Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.9 #286
Expected Predictive Rating -7.9 #284
Pace 71.6 #110
Improvement +3.9 #25

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #231 C C F D C
Defense #319 D- F D- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #52 1.09 #258 +1.7 #119
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #135 0.80 #114 +1.3 #108
Three Pointers 34% #320 1.05 #137 -3.2 #289
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #185 -0.2 #186
Freethrows 17.1 #206 62% #359 10.7 #287
Second Chance 31.2% #169 1.03 #200 0.32 #169
Turnovers 20.0% #342
Total Offense -2.3 #231

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #33 1.21 #244 -4.7 #323
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #141 0.83 #296 -1.2 #271
Three Pointers 34% #344 1.14 #328 +1.6 #125
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #310 -4.4 #310
Freethrows 17.2 #177 72% #143 12.3 #185
Second Chance 34.7% #314 1.15 #298 0.40 #330
Turnovers 13.8% #325
Total Defense -4.6 #319

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #168 0.7% #229
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.7% #182 7.9% #318
Possession Length 17.9 #234 15.8 #20
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #230 0.21 #289
Improvement +1.6 #83 +2.3 #50

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 16.9% 13.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 28.3% 34.7% 14.3%
.500 or above in Conference 89.3% 93.8% 79.7%
Conference Champion 20.8% 24.8% 12.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.3% 1.8%
First Four12.3% 12.5% 11.8%
First Round9.6% 10.4% 8.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Binghamton (Away) - 68.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 413 - 813 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 5 @Connecticut L 47 - 110 1%  -42  0 - 1 -38 -16 F C- F -18 F F F
 Mon, Nov 10 338 New Haven L 67 - 73 77%  +1  0 - 2 -21 -9 F A+ D+ -12 F F C
 Thu, Nov 13 139 @Columbia L 72 - 86 15%  -1  0 - 3 -10 +2 B+ D+ F -11 D F A
 Sun, Nov 16 62 @Wake Forest L 75 - 109 5%  -15  0 - 4 -22 +3 B+ D C+ -22 F F F
 Wed, Nov 19 116 @Bradley L 77 - 87 11%  +0  0 - 5 -3 +11 C+ C+ B -15 F F C
 Sat, Nov 22 259 @St. Peter's L 66 - 68 34%  -2  0 - 6 -5 -6 A D F +2 B F C
 Wed, Nov 26 340 @Stonehill W 75 - 64 56%  +5  1 - 6 +2 +3 D C+ C+ -0 A- D+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 167 @Massachusetts L 60 - 80 19%  -8  1 - 7 -18 -15 D- C- F -1 C- A- D+
 Sat, Dec 13 158 @Quinnipiac L 71 - 75 18%  +1  1 - 8 -1 -3 A+ F F +3 B F F
 Tue, Dec 16 285 Sacred Heart W 87 - 82 61%  -0  2 - 8 -5 +3 C D A- -8 F B D
 Sun, Dec 21 258 @Boston University L 76 - 88 34%  -9  2 - 9 -15 +4 B- B- F -19 F F C
 Mon, Dec 29 20 @Iowa L 62 - 90 2%  -19  2 - 10 -9 +3 B+ D+ F -14 D- B F
 Sat, Jan 3 322 Albany W 83 - 71 72%  +10  3 - 10 1 - 0 -1 +6 D A+ C+ -6 C+ F F
 Thu, Jan 8 317 @Bryant W 77 - 63 48%  +6  4 - 10 2 - 0 +8 +10 A- B+ F -1 C C F
 Sat, Jan 10 359 @Binghamton W 77 - 72 69% 
 Thu, Jan 15 351 NJIT W 79 - 70 80% 
 Thu, Jan 22 198 Vermont L 73 - 75 45% 
 Sat, Jan 24 267 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 75 - 79 36% 
 Thu, Jan 29 344 @New Hampshire W 75 - 73 56% 
 Sat, Jan 31 339 @Maine W 69 - 67 57% 
 Thu, Feb 5 351 @NJIT W 76 - 73 61% 
 Sat, Feb 7 322 @Albany W 78 - 77 50% 
 Thu, Feb 12 317 Bryant W 74 - 69 70% 
 Thu, Feb 19 344 New Hampshire W 78 - 70 76% 
 Sat, Feb 21 359 Binghamton W 80 - 69 85% 
 Thu, Feb 26 198 @Vermont L 70 - 78 25% 
 Sat, Feb 28 267 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 78 - 76 59% 
 Tue, Mar 3 339 @Maine W 69 - 67 56% 
Totals 12 - 16 10 - 6 -7 -2 C C F -5 D- F D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.9 6.5 4.0 1.4 0.2 20.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 6.6 10.3 7.5 2.5 0.2 28.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 7.2 9.7 4.2 0.8 0.0 23.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.8 5.3 1.7 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 3.5 0.8 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 6.2 10.4 14.7 18.4 17.0 14.1 9.0 4.2 1.4 0.2 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.1
14-2 95.6% 4.0    3.4 0.7
13-3 72.1% 6.5    4.3 2.1 0.1
12-4 41.4% 5.9    2.4 2.9 0.6 0.0
11-5 14.2% 2.4    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 20.8% 20.8 12.0 6.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 41.0% 41.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.4% 33.1% 33.1% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.9
14-2 4.2% 32.8% 32.8% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.8
13-3 9.0% 25.3% 25.3% 15.9 0.1 2.2 6.7
12-4 14.1% 23.1% 23.1% 16.0 0.1 3.2 10.9
11-5 17.0% 17.2% 17.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9 14.1
10-6 18.4% 14.1% 14.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6 15.8
9-7 14.7% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 1.5 13.2
8-8 10.4% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.8 9.5
7-9 6.2% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.4 5.8
6-10 3.0% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.2 2.8
5-11 1.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-12 0.3% 0.3
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 15.9 84.1 0.0%