Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#144
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#134
Pace73.7#66
Improvement+1.7#87

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#104
First Shot+4.6#66
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#301
Layup/Dunks+4.1#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#268
Freethrows+2.4#56
Improvement+1.3#92

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#229
First Shot-1.6#224
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#223
Layups/Dunks-5.4#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#136
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#99
Freethrows+1.3#87
Improvement+0.5#147
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.1% 34.3% 27.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 98.7% 99.6% 97.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 98.1% 92.0%
Conference Champion 45.5% 56.5% 31.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round30.9% 34.2% 26.7%
Second Round2.0% 2.4% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Away) - 55.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 43 - 6
Quad 418 - 321 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 206   St. Peter's W 81-74 71%     1 - 0 +1.9 +7.5 -5.6
  Nov 15, 2024 4   @ Gonzaga L 54-113 3%     1 - 1 -36.1 -18.3 -8.8
  Nov 17, 2024 95   @ Washington L 69-74 23%     1 - 2 +3.4 +1.3 +2.1
  Nov 23, 2024 249   Quinnipiac W 80-70 79%     2 - 2 +2.2 +1.5 +0.4
  Nov 25, 2024 195   Merrimack W 81-74 70%     3 - 2 +2.3 +4.5 -2.5
  Nov 27, 2024 137   @ Saint Louis L 90-93 36%     3 - 3 +1.3 +19.7 -18.5
  Dec 01, 2024 219   @ Central Connecticut St. L 67-69 53%     3 - 4 -2.1 -4.0 +1.9
  Dec 07, 2024 203   @ Massachusetts W 96-83 48%     4 - 4 +14.1 +10.0 +2.1
  Dec 11, 2024 336   LIU Brooklyn W 69-62 91%     5 - 4 -7.0 -9.5 +2.4
  Dec 14, 2024 280   Dartmouth W 92-83 83%     6 - 4 -0.4 +14.5 -15.0
  Dec 18, 2024 323   Stonehill W 78-67 88%     7 - 4 -1.1 +1.5 -2.2
  Dec 21, 2024 257   Boston University W 83-71 80%     8 - 4 +3.8 +15.1 -10.1
  Jan 04, 2025 233   @ Albany W 82-81 56%    
  Jan 09, 2025 220   Vermont W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 11, 2025 352   NJIT W 80-64 94%    
  Jan 18, 2025 185   @ Bryant L 84-85 46%    
  Jan 23, 2025 217   Maine W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 355   New Hampshire W 85-68 94%    
  Jan 30, 2025 352   @ NJIT W 77-67 83%    
  Feb 01, 2025 245   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 87-85 58%    
  Feb 06, 2025 302   @ Binghamton W 77-72 69%    
  Feb 13, 2025 233   Albany W 85-78 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 355   @ New Hampshire W 82-71 83%    
  Feb 20, 2025 245   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 90-82 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 220   @ Vermont W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 27, 2025 185   Bryant W 87-82 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 302   Binghamton W 80-69 85%    
  Mar 04, 2025 217   @ Maine W 74-73 52%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.9 10.8 13.5 10.5 5.0 1.3 45.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.0 9.1 6.9 2.1 0.2 22.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 6.4 3.6 0.5 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.4 2.4 0.2 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.7 1.6 0.1 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.7 5.5 9.2 13.3 16.7 18.2 15.6 10.6 5.0 1.3 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
15-1 100.0% 5.0    4.9 0.0
14-2 98.5% 10.5    9.7 0.7
13-3 86.8% 13.5    10.3 3.1 0.2
12-4 59.4% 10.8    5.1 4.7 0.9 0.0
11-5 23.5% 3.9    0.8 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0
10-6 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 45.5% 45.5 32.2 10.3 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.3% 54.9% 54.9% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-1 5.0% 51.5% 51.5% 12.9 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.4
14-2 10.6% 46.7% 46.7% 13.4 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.1 0.2 5.7
13-3 15.6% 40.2% 40.2% 13.9 0.1 1.7 3.4 1.0 0.0 9.3
12-4 18.2% 33.8% 33.8% 14.3 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.2 0.1 12.1
11-5 16.7% 28.6% 28.6% 14.6 0.2 1.7 2.6 0.3 11.9
10-6 13.3% 22.0% 22.0% 15.0 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.5 10.4
9-7 9.2% 16.6% 16.6% 15.2 0.2 0.9 0.5 7.7
8-8 5.5% 14.4% 14.4% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 4.7
7-9 2.7% 9.9% 9.9% 15.8 0.1 0.2 2.4
6-10 1.3% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.2
5-11 0.4% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-12 0.1% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 31.1% 31.1% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 1.7 6.4 11.5 9.2 2.2 68.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 11.9 0.3 21.5 67.4 10.2 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%