Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.8 211
Results Rating -3.2 221
Pace 70.3 130
Improvement -0.5 205

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 140 C C C+ B- B
Defense D+ 290 D+ C C- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 14 C- 56% 229 +3.6 61
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 203 D 33% 329 -2.6 302
Three Pointers 37% 261 B- 36% 97 -0.8 211
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 46 C- -0.7 197
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 159
Second Chance C+ 31.7% 147 D+ 0.97 264 C 0.31 183
Turnovers C+ 16.3% 147
Freethrows B- 0.34 78 C 72% 208 B- 0.24 107
Total Offense C+ +1.0 140

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 241 D 13.5% 315
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 14% 332 D 7.8% 327
Three Pointers C+ 85% 168 B- 0.6% 115
Total C- 53% 230 F+ 7.8% 345

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 79 D- 66% 345 +5.7 346
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 283 C 38% 172 -1.4 82
Three Pointers 40% 213 C+ 33% 111 -1.3 127
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 302 D+ +2.2 267
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 281
Second Chance C+ 28.9% 117 D+ 1.11 294 C 0.32 210
Turnovers C- 16.1% 224
Freethrows C- 0.33 249 C- 73% 242 D+ 0.24 262
Total Defense D+ -3.8 290

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 131 F 3.4% 365
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 157 D+ 3.0% 297
Three Pointers C 83% 151 C- 0.6% 216
Total C+ 53% 130 F 2.2% 362

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 182 16.9 112
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 86 0.18 219
Improvement +1.4 #115 -1.9 #283

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 235 209 181
Results Rating Rank 252 218 179
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 6 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 10% 7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.7
.500 or above 26% 44% 10%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 0% 3%
First Round8% 10% 6%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 47.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 84 - 13
Quad 410 - 314 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 99 @Utah L 89 - 92 OT 16% +3  66% 0 - 1 B- +5 C +0 D- A D B+ +5 A+ F C-
 Wed, Nov 12 28 @Utah St. L 73 - 83 4% -4  27% 0 - 2 B- +8 B- +4 F+ A+ B+ B +4 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 120 @UC Irvine L 70 - 79 21% -8  5% 0 - 3 C- -3 D -5 D- D C+ B- +2 C B- C-
 Wed, Nov 19 197 Campbell W 91 - 85 59% +5  60% 1 - 3 C +1 B +7 A- C+ B- D- -6 B+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 180 Texas Arlington L 73 - 74 56% -0  43% 1 - 4 D+ -5 C+ +3 C+ B+ C F+ -8 F+ B- D
 Sat, Nov 29 360 UMKC W 82 - 61 93% +10  93% 2 - 4 C +1 C+ +2 A+ F F C -0 D- A C
 Wed, Dec 3 335 Oral Roberts W 92 - 66 86% +17  94% 3 - 4 B+ +12 B +6 A D B+ B +4 C- A+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 128 @St. Thomas L 65 - 88 22% -18  0% 3 - 5 F+ -18 F+ -10 D- C- F D- -8 D F C-
 Wed, Dec 10 360 @UMKC W 64 - 60 84% +3  83% 4 - 5 D -10 F -18 F D+ F A- +8 A D+ B
 Wed, Dec 17 95 @Utah Valley L 74 - 90 14% -9  1% 4 - 6 D+ -7 A- +10 D+ A- A+ F -18 F F C-
 Sat, Dec 20 189 Utah Tech L 80 - 82 57% -1  27% 4 - 7 D+ -7 B +6 A+ F C- F -12 F A+ D
 Thu, Jan 1 150 Portland St. L 90 - 95 OT 50% -0  45% 4 - 8 0 - 1 D+ -8 C+ +2 C D+ A+ F+ -9 C- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 276 Sacramento St. W 95 - 82 74% +10  97% 5 - 8 1 - 1 C+ +4 B- +4 C+ C+ C+ C- -2 F+ B A-
 Thu, Jan 8 304 @Northern Arizona W 78 - 65 60% +5  81% 6 - 8 2 - 1 B- +8 B +6 C- B- A+ B- +3 B+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 168 @Northern Colorado W 76 - 71 30% +1  51% 7 - 8 3 - 1 B- +8 B- +5 B- D+ D+ B- +3 A F+ C-
 Thu, Jan 15 186 Eastern Washington W 91 - 80 57% +1  42% 8 - 8 4 - 1 B- +6 B- +5 C+ B D+ C+ +1 B- F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 187 Idaho L 67 - 75 57% -9  0% 8 - 9 4 - 2 D- -13 F -16 F B+ F B +4 B F+ A
 Thu, Jan 22 194 @Montana L 65 - 81 36% -2  46% 8 - 10 4 - 3 F+ -15 D+ -4 B+ F D+ F -13 F F B+
 Sat, Jan 24 164 @Montana St. L 88 - 91 30% -2  19% 8 - 11 4 - 4 C -0 A +14 A+ D A F -14 F F+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 252 Idaho St. W 81 - 79 69% -4  11% 9 - 11 5 - 4 D+ -6 C+ +2 C- B D+ D- -8 F A+ D+
 Mon, Feb 2 276 @Sacramento St. L 90 - 104 53% -12  4% 9 - 12 5 - 5 F+ -17 C+ +2 D+ B- B F -18 F A- B
 Thu, Feb 5 168 Northern Colorado L 74 - 88 53% -10  4% 9 - 13 5 - 6 F+ -17 C- -2 D+ F A- F -16 F F F+
 Sat, Feb 7 304 Northern Arizona W 72 - 53 79% +7  68% 10 - 13 6 - 6 B- +8 C+ +2 C B- C+ A +9 B A C-
 Thu, Feb 12 187 @Idaho W 83 - 72 34% +15  99% 11 - 13 7 - 6 B+ +12 A+ +16 B B A+ C- -2 C- A+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 186 @Eastern Washington L 66 - 84 34% -20  0% 11 - 14 7 - 7 F+ -17 F+ -10 F F B- D- -7 F A C+
 Thu, Feb 19 164 Montana St. W 82 - 79 OT 52% -0  43% 12 - 14 8 - 7 C -0 C+ +2 C+ C A- C- -2 D- A C+
 Sat, Feb 21 194 Montana W 92 - 72 59% +14  93% 13 - 14 9 - 7 A- +15 A+ +18 A+ A+ C- C- -3 C+ B F
 Sat, Feb 28 252 @Idaho St. L 77 - 78 47%
 Mon, Mar 2 150 @Portland St. L 70 - 76 28%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 -3 C+ +1 B+ C- B D+ -4 B- C B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C- D B- C- 46% 36% 37% B C C+ D+ C C+ B- C B- D+ D- C C+ D+ 43% 17% 40% D D+ C+ D+ C C- C- C- D+
1.10 56% 33% 36% -1 +1 1.03 32% 1.0 .31 16% .34 72% .24 1.14 66% 38% 33% +2 +1 1.08 29% 1.1 .32 16% .33 73% .25
Nov
8		 Utah C D+ F F F 60% 12% 28% A D- A- A- A D A+ F A B+ A- A+ A+ A+ 52% 8% 40% F A+ D F F C- F A F
1.04 54% 14% 25% -9 +3 0.90 36% 1.2 .43 18% .40 61% .24 1.08 50% 20% 24% -12 +3 0.84 35% 1.2 .43 15% .44 66% .29
Nov
12		 Utah St. B- F C+ F F 37% 16% 47% B F+ B- A+ A+ B+ A+ B- A+ B F B- A+ A+ 42% 16% 42% B A+ A- F D+ F F D F
1.03 39% 38% 26% -13 0 0.78 33% 1.6 .54 18% .48 75% .36 1.17 74% 33% 13% -7 +1 0.89 31% 1.5 .46 8% .45 76% .34
Nov
15		 UC Irvine D B- F F F 48% 23% 29% B D- C F+ D C+ A+ C- A+ B- D- A- A C 48% 28% 24% D+ C C B B- C- F C F
0.90 56% 15% 19% -13 0 0.77 33% 0.8 .24 17% .37 71% .26 1.02 64% 31% 27% -2 0 0.98 31% 0.9 .28 17% .59 68% .40
Nov
19		 Campbell B A+ D B A 37% 23% 40% D+ A- B+ F+ C+ B- A- F B- D- B+ F A+ A 62% 10% 28% F B+ D- F F C F F F
1.23 84% 33% 38% +11 0 1.23 38% 1.0 .38 16% .37 65% .24 1.15 48% 80% 14% -10 +3 0.88 38% 1.4 .53 18% .51 90% .46
Nov
22		 Texas Arlington C+ B+ F+ D+ C+ 40% 26% 34% C+ C+ D A+ B+ C D- A+ C+ F+ F+ A+ C+ D- 58% 12% 31% F F+ A F B- D A+ F A
1.10 65% 31% 29% -1 -1 0.98 24% 1.7 .41 17% .31 88% .27 1.11 63% 17% 31% -1 +3 1.06 27% 1.1 .30 18% .22 83% .18
Nov
29		 UMKC C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 9% 43% B+ A+ C+ F F F A+ C A C F B+ A- D- 36% 26% 38% C D- A A- A C C A+ B+
1.20 68% 50% 45% +13 +2 1.33 39% 0.6 .25 22% .37 70% .26 0.89 72% 31% 26% -1 -1 0.98 19% 0.7 .14 19% .25 50% .13
Dec
3		 Oral Roberts B A+ F C+ A 65% 11% 25% A- A D+ D- D B+ D A C- B A+ B F C- 36% 11% 53% D+ C- A+ A+ A+ B- D+ B+ C-
1.25 73% 17% 36% +8 +3 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 12% .28 78% .22 0.89 37% 33% 39% -4 +1 0.96 16% 0.5 .08 20% .32 68% .22
Dec
7		 St. Thomas F+ F+ F C F+ 51% 17% 32% B- D- C+ F+ C- F A+ F B- D- F F B D+ 47% 6% 47% D- D B- F F C- C+ F C-
0.92 50% 25% 33% -7 +1 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 24% .38 60% .23 1.25 76% 67% 32% +9 +3 1.25 19% 2.2 .41 14% .28 76% .22
Dec
10		 UMKC F F+ D F F 50% 17% 33% C+ F D- C+ D+ F B+ F D A- B D- A+ A+ 38% 13% 48% F A D+ C- D+ B F C F
0.86 50% 33% 24% -10 +1 0.85 31% 1.1 .33 24% .32 50% .16 0.81 50% 43% 16% -15 +1 0.73 30% 0.9 .28 22% .36 67% .24
Dec
17		 Utah Valley A- C- F C D- 60% 16% 24% A D+ A+ C A- A+ B F+ C+ F F+ F F F 47% 9% 45% D+ F F F F C- D+ F D-
1.13 53% 13% 33% -7 +2 0.92 42% 1.0 .42 14% .37 67% .25 1.37 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 50% 1.4 .69 20% .32 76% .25
Dec
20		 Utah Tech B C+ F A+ A+ 51% 5% 44% A A+ F F F C- A+ C+ A+ F F F D+ F 28% 28% 44% A+ F C A+ A+ D F A- F
1.20 64% 0% 53% +13 +3 1.35 23% 0.3 .08 17% .54 73% .40 1.23 86% 57% 36% +15 -2 1.28 29% 0.4 .13 14% .40 65% .26
Jan
1		 Portland St. C+ C+ F D- C- 42% 14% 44% B C C- D+ D+ A+ A+ F+ A+ F+ B A+ F C- 45% 16% 39% D+ C- D+ D+ D+ F F B D-
1.07 58% 25% 28% -6 +1 0.93 27% 0.9 .25 12% .56 69% .39 1.13 52% 10% 44% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.0 .33 14% .40 66% .26
Jan
3		 Sacramento St. B- F D A+ C+ 49% 16% 35% C C+ C B- C+ C+ A+ B A+ C- F A+ D- F 21% 37% 42% A+ F+ D+ A+ B A- D A+ B-
1.23 48% 38% 50% +3 +1 1.12 34% 1.2 .41 16% .52 76% .40 1.06 100% 24% 38% +6 -3 1.07 30% 0.8 .25 19% .39 63% .24
Jan
8		 Northern Arizona B F+ F A D+ 44% 7% 48% B C- C B+ B- A+ F F F B- C- D+ A+ A 43% 11% 47% F B+ C F F+ F+ D B- D+
1.24 50% 25% 42% +1 +2 1.09 33% 1.2 .41 8% .12 43% .05 1.04 60% 40% 23% -7 +2 0.91 24% 1.4 .32 13% .31 65% .20
Jan
10		 Northern Colorado B- D+ A D+ C- 73% 4% 22% A+ B- B F D+ D+ A+ F+ A+ B- D A- A+ A+ 55% 21% 23% D A F A- F+ C- F F+ F
1.14 55% 50% 30% -3 +5 1.04 31% 0.8 .25 14% .57 70% .40 1.07 65% 30% 9% -6 +1 0.91 41% 0.9 .38 17% .36 80% .29
Jan
15		 Eastern Washington B- F A+ A+ C 56% 10% 34% A- C+ B C+ B D+ A+ B A+ C+ C+ C- B- B- 45% 31% 24% B- B- B F F B- F F F
1.21 46% 60% 47% +2 +3 1.12 37% 1.2 .43 17% .48 80% .39 1.07 55% 40% 33% -1 -1 0.98 27% 1.7 .45 20% .45 81% .37
Jan
17		 Idaho F F F F F 44% 16% 40% A F A- C B+ F A+ D+ A+ B C F A+ A- 44% 13% 44% D- B A+ F F+ A F A F
0.88 35% 14% 22% -21 +1 0.62 33% 1.1 .36 22% .66 72% .47 0.98 57% 50% 24% -6 +1 0.94 19% 1.9 .36 21% .43 65% .28
Jan
22		 Montana D+ A F D+ B 51% 15% 34% A B+ D F F D+ A F C+ F F A+ F F 45% 13% 43% D- F D+ F F B+ A D A
1.01 71% 29% 31% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.4 .10 17% .37 60% .22 1.25 81% 17% 50% +18 +1 1.40 25% 1.6 .40 23% .20 80% .16
Jan
24		 Montana St. A F+ A A+ A 61% 4% 35% A+ A+ D D+ D A B B- B F F+ F F F 35% 18% 47% F+ F F C+ F+ B- F F F
1.25 48% 50% 58% +7 +4 1.24 25% 1.0 .25 11% .30 79% .24 1.29 67% 56% 46% +14 0 1.31 38% 1.0 .38 17% .36 90% .32
Jan
31		 Idaho St. C+ F D- A+ C- 40% 22% 38% C- C- B+ C B D+ B- B- B D- D F F F 47% 12% 41% D- F A+ A+ A+ D+ B D- C+
1.20 45% 36% 47% +2 0 1.06 36% 1.1 .39 16% .36 80% .28 1.17 63% 67% 43% +11 +2 1.27 19% 0.4 .08 16% .27 80% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Sacramento St. C+ C+ C F D 47% 12% 42% C+ D+ D A+ B- B C- B C F F B+ F F 42% 21% 38% F+ F B- A+ A- B F C F
1.15 61% 43% 28% -2 +2 1.02 30% 1.4 .43 14% .31 76% .24 1.33 75% 30% 67% +24 0 1.50 25% 0.8 .21 18% .56 78% .44
Feb
5		 Northern Colorado C- D+ A+ F D 54% 15% 31% B D+ B- F F A- B+ A A F F F F F 44% 15% 41% D F B F F F+ A- B A-
1.10 54% 75% 13% -7 +2 0.92 30% 0.5 .15 9% .39 83% .32 1.30 71% 50% 41% +12 +1 1.28 24% 2.0 .48 13% .17 70% .12
Feb
7		 Northern Arizona C+ D A+ B- D+ 56% 7% 37% A C B+ C- B- C+ A+ D A+ A C A C+ B 27% 25% 48% B+ B C+ A+ A C- F+ A D+
1.23 54% 67% 38% +2 +3 1.12 39% 1.1 .42 15% .52 69% .36 0.90 58% 27% 33% -3 -1 0.93 23% 0.5 .11 15% .34 59% .20
Feb
12		 Idaho A+ B F A+ B+ 44% 34% 22% C- B B- B+ B A+ C A+ A- C- D- A+ C+ C 42% 6% 52% F C- A- A+ A+ F C D C-
1.29 64% 29% 55% +6 -1 1.12 28% 1.2 .34 9% .34 90% .31 1.12 64% 0% 33% 0 +2 1.06 22% 0.6 .14 8% .29 76% .22
Feb
14		 Eastern Washington F+ D- A- F F 48% 21% 31% C- F F F F B- A+ B+ A+ D- F B F+ F 62% 6% 32% F F A+ D- A C+ F F+ F
0.96 52% 50% 20% -7 +1 0.90 24% 0.3 .06 15% .44 81% .36 1.22 72% 33% 40% +11 +4 1.32 17% 1.3 .22 19% .38 81% .31
Feb
19		 Montana St. C+ B- C+ D- B- 46% 30% 25% D C+ B+ F+ C A- B- D+ C+ C- F C- A D- 34% 26% 40% C D- A+ A A C+ D+ D D
1.13 62% 41% 29% +1 -1 1.02 37% 0.9 .33 12% .30 74% .22 1.09 83% 43% 29% +7 -1 1.13 19% 0.8 .16 16% .30 78% .23
Feb
21		 Montana A+ A- B+ A+ A+ 48% 19% 33% B A+ A- A A+ C- A A+ A+ C- D B C+ C+ 40% 18% 42% C C+ C+ A B F C D- C-
1.36 70% 44% 50% +15 +1 1.33 38% 1.2 .46 16% .37 81% .30 1.07 65% 33% 33% +2 0 1.06 22% 0.9 .19 15% .30 82% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 1.7 6.5 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 12.7 6.1 18.9 3rd
4th 5.3 26.7 1.5 33.5 4th
5th 21.1 6.2 27.2 5th
6th 11.6 11.6 6th
7th 0.6 0.6 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 38.7 47.3 14.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 14.0% 11.9% 11.9% 14.6 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.0 12.4
10-8 47.3% 8.9% 8.9% 15.2 0.1 3.2 0.9 43.1
9-9 38.7% 6.7% 6.7% 15.9 0.2 2.4 36.1
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 15.3 91.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 14.6 2.0 33.6 63.2 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.6%
Lose Out 22.6%