Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#286
Expected Predictive Rating-7.4#288
Pace64.6#279
Improvement-4.0#326

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#232
First Shot-2.7#254
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#138
Layup/Dunks-0.6#208
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#230
Freethrows-0.4#203
Improvement-2.6#312

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#306
First Shot-2.7#264
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#323
Layups/Dunks-2.5#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#224
Freethrows-2.1#317
Improvement-1.4#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.7% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.9% 10.0% 1.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.2% 10.7% 26.2%
First Four2.2% 2.6% 1.7%
First Round1.3% 1.5% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 51.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 82 - 13
Quad 48 - 810 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 76   @ Oregon St. L 48-76 7%     0 - 1 -18.0 -17.6 -2.9
  Nov 13, 2024 88   @ Nevada L 58-88 8%     0 - 2 -21.0 -5.2 -18.5
  Nov 17, 2024 180   @ Hawaii L 68-73 OT 21%     0 - 3 -3.4 -4.3 +0.9
  Nov 22, 2024 67   UC Irvine L 87-93 13%     0 - 4 -0.5 +14.4 -14.5
  Nov 29, 2024 312   Bowling Green W 73-70 57%     1 - 4 -5.6 -4.0 -1.5
  Nov 30, 2024 217   Pepperdine W 68-53 36%     2 - 4 +11.8 -5.1 +17.1
  Dec 04, 2024 139   North Dakota St. L 73-77 29%     2 - 5 -5.2 +5.1 -10.8
  Dec 07, 2024 269   @ North Dakota L 75-80 38%     2 - 6 -8.6 +0.3 -9.2
  Dec 13, 2024 292   @ Utah Tech W 73-71 42%     3 - 6 -2.6 +8.2 -10.5
  Dec 21, 2024 132   Utah Valley L 62-64 28%     3 - 7 -2.9 +3.3 -6.6
  Dec 29, 2024 45   @ Oregon L 49-89 4%     3 - 8 -25.9 -17.2 -8.7
  Jan 02, 2025 154   @ Northern Colorado L 72-89 18%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -13.9 -1.1 -12.8
  Jan 04, 2025 250   @ Northern Arizona L 77-80 35%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -5.8 +7.8 -13.7
  Jan 11, 2025 234   @ Idaho St. W 77-69 31%     4 - 10 1 - 2 +6.3 +7.8 -1.0
  Jan 16, 2025 207   Montana L 59-63 42%     4 - 11 1 - 3 -8.8 -8.4 -1.0
  Jan 18, 2025 189   Montana St. L 71-80 39%     4 - 12 1 - 4 -12.8 -1.1 -12.1
  Jan 23, 2025 215   @ Portland St. L 56-74 27%     4 - 13 1 - 5 -18.5 -11.3 -8.7
  Jan 25, 2025 337   @ Sacramento St. W 87-81 59%     5 - 13 2 - 5 -3.0 +15.8 -18.5
  Jan 30, 2025 249   Idaho L 74-82 54%     5 - 14 2 - 6 -15.7 -2.1 -14.1
  Feb 01, 2025 252   Eastern Washington L 49-72 54%     5 - 15 2 - 7 -30.8 -28.8 -1.2
  Feb 03, 2025 250   Northern Arizona W 77-73 54%     6 - 15 3 - 7 -3.7 -2.4 -1.5
  Feb 08, 2025 234   Idaho St. L 69-70 52%    
  Feb 13, 2025 189   @ Montana St. L 67-75 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 207   @ Montana L 70-77 25%    
  Feb 20, 2025 337   Sacramento St. W 70-63 76%    
  Feb 22, 2025 215   Portland St. L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 27, 2025 252   @ Eastern Washington L 70-74 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 249   @ Idaho L 71-75 34%    
  Mar 03, 2025 154   Northern Colorado L 73-78 33%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 3rd
4th 0.3 1.6 0.4 2.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.5 2.2 0.1 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 6.0 0.7 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 9.4 3.4 0.1 14.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 11.8 9.6 0.5 24.4 8th
9th 0.2 5.4 16.2 12.6 1.7 0.0 36.1 9th
10th 1.5 3.8 2.3 0.3 7.9 10th
Total 1.8 9.3 20.8 26.6 22.8 12.8 4.8 1.0 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 1.0% 11.5% 11.5% 16.0 0.1 0.9
9-9 4.8% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.3 4.5
8-10 12.8% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.6 12.2
7-11 22.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.5 22.3
6-12 26.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.4 26.3
5-13 20.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 20.6
4-14 9.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.2
3-15 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 16.0 2.2 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%