Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.8 #283
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 #257
Pace 74.5 #50
Improvement +1.7 #94

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #274 D+ C- D C C
Defense #272 F B- C- C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #132 1.11 #239 +0.0 #180
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #162 0.69 #258 -0.3 #193
Three Pointers 39% #232 0.97 #234 -2.0 #258
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #243 -2.3 #242
Freethrows 18.0 #149 71% #241 12.7 #171
Second Chance 31.7% #152 0.92 #314 0.29 #248
Turnovers 18.7% #296
Total Offense -3.6 #274

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #314 1.19 #217 +2.5 #93
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #102 0.91 #344 -2.8 #344
Three Pointers 44% #102 1.21 #357 -5.8 #345
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #335 -6.0 #336
Freethrows 18.2 #227 73% #225 13.3 #131
Second Chance 27.1% #69 1.04 #187 0.28 #90
Turnovers 15.6% #243
Total Defense -3.2 #272

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #189 -1.4% #71
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.7% #249 13.3% #351
Possession Length 16.8 #138 16.4 #56
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #332 0.20 #279
Improvement +1.7 #73 +0.0 #191

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.0% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 7.4% 9.6% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 39.3% 47.2% 20.6%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.3% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 1.2% 10.6%
First Four1.5% 1.6% 1.3%
First Round2.0% 2.3% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Away) - 70.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 48 - 711 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 58 @Cincinnati L 63 - 94 5%  -20  0 - 1 -19 -6 D+ C- F -9 F C A-
 Sat, Nov 8 6 @Duke L 54 - 95 1%  -23  0 - 2 -17 -12 F D+ C+ -1 A+ C F
 Sun, Nov 16 337 Stetson W 76 - 65 77%  +8  1 - 2 -3 -8 B- F F +4 A D+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 239 UNC Asheville W 80 - 73 52%  +1  2 - 2 -0 +10 D+ B- A -10 F A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 22 177 @Lipscomb L 62 - 83 21%  -12  2 - 3 -19 -13 F D F -5 D- C- C
 Sat, Nov 29 86 @High Point L 73 - 93 7%  -7  2 - 4 -10 -2 A+ F F -7 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 287 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 78 39%  -4  2 - 5 -15 -8 F D C -6 C C C
 Thu, Dec 11 68 @Virginia Tech L 74 - 96 5%  -15  2 - 6 -10 +4 B- C D+ -14 F D- C+
 Thu, Dec 18 24 @Georgia L 82 - 112 2%  -16  2 - 7 -11 +6 A+ C C- -14 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 223 Wofford L 74 - 79 48%  -3  2 - 8 0 - 1 -11 -5 F D F -6 F B- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 150 @Furman W 80 - 77 OT 17%  +3  3 - 8 1 - 1 +6 +7 C+ A D- -1 C B+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 229 @Samford L 77 - 82 28%  +6  3 - 9 1 - 2 -6 +5 F A+ D -11 F D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 360 @The Citadel W 78 - 73 70% 
 Wed, Jan 14 128 East Tennessee St. L 72 - 78 29% 
 Sat, Jan 17 273 Chattanooga W 77 - 74 60% 
 Wed, Jan 21 160 @Mercer L 75 - 85 19% 
 Sat, Jan 24 332 VMI W 81 - 74 74% 
 Thu, Jan 29 128 @East Tennessee St. L 69 - 81 14% 
 Sat, Jan 31 229 Samford L 77 - 78 50% 
 Wed, Feb 4 284 @UNC Greensboro L 77 - 80 39% 
 Sat, Feb 7 223 @Wofford L 74 - 81 27% 
 Wed, Feb 11 360 The Citadel W 81 - 70 85% 
 Sat, Feb 14 273 @Chattanooga L 74 - 77 38% 
 Wed, Feb 18 284 UNC Greensboro W 80 - 77 61% 
 Sat, Feb 21 332 @VMI W 78 - 77 53% 
 Wed, Feb 25 160 Mercer L 78 - 82 38% 
 Sat, Feb 28 150 Furman L 73 - 77 35% 
Totals 10 - 17 8 - 10 -7 -4 D+ C- D -3 F B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.8 3.0 0.5 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 6.6 4.6 0.6 0.0 14.7 5th
6th 0.3 3.4 8.3 5.8 0.9 0.0 18.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.0 8.3 5.6 0.9 0.0 19.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 15.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.8 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.4 8.0 13.0 16.2 17.2 14.9 11.5 7.1 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 93.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 73.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 26.4% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 20.5% 20.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.4% 16.4% 16.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2
12-6 3.8% 8.8% 8.8% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.4
11-7 7.1% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.7
10-8 11.5% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 11.0
9-9 14.9% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.5 14.5
8-10 17.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 16.9
7-11 16.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 16.0
6-12 13.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.9
5-13 8.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.9
4-14 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.4
3-15 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.7 97.4 0.0%