Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#210
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#247
Pace64.3#296
Improvement+0.8#133

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#162
First Shot-1.3#214
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#92
Layup/Dunks+0.5#162
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#184
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#205
Freethrows-0.6#223
Improvement+1.5#77

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#264
First Shot+0.2#163
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#350
Layups/Dunks-2.4#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#3
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#123
Freethrows-2.3#327
Improvement-0.7#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 19.1% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.3 15.1
.500 or above 37.3% 65.2% 36.5%
.500 or above in Conference 72.2% 82.6% 71.8%
Conference Champion 15.9% 25.1% 15.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 1.3% 3.7%
First Four2.9% 1.5% 2.9%
First Round11.5% 18.7% 11.3%
Second Round0.4% 1.2% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 3.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 411 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 69   @ Oregon St. L 48-76 11%     0 - 1 -17.1 -14.5 -5.2
  Nov 13, 2024 60   @ Nevada L 58-88 9%     0 - 2 -17.7 -4.0 -16.4
  Nov 17, 2024 166   @ Hawaii L 68-73 OT 31%     0 - 3 -2.4 -3.2 +0.8
  Nov 22, 2024 77   UC Irvine L 87-93 25%     0 - 4 -1.5 +13.1 -14.2
  Nov 29, 2024 289   Bowling Green W 73-70 67%     1 - 4 -3.9 -3.5 -0.5
  Nov 30, 2024 204   Pepperdine W 68-53 48%     2 - 4 +13.1 -4.5 +17.7
  Dec 04, 2024 114   North Dakota St. L 73-77 41%     2 - 5 -4.1 +6.1 -10.8
  Dec 07, 2024 275   @ North Dakota L 75-80 53%     2 - 6 -8.3 +2.2 -10.7
  Dec 13, 2024 287   @ Utah Tech W 73-71 55%     3 - 6 -1.7 +8.3 -9.7
  Dec 21, 2024 145   Utah Valley L 62-64 50%     3 - 7 -4.5 +2.2 -7.1
  Dec 29, 2024 23   @ Oregon L 62-82 3%    
  Jan 02, 2025 180   @ Northern Colorado L 74-78 34%    
  Jan 04, 2025 265   @ Northern Arizona W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 250   @ Idaho St. L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 16, 2025 191   Montana W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 155   Montana St. W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 23, 2025 251   @ Portland St. L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. W 68-63 69%    
  Jan 30, 2025 259   Idaho W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 254   Eastern Washington W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 03, 2025 265   Northern Arizona W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 250   Idaho St. W 69-64 68%    
  Feb 13, 2025 155   @ Montana St. L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 191   @ Montana L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 20, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 71-60 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 251   Portland St. W 76-71 69%    
  Feb 27, 2025 254   @ Eastern Washington L 74-75 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 259   @ Idaho L 71-72 49%    
  Mar 03, 2025 180   Northern Colorado W 77-75 55%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.3 4.4 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 15.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.0 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.5 6.5 3.4 0.6 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 6.6 3.3 0.4 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.8 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.6 3.3 0.4 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.4 0.6 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.7 5.0 7.5 10.5 12.7 14.1 13.8 11.9 9.0 5.8 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 99.1% 1.3    1.3 0.1
15-3 93.5% 3.0    2.6 0.4 0.0
14-4 76.2% 4.4    3.0 1.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 47.9% 4.3    1.9 1.9 0.5 0.0
12-6 17.6% 2.1    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.9% 15.9 9.6 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 41.7% 41.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 39.8% 39.8% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.4% 35.3% 35.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.9
15-3 3.2% 31.5% 31.5% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.2
14-4 5.8% 28.0% 28.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 4.2
13-5 9.0% 23.4% 23.4% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.2 6.9
12-6 11.9% 18.0% 18.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.5 9.7
11-7 13.8% 13.2% 13.2% 15.5 0.0 0.9 0.9 11.9
10-8 14.1% 10.8% 10.8% 15.9 0.1 1.4 12.5
9-9 12.7% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9 11.8
8-10 10.5% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.5 10.0
7-11 7.5% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 7.3
6-12 5.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 4.9
5-13 2.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 2.6
4-14 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.8 4.9 87.3 0.0%