Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.2 #314
Expected Predictive Rating -10.4 #329
Pace 72.5 #83
Improvement -0.4 #208

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #304 C- C F+ D+ C
Defense #304 D+ C- D- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #59 1.04 #305 +0.3 #163
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #143 0.84 #66 +1.5 #98
Three Pointers 35% #312 0.97 #238 -3.9 #312
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #243 -2.2 #242
Freethrows 0.30 #187 65% #362 0.19 #271
Second Chance 30.5% #183 1.02 #191 0.31 #180
Turnovers 20.4% #348
Total Offense -4.9 #304

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #9 1.20 #233 -5.8 #350
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #209 0.81 #269 -0.1 #196
Three Pointers 33% #350 1.11 #313 +2.3 #97
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #297 -3.7 #297
Freethrows 0.28 #106 75% #317 0.21 #147
Second Chance 31.9% #240 1.07 #258 0.34 #254
Turnovers 13.1% #344
Total Defense -4.4 #304

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #173 1.5% #303
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.5% #255 5.6% #290
Possession Length 17.5 #200 15.8 #11
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #195 0.20 #286
Improvement -2.3 #310 +1.9 #80

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 10.2% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.1% 2.3% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 66.9% 84.1% 54.1%
Conference Champion 1.8% 3.7% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.3%
First Four8.1% 9.4% 7.2%
First Round4.6% 5.7% 3.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NJIT (Away) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 411 - 1011 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 9 @Connecticut L 47 - 110 1% -42  0 - 1 -39 -16 F D+ F -19 F F D
 Mon, Nov 10 334 New Haven L 67 - 73 68% +1  0 - 2 -20 -9 F A+ C- -11 F+ F C
 Thu, Nov 13 183 @Columbia L 72 - 86 16% -1  0 - 3 -13 -0 B- D- F -12 D F+ B
 Sun, Nov 16 75 @Wake Forest L 75 - 109 4% -15  0 - 4 -23 +2 B- D- C+ -22 F+ F F
 Wed, Nov 19 121 @Bradley L 77 - 87 9% +0  0 - 5 -4 +9 B- D+ C -14 F+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 235 @St. Peter's L 66 - 68 22% -2  0 - 6 -3 -7 A- D+ F +3 A- F C-
 Wed, Nov 26 328 @Stonehill W 75 - 64 43% +5  1 - 6 +4 +6 C- C+ B- -2 B+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 173 @Massachusetts L 60 - 80 15% -8  1 - 7 -18 -16 D- D+ F -0 C- A D+
 Sat, Dec 13 186 @Quinnipiac L 71 - 75 17% +1  1 - 8 -3 -5 A- F F +2 B D- D-
 Tue, Dec 16 276 Sacred Heart W 87 - 82 51% -0  2 - 8 -4 +3 C D+ B- -8 F C C-
 Sun, Dec 21 290 @Boston University L 76 - 88 32% -9  2 - 9 -16 +3 C+ B- F -20 F F D+
 Mon, Dec 29 21 @Iowa L 62 - 90 1% -19  2 - 10 -8 +3 B C D -13 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 316 Albany W 83 - 71 63% +10  3 - 10 1 - 0 -1 +8 D+ A+ C+ -8 C+ F+ F+
 Thu, Jan 8 347 @Bryant W 77 - 63 48% +6  4 - 10 2 - 0 +5 +8 B- A- F+ -1 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 361 @Binghamton W 73 - 68 65% +6  5 - 10 3 - 0 -8 -5 D D F+ -3 D+ C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 324 NJIT L 64 - 73 65% -10  5 - 11 3 - 1 -22 -14 F D D- -9 C- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 211 Vermont L 68 - 77 38% -5  5 - 12 3 - 2 -15 -6 F+ B+ F -9 D A F
 Sat, Jan 24 261 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 56 - 79 26% -12  5 - 13 3 - 3 -26 -15 F F C -12 D+ D+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 320 @New Hampshire L 61 - 66 41% -3  5 - 14 3 - 4 -12 -13 F D+ C- +1 B- C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 346 Maine W 91 - 77 70% +11  6 - 14 4 - 4 -1 +14 A A+ F -15 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 324 @NJIT L 74 - 76 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 316 @Albany L 73 - 76 39%
 Thu, Feb 12 347 Bryant W 74 - 68 70%
 Thu, Feb 19 320 New Hampshire W 76 - 72 64%
 Sat, Feb 21 361 Binghamton W 78 - 68 82%
 Thu, Feb 26 211 @Vermont L 68 - 77 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 261 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 74 - 75 48%
 Tue, Mar 3 346 @Maine L 68 - 69 48%
Totals 10 - 18 8 - 8 -9 -5 C- C F+ -4 D+ C- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.0 0.5 1.8 1st
2nd 0.7 3.8 2.4 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 9.3 6.8 0.7 18.1 3rd
4th 1.6 13.2 11.9 1.8 0.0 28.5 4th
5th 0.5 8.3 10.5 1.2 20.6 5th
6th 0.1 3.8 8.0 1.4 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.9 4.8 1.5 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 1.3 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.3 2.7 10.5 19.5 26.5 23.0 12.7 4.1 0.6 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 92.2% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.1
11-5 23.9% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1
10-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.6% 18.1% 18.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.5
11-5 4.1% 15.7% 15.7% 16.0 0.6 3.5
10-6 12.7% 12.8% 12.8% 16.0 1.6 11.1
9-7 23.0% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 2.6 20.5
8-8 26.5% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 1.9 24.6
7-9 19.5% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 1.2 18.3
6-10 10.5% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.4 10.0
5-11 2.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-12 0.3% 0.3
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 16.0 91.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.6 42.9 57.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.3%