IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-6.4	#277
Expected Predictive Rating	-6.4	#267

Pace	72.5	#85
Improvement	+2.4	#82

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#190	C-	C	C	C-	C
Defense	#329	D-	C+	D+	D+	C

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	39%	#160	1.10	#258	-0.8	#206
2 Pt. Jumpers	21%	#175	0.74	#200	-0.1	#182
Three Pointers	40%	#203	0.98	#237	-1.3	#231
1st FG Attempt			0.97	#244	-2.2	#244
Freethrows	0.29	#229	69%	#291	0.20	#253
Second Chance	33.7%	#91	0.93	#297	0.31	#169
Turnovers					17.2%	#212
Total Offense					-0.8	#190

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	35%	#285	1.21	#253	+1.2	#135
2 Pt. Jumpers	20%	#191	0.86	#322	-0.9	#255
Three Pointers	45%	#69	1.19	#357	-5.9	#355
1st FG Attempt			1.13	#335	-5.6	#335
Freethrows	0.33	#287	74%	#270	0.25	#296
Second Chance	28.8%	#105	1.03	#192	0.30	#135
Turnovers					14.7%	#303
Total Defense					-5.6	#329

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	0.1%	#186	-0.4%	#135
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-4.4%	#251	11.2%	#352
Possession Length	17.4	#193	16.4	#49
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.13	#289	0.19	#257
Improvement	+4.2	#17	-1.8	#281

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.5%	2.7%	2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.8	16.0

.500 or above	1.5%	2.6%	0.5%
.500 or above in Conference	37.7%	54.8%	21.2%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.5%	0.1%	0.8%

First Four	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%
First Round	1.6%	1.7%	1.5%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Away) - 49.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 6
Quad 3	3 - 4	4 - 9
Quad 4	7 - 9	11 - 18

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	52 @Cincinnati	L	63 - 94	4%	-20	0 - 1		-18	-6	C-	C	F	-8	F	C	B+
Sat, Nov 8	3 @Duke	L	54 - 95	1%	-23	0 - 2		-14	-10	F	C-	B-	-1	A-	C+	D
Sun, Nov 16	329 Stetson	W	76 - 65	75%	+8	1 - 2		-2	-7	B	F	F	+4	A-	C-	F
Wed, Nov 19	209 UNC Asheville	W	80 - 73	48%	+1	2 - 2		+1	+12	D+	B-	A-	-10	F	A+	D+
Sat, Nov 22	178 @Lipscomb	L	62 - 83	22%	-12	2 - 3		-19	-14	F+	D	F	-4	D	C-	C-
Sat, Nov 29	98 @High Point	L	73 - 93	9%	-7	2 - 4		-12	-3	A-	F	F	-7	F	A+	A-
Sat, Dec 6	302 @South Carolina Upstate	L	67 - 78	45%	-4	2 - 5		-16	-7	F	D+	C+	-9	D+	C-	C
Thu, Dec 11	60 @Virginia Tech	L	74 - 96	5%	-15	2 - 6		-10	+5	B-	C	C	-14	F	D	C
Thu, Dec 18	34 @Georgia	L	82 - 112	2%	-16	2 - 7		-13	+6	A+	C+	C	-15	F	B+	C
Wed, Dec 31	200 Wofford	L	74 - 79	46%	-3	2 - 8	0 - 1	-11	-5	F	D+	F+	-5	D-	C+	B-
Sat, Jan 3	164 @Furman	W	80 - 77 OT	19%	+3	3 - 8	1 - 1	+6	+7	C	B+	D+	-1	C	B+	F
Wed, Jan 7	228 @Samford	L	77 - 82	29%	+6	3 - 9	1 - 2	-6	+5	F	A+	D	-11	D-	D+	D
Sat, Jan 10	344 @The Citadel	L	77 - 79 OT	59%	+2	3 - 10	1 - 3	-11	-0	F+	D-	B	-10	C	F	D-
Wed, Jan 14	131 East Tennessee St.	W	72 - 68	31%	-0	4 - 10	2 - 3	+3	+6	B-	B-	D	-3	C	A+	F
Sat, Jan 17	275 Chattanooga	L	82 - 90	61%	+3	4 - 11	2 - 4	-17	+11	B-	D	A+	-29	F	F+	F+
Wed, Jan 21	148 @Mercer	L	76 - 88	17%	-14	4 - 12	2 - 5	-8	+3	D-	B+	F	-11	B-	F	F
Sat, Jan 24	356 VMI	W	88 - 58	85%	+12	5 - 12	3 - 5	+13	+23	B-	A+	A+	-4	D+	C+	D-
Thu, Jan 29	131 @East Tennessee St.	W	90 - 88	15%	+9	6 - 12	4 - 5	+7	+21	B+	A+	A-	-14	D-	B-	F
Sun, Feb 1	228 Samford	L	74 - 88	51%	-8	6 - 13	4 - 6	-21	-7	F	F	B+	-13	F	D	B+
Wed, Feb 4	312 @UNC Greensboro	L	80 - 81	49%
Sat, Feb 7	200 @Wofford	L	77 - 84	26%
Wed, Feb 11	344 The Citadel	W	79 - 71	78%
Sat, Feb 14	275 @Chattanooga	L	76 - 79	38%
Wed, Feb 18	312 UNC Greensboro	W	83 - 77	70%
Sat, Feb 21	356 @VMI	W	82 - 77	68%
Wed, Feb 25	148 Mercer	L	82 - 86	35%
Sat, Feb 28	164 Furman	L	75 - 78	39%
Totals						10 - 17	8 - 10	-6	-1	C-	C	C	-6	D-	C+	D+

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st													0.0							0.0	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	0.2							0.5	2nd
3rd											0.5	1.4	0.2							2.1	3rd
4th									0.1	1.2	4.3	1.7								7.2	4th
5th								0.3	6.9	14.5	6.8	0.6								29.1	5th
6th							0.1	5.2	14.5	5.7	0.3									25.8	6th
7th							1.6	11.6	4.2	0.2										17.6	7th
8th						0.5	6.0	4.2	0.1											10.8	8th
9th					0.4	3.1	3.1	0.2												6.9	9th
10th					0.0	0.0														0.0	10th

Total					0.5	3.6	10.8	21.6	25.8	21.5	11.9	3.9	0.4								Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	4-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6	1.4%	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6	0.4%	11.3%	11.3%		14.8														0.0	0.0		0.3
11-7	3.9%	5.7%	5.7%		15.3															0.2	0.1	3.7
10-8	11.9%	4.0%	4.0%		15.9															0.0	0.5	11.4
9-9	21.5%	2.9%	2.9%		16.0																0.6	20.9
8-10	25.8%	2.6%	2.6%		16.0																0.7	25.2
7-11	21.6%	1.6%	1.6%		16.0																0.4	21.2
6-12	10.8%	0.8%	0.8%		16.0																0.1	10.7
5-13	3.6%	0.8%	0.8%		16.0																0.0	3.6
4-14	0.5%																					0.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	2.5%	2.5%	0.0%	15.9																	97.5	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%
Lose Out	0.3%