Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 #221
Expected Predictive Rating -4.1 #231
Pace 71.8 #96
Improvement -1.9 #270

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #164 C C C B- B+
Defense #276 C- D+ C C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #13 1.10 #249 +3.6 #68
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #305 0.54 #362 -3.8 #346
Three Pointers 39% #230 1.11 #60 +0.5 #157
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #168 +0.2 #170
Freethrows 0.34 #56 70% #267 0.24 #103
Second Chance 31.5% #156 1.00 #222 0.31 #171
Turnovers 16.7% #177
Total Offense -0.1 #164

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #90 1.28 #321 -4.7 #329
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #267 0.77 #215 +1.0 #113
Three Pointers 40% #216 0.93 #67 +2.3 #98
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #230 -1.4 #227
Freethrows 0.32 #248 73% #216 0.23 #249
Second Chance 30.2% #161 1.17 #338 0.35 #284
Turnovers 16.2% #209
Total Defense -3.2 #276

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.7% #28 1.2% #283
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.2% #212 1.7% #216
Possession Length 16.9 #135 17.0 #135
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #81 0.17 #190
Improvement +0.0 #183 -1.9 #283

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 8.2% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 28.2% 40.6% 16.1%
.500 or above in Conference 68.3% 82.5% 54.2%
Conference Champion 2.0% 3.4% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.1% 1.4%
First Four1.5% 1.2% 1.9%
First Round6.5% 7.7% 5.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Away) - 49.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 83 - 13
Quad 411 - 314 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 104 @Utah L 89 - 92 OT 16% +3  0 - 1 +4 +1 D- A- D+ +3 A+ F C
 Wed, Nov 12 38 @Utah St. L 73 - 83 4% -4  0 - 2 +7 +7 F+ A+ B+ +0 A+ C F
 Sat, Nov 15 118 @UC Irvine L 70 - 79 19% -8  0 - 3 -3 -2 D- C- C -0 C- B C-
 Wed, Nov 19 212 Campbell W 91 - 85 60% +5  1 - 3 -0 +8 B+ C C+ -9 B+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 163 Texas Arlington L 73 - 74 50% -0  1 - 4 -4 +6 C+ A- C+ -10 F+ B- D
 Sat, Nov 29 358 UMKC W 82 - 61 90% +10  2 - 4 +3 +5 A+ F+ F -1 D A C
 Wed, Dec 3 335 Oral Roberts W 92 - 66 84% +17  3 - 4 +12 +8 A D B +3 C- A+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 133 @St. Thomas L 65 - 88 22% -18  3 - 5 -18 -7 D D+ F -12 D- F C-
 Wed, Dec 10 358 @UMKC W 64 - 60 78% +3  4 - 5 -8 -16 F D+ F +8 A D+ B
 Wed, Dec 17 100 @Utah Valley L 74 - 90 15% -9  4 - 6 -8 +11 C- B+ A+ -21 F F C
 Sat, Dec 20 210 Utah Tech L 80 - 82 60% -1  4 - 7 -8 +9 A+ F C -17 F A D-
 Thu, Jan 1 149 Portland St. L 90 - 95 OT 46% -0  4 - 8 0 - 1 -7 +5 C C- A+ -12 C D F
 Sat, Jan 3 274 Sacramento St. W 95 - 82 72% +10  5 - 8 1 - 1 +4 +8 C+ B- C+ -5 F B+ A-
 Thu, Jan 8 313 @Northern Arizona W 78 - 65 60% +5  6 - 8 2 - 1 +7 +9 C- B- A+ -0 B D- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 190 @Northern Colorado W 76 - 71 34% +1  7 - 8 3 - 1 +6 +6 C+ D C- +0 A F+ C-
 Thu, Jan 15 245 Eastern Washington W 91 - 80 66% +1  8 - 8 4 - 1 +3 +6 C C+ C- -4 C+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 185 Idaho L 67 - 75 55% -9  8 - 9 4 - 2 -13 -14 F B+ F +3 B D- A
 Thu, Jan 22 158 @Montana L 65 - 81 27% -2  8 - 10 4 - 3 -13 -0 A- F D+ -14 F F B+
 Sat, Jan 24 166 @Montana St. L 88 - 91 29% -2  8 - 11 4 - 4 -0 +16 A+ D A -16 F D- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 227 Idaho St. W 81 - 79 63% -4  9 - 11 5 - 4 -5 +6 C B C- -11 F A+ C-
 Mon, Feb 2 274 @Sacramento St. L 82 - 83 50%
 Thu, Feb 5 190 Northern Colorado W 81 - 79 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 313 Northern Arizona W 81 - 72 79%
 Thu, Feb 12 185 @Idaho L 75 - 80 33%
 Sat, Feb 14 245 @Eastern Washington L 79 - 81 45%
 Thu, Feb 19 166 Montana St. W 76 - 75 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 158 Montana L 78 - 79 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 227 @Idaho St. L 75 - 78 40%
 Mon, Mar 2 149 @Portland St. L 70 - 77 26%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 9 -3 +0 C C C -3 C- D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 2.0 1st
2nd 0.3 2.3 3.3 0.9 0.0 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.0 7.4 2.1 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.5 7.1 12.6 4.1 0.1 24.3 4th
5th 0.2 5.5 13.1 4.7 0.3 0.0 23.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 8.6 3.5 0.1 14.2 6th
7th 0.4 4.6 3.6 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 2.7 0.3 4.7 8th
9th 0.2 1.1 0.3 1.6 9th
10th 0.2 0.1 0.2 10th
Total 0.5 3.1 9.9 18.3 24.1 21.6 14.2 6.3 1.8 0.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 96.0% 0.2    0.2 0.1
13-5 48.9% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 12.0% 0.8    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.3% 18.0% 18.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 1.8% 15.6% 15.6% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.5
12-6 6.3% 13.1% 13.1% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 5.5
11-7 14.2% 10.9% 10.9% 14.9 0.3 1.1 0.2 12.7
10-8 21.6% 7.9% 7.9% 15.2 0.0 1.3 0.4 19.9
9-9 24.1% 6.5% 6.5% 15.8 0.3 1.3 22.6
8-10 18.3% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8 17.5
7-11 9.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 9.7
6-12 3.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
5-13 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 15.2 93.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%