IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

UMKC
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-11.6	#343
Expected Predictive Rating	-14.4	#344

Pace	71.8	#107
Improvement	+1.4	#109

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#354	F	D	F	D+	D+
Defense	#268	D	C-	C+	C+	D

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	39%	#173	1.06	#290	-1.8	#249
2 Pt. Jumpers	26%	#78	0.65	#296	+1.9	#87
Three Pointers	36%	#297	0.82	#347	-6.3	#343
1st FG Attempt			0.87	#346	-6.3	#339
Freethrows	16.4	#234	69%	#280	11.4	#254
Second Chance	28.2%	#250	0.93	#309	0.26	#290
Turnovers					19.5%	#329
Total Offense					-8.4	#354

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	44%	#45	1.32	#332	-6.6	#352
2 Pt. Jumpers	17%	#270	0.64	#45	+1.9	#57
Three Pointers	39%	#244	1.04	#226	+0.6	#161
1st FG Attempt			1.09	#299	-4.2	#304
Freethrows	15.9	#116	73%	#193	11.6	#240
Second Chance	34.4%	#306	1.00	#123	0.34	#233
Turnovers					17.4%	#134
Total Defense					-3.2	#268

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-1.4%	#274	1.6%	#307
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-13.1%	#349	5.9%	#289
Possession Length	18.0	#249	15.9	#22
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.20	#110	0.20	#264
Improvement	+0.4	#160	+1.0	#114

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.6%	0.7%	0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	16.0	16.0

.500 or above	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
.500 or above in Conference	7.2%	11.2%	2.5%
Conference Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	47.1%	34.9%	61.5%

First Four	0.6%	0.7%	0.4%
First Round	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 54.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 7	1 - 12
Quad 4	4 - 11	5 - 23

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Fri, Nov 7	130 @Southern Illinois	L	78 - 101	7%	-11	0 - 1		-18	+3	F	A	C+	-20	F	F	C-
Tue, Nov 11	214 Iona	L	91 - 105	29%	-9	0 - 2		-20	-1	C	B-	F	-17	F	C	A
Sat, Nov 15	45 @Texas	L	55 - 71	2%	-11	0 - 3		-2	-8	F	D+	A+	+4	A+	A+	F
Wed, Nov 19	44 @TCU	L	45 - 81	2%	-22	0 - 4		-21	-20	F	D-	F	-1	A	D-	B+
Mon, Nov 24	240 @Lindenwood	L	67 - 80	17%	-6	0 - 5		-14	-10	D-	F	F	-4	F	A+	C
Sat, Nov 29	212 @Weber St.	L	61 - 82	14%	-10	0 - 6		-21	-12	D+	F	F	-9	F	A-	A+
Wed, Dec 3	187 Idaho St.	L	59 - 68	26%	-0	0 - 7		-14	-10	D	D-	F	-6	B+	F	B+
Sat, Dec 6	255 @Eastern Washington	L	66 - 90	19%	-15	0 - 8		-26	-16	F	C	F	-8	B	F	C
Wed, Dec 10	212 Weber St.	L	60 - 64	29%	-3	0 - 9		-10	-21	F	D-	F	+11	A+	C	A+
Tue, Dec 16	48 @Oklahoma	L	67 - 89	2%	-19	0 - 10		-8	-2	C-	C-	F	-6	B-	D-	C-
Thu, Dec 18	54 @Oklahoma St.	L	79 - 91	2%	-6	0 - 11		+1	+4	B-	D	C+	-2	F	B-	A+
Wed, Dec 31	264 @Denver	L	74 - 87	21%	-12	0 - 12	0 - 1	-16	-6	F	C+	D+	-10	D+	B-	F
Sat, Jan 3	257 @Nebraska Omaha	W	73 - 66	20%	+2	1 - 12	1 - 1	+4	-1	D-	F	A-	+5	C-	D+	A+
Thu, Jan 8	146 North Dakota St.	L	73 - 97	18%	-18	1 - 13	1 - 2	-26	+0	A	F	F	-27	F	A	F
Sat, Jan 10	319 North Dakota	W	74 - 73	54%
Thu, Jan 15	290 @South Dakota	L	76 - 83	25%
Sat, Jan 17	173 @South Dakota St.	L	68 - 82	10%
Sat, Jan 24	257 Nebraska Omaha	L	73 - 76	39%
Wed, Jan 28	264 Denver	L	78 - 81	40%
Sun, Feb 1	135 @St. Thomas	L	67 - 83	7%
Wed, Feb 4	290 South Dakota	L	79 - 80	44%
Thu, Feb 12	298 @Oral Roberts	L	68 - 75	26%
Sat, Feb 14	135 St. Thomas	L	70 - 80	18%
Thu, Feb 19	319 @North Dakota	L	71 - 76	32%
Sat, Feb 21	146 @North Dakota St.	L	64 - 80	8%
Thu, Feb 26	173 South Dakota St.	L	71 - 79	25%
Sat, Feb 28	298 Oral Roberts	L	71 - 72	47%
Totals						5 - 22	5 - 11	-12	-8	F	D	F	-3	D	C-	C+

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Summit League Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0	Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1	1st
2nd									0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.4	2nd
3rd								0.1	0.5	0.8	0.4	0.0						1.7	3rd
4th							0.1	1.5	2.3	0.8	0.1							4.8	4th
5th						0.1	2.0	4.8	1.6	0.1								8.5	5th
6th					0.0	2.1	7.3	2.9	0.2									12.6	6th
7th				0.1	2.4	9.3	5.1	0.4	0.0									17.4	7th
8th			0.2	3.4	11.3	7.8	0.9	0.0										23.5	8th
9th		2.2	7.8	11.9	7.7	1.4	0.0											31.0	9th

Total		2.2	8.1	15.4	21.4	20.6	15.5	9.6	4.6	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0					Total

Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3	50.0%	0.0	0.0
12-4	50.0%	0.0		0.0
11-5	23.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0
10-6	0.8%	0.0			0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	0.1%	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3	0.0%																			0.0		0.0
12-4	0.0%																				0.0	0.0
11-5	0.2%	13.3%	13.3%		16.0																0.0	0.1
10-6	0.6%	5.4%	5.4%		16.0																0.0	0.6
9-7	1.8%	1.9%	1.9%		16.0																0.0	1.8
8-8	4.6%	1.3%	1.3%		16.0																0.1	4.5
7-9	9.6%	1.5%	1.5%		16.0																0.1	9.5
6-10	15.5%	0.8%	0.8%		16.0																0.1	15.4
5-11	20.6%	0.5%	0.5%		16.0																0.1	20.5
4-12	21.4%	0.2%	0.2%		16.0																0.0	21.3
3-13	15.4%	0.1%	0.1%		16.0																0.0	15.4
2-14	8.1%	0.1%	0.1%		16.0																0.0	8.1
1-15	2.2%	0.2%	0.2%		16.0																0.0	2.2
0-16

Total	100%	0.6%	0.6%	0.0%	16.0																	99.4	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.6%