IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.4	#307
Expected Predictive Rating	-10.1	#324

Pace	68.1	#188
Improvement	-0.6	#216

Offense
Total Offense	-3.6	#269

First Shot	-6.9	#341
After Offensive Rebound	+3.3	#19

Layup/Dunks	+7.2	#8
2 Pt Jumpshots	-14.0	#364
3 Pt Jumpshots	-2.8	#269
Freethrows	+2.7	#40

Improvement	+5.0	#5

Defense
Total Defense	-4.9	#313

First Shot	-1.7	#233
After Offensive Rebounds	-3.2	#351

Layups/Dunks	+0.2	#163
2 Pt Jumpshots	+2.4	#17
3 Pt Jumpshots	-5.4	#345
Freethrows	+1.1	#107

Improvement	-5.6	#359

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.3%	3.6%	2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	16.0	16.0

.500 or above	2.2%	2.8%	0.4%
.500 or above in Conference	48.4%	57.1%	23.5%
Conference Champion	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.8%	0.4%	2.0%

First Four	3.0%	3.2%	2.5%
First Round	1.5%	1.8%	0.7%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Home) - 74.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 3	0 - 4	1 - 6
Quad 4	10 - 12	11 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf	Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	135	@ Illinois St.	W	67-65	13%	1 - 0		+6.0	-13.5	+19.3
Nov 11, 2024	155	@ North Alabama	L	69-87	14%	1 - 1		-14.9	-4.6	-10.2
Nov 16, 2024	190	@ Longwood	L	62-64	18%	1 - 2		-0.9	-9.7	+8.7
Nov 21, 2024	186	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	77-81	18%	1 - 3		-2.8	+5.2	-8.0
Nov 22, 2024	355	Le Moyne	L	53-65	69%	1 - 4		-25.5	-29.6	+4.5
Nov 27, 2024	6	@ Tennessee	L	35-78	1%	1 - 5		-20.9	-18.4	-8.5
Dec 03, 2024	285	@ Charleston Southern	L	68-83	34%	1 - 6		-19.3	-2.2	-17.8
Dec 11, 2024	308	@ Alabama St.	L	93-103 OT	41%	1 - 7		-16.0	+6.1	-20.9
Dec 19, 2024	282	@ Morehead St.	L	69-70 OT	34%	1 - 8	0 - 1	-5.2	-6.1	+0.9
Dec 21, 2024	324	@ Southern Indiana	W	77-46	46%	2 - 8	1 - 1	+23.5	+7.9	+18.4
Jan 02, 2025	227	Arkansas Little Rock	L	56-57	41%	2 - 9	1 - 2	-7.0	-9.1	+1.9
Jan 04, 2025	265	Southeast Missouri St.	W	66-63	49%	3 - 9	2 - 2	-5.3	-0.8	-4.0
Jan 09, 2025	354	@ Western Illinois	W	85-83 OT	59%	4 - 9	3 - 2	-8.8	+1.9	-10.9
Jan 11, 2025	349	@ Lindenwood	L	81-82	56%	4 - 10	3 - 3	-11.0	+6.6	-17.6
Jan 16, 2025	332	Eastern Illinois	W	68-63	68%	5 - 10	4 - 3	-8.2	-8.6	+0.5
Jan 18, 2025	266	SIU Edwardsville	W	85-82	50%	6 - 10	5 - 3	-5.4	+16.4	-21.7
Jan 21, 2025	289	@ Tennessee St.	L	80-81 OT	35%	6 - 11	5 - 4	-5.5	-5.7	+0.4
Jan 25, 2025	298	Tennessee Tech	L	85-89 OT	57%	6 - 12	5 - 5	-14.1	+2.3	-16.2
Jan 30, 2025	265	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	79-90	31%	6 - 13	5 - 6	-14.3	+5.9	-20.2
Feb 01, 2025	227	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	57-75	24%	6 - 14	5 - 7	-19.1	-9.5	-10.3
Feb 06, 2025	349	Lindenwood	W	75-69	74%
Feb 08, 2025	354	Western Illinois	W	72-65	77%
Feb 13, 2025	266	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	67-72	30%
Feb 15, 2025	332	@ Eastern Illinois	L	69-70	47%
Feb 18, 2025	289	Tennessee St.	W	76-75	56%
Feb 20, 2025	298	@ Tennessee Tech	L	72-75	36%
Feb 27, 2025	324	Southern Indiana	W	74-70	67%
Mar 01, 2025	282	Morehead St.	W	69-68	55%
Projected Record						10 - 18	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st													0.0	0.1								0.1	1st
2nd													0.4	0.5								0.9	2nd
3rd												0.4	2.0	0.3								2.7	3rd
4th											0.2	3.3	2.8	0.1								6.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	3.7	8.0	1.0									13.0	5th
6th									0.3	4.8	12.6	4.8	0.1									22.6	6th
7th								0.7	6.9	16.4	7.5	0.4										32.0	7th
8th							0.2	3.0	7.9	3.3	0.1											14.4	8th
9th						0.0	0.8	3.2	1.6	0.1												5.7	9th
10th						0.2	1.1	0.7	0.1													2.0	10th
11th						0.1	0.1	0.0														0.2	11th

Total						0.2	2.2	7.6	16.8	24.9	24.2	16.9	6.3	1.1									Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	6-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7	11.3%	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0
12-8	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.1%	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7	1.1%	15.1%	15.1%		15.5															0.1	0.1	0.9
12-8	6.3%	9.9%	9.9%		16.0															0.0	0.6	5.7
11-9	16.9%	5.6%	5.6%		16.0																0.9	15.9
10-10	24.2%	3.0%	3.0%		16.0																0.7	23.4
9-11	24.9%	2.5%	2.5%		16.0																0.6	24.3
8-12	16.8%	1.4%	1.4%		16.0																0.2	16.5
7-13	7.6%																					7.6
6-14	2.2%																					2.2
5-15	0.2%																					0.2
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	3.3%	3.3%	0.0%	16.0															0.1	3.2	96.7	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.4%
Lose Out	0.2%