Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.5#323
Expected Predictive Rating-11.8#331
Pace75.4#40
Improvement+1.5#111

Offense
Total Offense-6.9#337
First Shot-6.2#334
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#236
Layup/Dunks-2.5#277
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#113
Freethrows-3.6#353
Improvement+3.3#31

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#257
First Shot-5.5#340
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#11
Layups/Dunks-0.6#189
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#278
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#307
Freethrows-0.7#237
Improvement-1.8#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.7% 6.6% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.0% 5.6% 24.9%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Away) - 46.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 91 - 16
Quad 46 - 57 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 225   @ Queens L 54-67 20%     0 - 1 -13.6 -26.7 +14.4
  Nov 19, 2024 61   @ Wake Forest L 69-82 3%     0 - 2 -1.3 +4.3 -5.6
  Nov 26, 2024 63   @ Florida St. L 57-91 4%     0 - 3 -22.4 -14.3 -5.4
  Nov 30, 2024 16   @ Marquette L 62-94 1%     0 - 4 -12.4 -9.2 +0.8
  Dec 04, 2024 351   Bellarmine W 86-74 74%     1 - 4 -4.1 +0.5 -4.7
  Dec 07, 2024 339   South Carolina Upstate L 68-74 67%     1 - 5 -20.1 -13.6 -6.3
  Dec 14, 2024 177   @ UNC Asheville L 61-78 14%     1 - 6 -14.8 -16.6 +2.2
  Dec 17, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 36-84 1%     1 - 7 -26.1 -25.2 +1.2
  Jan 01, 2025 116   Furman L 61-90 19%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -29.3 -11.6 -17.8
  Jan 04, 2025 105   Samford L 69-88 17%     1 - 9 0 - 2 -18.2 -10.3 -7.0
  Jan 08, 2025 160   @ Wofford L 69-77 12%     1 - 10 0 - 3 -4.9 -2.7 -2.4
  Jan 12, 2025 232   Mercer W 85-82 39%     2 - 10 1 - 3 -3.8 +2.8 -6.8
  Jan 15, 2025 344   @ VMI L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 18, 2025 135   UNC Greensboro L 66-74 22%    
  Jan 22, 2025 154   @ East Tennessee St. L 67-80 11%    
  Jan 25, 2025 349   @ The Citadel W 69-68 50%    
  Jan 29, 2025 169   Chattanooga L 74-80 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 344   VMI W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 05, 2025 116   @ Furman L 63-78 8%    
  Feb 08, 2025 135   @ UNC Greensboro L 63-77 9%    
  Feb 12, 2025 154   East Tennessee St. L 70-77 26%    
  Feb 15, 2025 349   The Citadel W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 19, 2025 169   @ Chattanooga L 71-83 14%    
  Feb 22, 2025 105   @ Samford L 73-89 7%    
  Feb 26, 2025 160   Wofford L 69-76 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 232   @ Mercer L 72-81 21%    
Projected Record 6 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.2 0.2 5.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.3 5.4 3.1 0.4 0.0 14.8 7th
8th 1.9 10.7 16.9 12.3 4.7 0.6 0.0 47.2 8th
9th 2.0 8.2 8.5 3.4 0.5 0.0 22.6 9th
10th 1.1 3.4 2.9 0.6 0.0 8.0 10th
Total 1.1 5.4 13.0 20.0 21.9 17.4 11.3 6.2 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 4.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
9-9 2.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.3
8-10 6.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 6.1
7-11 11.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.2
6-12 17.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.4
5-13 21.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.9
4-14 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.9
3-15 13.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.0
2-16 5.4% 5.4
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%