Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.0 #235
Expected Predictive Rating +2.4 #131
Pace 65.6 #283
Improvement -3.3 #331

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #265 D D- B- F D+
Defense #200 C- D+ C C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #349 0.98 #337 -7.7 #358
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #186 0.85 #58 +0.8 #137
Three Pointers 50% #27 0.95 #262 +3.0 #92
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #285 -3.9 #284
Freethrows 14.1 #326 65% #341 9.2 #342
Second Chance 22.6% #350 1.10 #115 0.25 #312
Turnovers 15.5% #115
Total Offense -3.2 #265

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #327 1.40 #365 -0.2 #187
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #122 0.67 #78 +0.3 #166
Three Pointers 46% #55 0.97 #140 -1.5 #244
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #225 -1.4 #225
Freethrows 19.1 #271 71% #103 13.4 #124
Second Chance 40.7% #364 0.88 #24 0.36 #270
Turnovers 16.5% #191
Total Defense -0.8 #200

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #262 -1.3% #74
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.5% #280 4.1% #256
Possession Length 21.0 #364 17.4 #220
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #356 0.24 #341
Improvement -0.8 #239 -2.5 #327

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.5% 22.0% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 96.7% 98.7% 93.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 97.8% 89.9%
Conference Champion 32.0% 39.0% 19.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.2% 1.0% 1.5%
First Round18.8% 21.4% 14.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Away) - 63.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 32 - 43 - 5
Quad 417 - 619 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 142 @UNLV W 86 - 81 22%  -18  1 - 0 +9 +5 F D+ C +4 A F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 116 @Bradley W 78 - 67 16%  -9  2 - 0 +18 +6 A+ C- F +11 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 111 @Florida St. L 73 - 87 15%  -19  2 - 1 -7 -2 B+ D+ F -3 D A+ F
 Sat, Nov 22 306 Prairie View W 69 - 68 67%  -6  3 - 1 -8 -7 F F F -0 B+ C B-
 Sun, Nov 23 201 Southern Miss L 60 - 70 44%  -17  3 - 2 -12 +2 B F C -17 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 225 Charleston Southern W 73 - 56 60%  -7  4 - 2 +10 +2 C F F +9 A+ C- A+
 Sun, Dec 7 301 Alabama St. W 74 - 64 74%  -12  5 - 2 -1 -2 F D- F +1 F A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 10 130 @Southern Illinois L 54 - 83 20%  -15  5 - 3 -24 -14 F F F -10 F D+ B
 Thu, Dec 18 219 @Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 35%  -15  5 - 4 0 - 1 -7 -1 F F F -6 F B+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 313 @Tennessee Tech W 86 - 62 58%  -7  6 - 4 1 - 1 +18 +19 A F B+ +1 D- A- A+
 Thu, Jan 1 358 Western Illinois W 67 - 60 90%  -15  7 - 4 2 - 1 -11 -7 F F B -4 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 309 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 61 77%  -8  8 - 4 3 - 1 -8 -8 F C F -0 B+ A- C
 Thu, Jan 8 308 @Morehead St. W 76 - 68 57%  -15  9 - 4 4 - 1 +2 +10 D C+ D- -7 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 333 @Southern Indiana W 72 - 68 63% 
 Thu, Jan 15 275 SIU Edwardsville W 69 - 63 70% 
 Sat, Jan 17 240 Lindenwood W 74 - 71 62% 
 Tue, Jan 20 218 @Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 74 35% 
 Sat, Jan 24 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 73 - 66 73% 
 Thu, Jan 29 309 @Eastern Illinois W 67 - 65 56% 
 Sat, Jan 31 358 @Western Illinois W 71 - 63 77% 
 Thu, Feb 5 333 Southern Indiana W 75 - 65 81% 
 Sat, Feb 7 308 Morehead St. W 73 - 65 76% 
 Thu, Feb 12 240 @Lindenwood L 71 - 74 40% 
 Sat, Feb 14 275 @SIU Edwardsville L 65 - 66 48% 
 Tue, Feb 17 218 Southeast Missouri St. W 73 - 71 58% 
 Thu, Feb 19 299 @Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 69 52% 
 Thu, Feb 26 313 Tennessee Tech W 75 - 67 77% 
 Sat, Feb 28 219 Tennessee St. W 74 - 72 58% 
Totals 18 - 10 13 - 7 -4 -3 D D- B- -1 C- D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 5.8 9.4 8.5 5.1 1.7 0.3 32.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 6.3 8.1 4.4 0.9 0.0 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.6 7.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 16.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.1 5.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.0 1.3 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.2 0.1 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.1 6.4 10.2 14.1 16.7 16.8 14.1 9.4 5.1 1.7 0.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
17-3 99.2% 5.1    4.8 0.3 0.0
16-4 90.5% 8.5    6.6 1.8 0.1
15-5 66.1% 9.4    5.2 3.6 0.6 0.0
14-6 34.5% 5.8    1.7 2.6 1.3 0.2
13-7 6.9% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.0% 32.0 20.3 8.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.3% 41.8% 41.8% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.7% 45.2% 45.2% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.9
17-3 5.1% 41.3% 41.3% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.0 3.0
16-4 9.4% 36.3% 36.3% 14.7 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.3 6.0
15-5 14.1% 30.0% 30.0% 15.0 0.0 0.6 2.8 0.9 9.9
14-6 16.8% 24.1% 24.1% 15.3 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.5 12.8
13-7 16.7% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5 0.1 1.1 1.5 14.1
12-8 14.1% 8.6% 8.6% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.8 12.9
11-9 10.2% 5.9% 5.9% 15.8 0.1 0.5 9.6
10-10 6.4% 3.9% 3.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.1
9-11 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.0
8-12 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 15.0 80.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.6 42.9 50.0 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%