0 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 19% .33 53% .17
Jan
29		 Eastern Illinois B- A A+ A+ A+ 34% 7% 59% B- A+ B F+ C- F A F C+ C- F A+ A+ C+ 38% 28% 34% D+ C+ D+ C D+ F F A+ F
1.12 71% 67% 42% +13 +1 1.32 39% 0.9 .36 30% .42 65% .27 1.01 65% 20% 22% -8 -1 0.83 30% 1.0 .30 12% .49 59% .29
Jan
31		 Western Illinois B+ B- A+ D C- 51% 8% 42% A- C A+ B+ A+ C C- B C A+ A+ B- B A+ 37% 14% 49% F A- A A+ A+ A D- C D-
1.30 67% 50% 32% +4 +3 1.15 48% 1.3 .63 14% .30 76% .23 0.68 25% 33% 29% -17 +1 0.70 18% 0.3 .06 22% .35 67% .24
Feb
3		 Arkansas Little Rock F A D+ D- F+ 20% 8% 73% C- F+ C- D+ D+ F F+ F F A+ C+ C- A+ B 41% 30% 28% D B- B- D- C- A+ A+ C A+
0.89 75% 33% 31% 0 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .29 27% .22 50% .11 0.84 58% 36% 23% -5 -1 0.89 28% 1.1 .31 27% .07 67% .04
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Southern Indiana C+ D+ A+ C- C 28% 26% 46% F C- A+ C+ A+ F B- F F+ B+ B A+ B- B+ 23% 34% 43% A+ A- D A+ B B- F D+ F
1.18 54% 50% 33% +1 -1 1.02 55% 1.0 .55 23% .35 53% .18 0.84 45% 13% 30% -14 -3 0.68 32% 0.6 .18 19% .42 68% .29
Feb
7		 Morehead St. F F D- F F 27% 7% 67% C F A F D- C A+ D A+ B- C+ A F C 22% 41% 37% A+ B- D- B- C- B+ F F F
0.91 42% 33% 20% -19 +1 0.67 45% 0.6 .25 15% .49 68% .33 1.01 56% 29% 40% -1 -4 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 22% .38 89% .34
Feb
12		 Lindenwood C A- F A+ A- 42% 11% 47% B- A- C+ D+ C F A- F D+ D+ F C C+ F 59% 13% 28% F F C A+ A- A B F C
1.07 68% 0% 43% +6 +2 1.18 33% 1.0 .33 25% .40 52% .21 1.08 78% 33% 31% +10 +2 1.26 31% 0.8 .23 25% .27 79% .21
Feb
14		 SIU Edwardsville A A C- A+ A+ 27% 18% 55% C A+ D- A- C- F A+ B A+ F+ A A+ F F+ 36% 11% 53% F F F F F A+ F D F
1.20 67% 38% 46% +12 0 1.25 27% 1.1 .31 21% .43 78% .34 1.12 44% 20% 46% +2 +1 1.09 41% 1.3 .51 27% .48 71% .34
Feb
17		 Southeast Missouri St. F D- F F F 30% 32% 38% F F C+ F F C- D F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 19% 40% C A+ F A+ C A+ F D F
0.74 50% 24% 15% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 18% .34 65% .22 0.78 40% 11% 21% -20 0 0.63 38% 0.9 .33 27% .46 71% .32
Feb
19		 Arkansas Little Rock C- C- F D F 31% 18% 51% D F A+ F+ B B+ F C- F D F A- F F 23% 47% 30% A+ D D F F B- F B+ F
1.09 60% 11% 32% -6 0 0.90 53% 0.7 .38 15% .20 70% .14 1.12 80% 25% 46% +5 -4 1.02 33% 1.6 .53 20% .38 61% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 15.8 15.8 1st
2nd 1.7 25.3 26.9 2nd
3rd 14.0 9.0 23.0 3rd
4th 8.3 26.0 34.3 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 8.3 41.6 50.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 31.6% 15.8    1.3 7.3 7.2
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 15.8% 15.8 1.3 7.3 7.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 50.1% 26.1% 26.1% 14.8 0.3 3.7 8.0 1.0 37.0
13-7 41.6% 18.5% 18.5% 15.4 0.0 0.4 4.1 3.2 33.9
12-8 8.3% 14.6% 14.6% 15.7 0.0 0.4 0.9 7.1
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.0% 22.0% 0.0% 15.0 78.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 13.1% 100.0% 14.8 2.0 28.6 61.4 7.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.7%
Lose Out 3.4%