UMKC
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#235
Expected Predictive Rating-8.0#298
Pace63.6#305
Improvement+1.3#124

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#284
First Shot-6.1#333
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#57
Layup/Dunks-10.3#364
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#54
Freethrows+0.9#119
Improvement+0.0#184

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#177
First Shot+0.7#154
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#274
Layups/Dunks-1.4#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#102
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#117
Freethrows-0.4#215
Improvement+1.2#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.7% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.5% 7.9% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.8% 5.6% 21.0%
First Four2.9% 3.2% 2.7%
First Round2.1% 2.6% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 40.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 47 - 810 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 8   @ Iowa St. L 56-82 2%     0 - 1 -5.5 -2.3 -4.8
  Nov 16, 2024 28   @ Creighton L 56-79 4%     0 - 2 -6.2 -8.1 +2.0
  Nov 22, 2024 233   American L 60-64 50%     0 - 3 -8.2 -13.3 +4.9
  Nov 23, 2024 280   Albany L 65-67 59%     0 - 4 -8.6 -5.1 -3.7
  Nov 30, 2024 265   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 59-80 46%     0 - 5 -24.3 -19.9 -2.4
  Dec 04, 2024 249   Idaho L 77-82 63%     0 - 6 -12.7 -1.4 -11.4
  Dec 07, 2024 189   @ Montana St. L 62-74 30%     0 - 7 -10.9 -2.7 -9.6
  Dec 10, 2024 299   @ Portland W 69-64 54%     1 - 7 -0.2 -4.3 +4.4
  Dec 14, 2024 312   Bowling Green W 85-77 74%     2 - 7 -3.1 +10.4 -13.1
  Dec 17, 2024 134   @ Wichita St. W 74-64 21%     3 - 7 +14.0 +7.6 +7.0
  Dec 21, 2024 153   East Tennessee St. W 73-66 40%     4 - 7 +5.2 +11.7 -5.3
  Jan 02, 2025 262   South Dakota W 68-54 65%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +5.8 -8.1 +15.2
  Jan 04, 2025 315   Oral Roberts W 90-67 75%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +11.5 +13.1 -0.2
  Jan 08, 2025 212   @ Nebraska Omaha L 58-77 35%     6 - 8 2 - 1 -19.2 -13.5 -6.8
  Jan 16, 2025 139   @ North Dakota St. L 64-71 22%     6 - 9 2 - 2 -3.2 -8.7 +5.2
  Jan 18, 2025 269   @ North Dakota L 72-76 47%     6 - 10 2 - 3 -7.6 +0.6 -8.7
  Jan 23, 2025 114   South Dakota St. L 64-65 32%     6 - 11 2 - 4 -0.5 -5.2 +4.7
  Jan 25, 2025 119   St. Thomas L 65-68 34%     6 - 12 2 - 5 -3.1 -4.7 +1.3
  Jan 30, 2025 331   @ Denver L 68-69 65%     6 - 13 2 - 6 -9.1 -4.2 -5.0
  Feb 01, 2025 315   @ Oral Roberts L 67-73 59%     6 - 14 2 - 7 -12.5 -5.8 -7.3
  Feb 06, 2025 139   North Dakota St. L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 269   North Dakota W 75-71 67%    
  Feb 13, 2025 262   @ South Dakota L 78-79 44%    
  Feb 19, 2025 212   Nebraska Omaha W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 23, 2025 114   @ South Dakota St. L 64-74 18%    
  Feb 27, 2025 331   Denver W 72-63 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 119   @ St. Thomas L 67-76 19%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.1 4th
5th 0.4 5.1 7.7 2.2 0.1 15.4 5th
6th 0.5 10.7 15.4 4.4 0.3 31.3 6th
7th 0.6 10.4 17.1 4.9 0.2 33.2 7th
8th 0.1 3.8 8.2 2.1 0.1 14.2 8th
9th 0.8 2.8 1.1 0.1 4.7 9th
Total 0.9 7.2 20.2 30.4 25.4 12.5 3.2 0.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.3% 7.7% 7.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2
8-8 3.2% 7.4% 7.4% 15.8 0.1 0.2 3.0
7-9 12.5% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.6 11.9
6-10 25.4% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 1.0 24.4
5-11 30.4% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.9 29.5
4-12 20.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 19.9
3-13 7.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.1
2-14 0.9% 0.9
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 3.1 96.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%