Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.8 247
Results Rating -5.8 253
Pace 70.9 116
Improvement +5.2 23

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 167 D+ C+ C D+ C
Defense D 310 D C+ D+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 178 D+ 53% 296 -1.8 244
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% 163 C 39% 140 +0.1 169
Three Pointers 41% 184 C- 33% 243 -0.9 216
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 189 D+ -2.5 268
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 258
Second Chance B- 33.7% 85 C- 1.00 232 C+ 0.34 117
Turnovers C 17.0% 190
Freethrows D+ 0.28 248 C- 70% 248 D+ 0.20 258
Total Offense C -0.1 167

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 242 B 8.7% 55
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 314 B- 3.7% 84
Three Pointers F 72% 356 C+ 0.8% 150
Total D 48% 318 B 4.4% 52

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 222 C- 60% 224 -0.1 173
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 201 D- 43% 331 +0.7 243
Three Pointers 43% 106 F+ 39% 350 +4.1 339
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 172 D- +4.5 332
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 325
Second Chance B- 28.1% 89 C 1.03 176 C+ 0.29 112
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 276
Freethrows C- 0.32 224 D- 76% 341 D+ 0.24 260
Total Defense D -4.8 310

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 41% 44 D+ 8.8% 259
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 179 D+ 3.2% 283
Three Pointers B 79% 55 C- 0.6% 222
Total B- 52% 99 D+ 4.2% 297

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 217 16.5 41
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 276 0.19 253
Improvement +4.1 #18 +1.0 #127

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 269 249 219
Results Rating Rank 294 257 225
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 7 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 6% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1% 3% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 71% 100% 45%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 4% 4%
First Round3% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 47.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 32 - 43 - 9
Quad 49 - 812 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 43 @Cincinnati L 63 - 94 4% -20  0% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F+ -8 C- C- F D+ -4 F B- B+
 Sat, Nov 8 2 @Duke L 54 - 95 1% -23  4% 0 - 2 D- -13 F -12 F C- B- C+ +2 A C+ D
 Sun, Nov 16 326 Stetson W 76 - 65 80% +8  84% 1 - 2 C- -3 F -11 B F F A- +7 A C- F
 Wed, Nov 19 223 UNC Asheville W 80 - 73 57% +1  58% 2 - 2 C +0 A- +10 C- B A- F+ -9 F A C
 Sat, Nov 22 188 @Lipscomb L 62 - 83 28% -12  17% 2 - 3 F -20 F -16 F D+ F C- -3 D+ D D
 Sat, Nov 29 90 @High Point L 73 - 93 10% -7  36% 2 - 4 D -11 D -5 A F F+ D -5 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 297 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 78 50% -4  4% 2 - 5 F+ -16 F -10 F D B- D -5 D+ C- C
 Thu, Dec 11 57 @Virginia Tech L 74 - 96 6% -15  0% 2 - 6 D -9 C+ +2 B- C D+ F -11 F D- C+
 Thu, Dec 18 32 @Georgia L 82 - 112 3% -16  0% 2 - 7 D- -12 C+ +2 A B- C F -10 F A- C-
 Wed, Dec 31 238 Wofford L 74 - 79 59% -3  20% 2 - 8 0 - 1 D- -12 F+ -9 F D+ F C- -3 D- C B-
 Sat, Jan 3 175 @Furman W 80 - 77 OT 26% +3  65% 3 - 8 1 - 1 B- +5 B- +5 C A D C -0 C- B+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 190 @Samford L 77 - 82 28% +6  88% 3 - 9 1 - 2 C- -4 C+ +3 F A+ D+ D- -7 D- D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 348 @The Citadel L 77 - 79 OT 70% +2  60% 3 - 10 1 - 3 D- -12 D+ -3 F D- A- F+ -9 D+ F D
 Wed, Jan 14 131 East Tennessee St. W 72 - 68 36% -0  38% 4 - 10 2 - 3 C+ +3 B- +4 B B- D- C -1 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 274 Chattanooga L 82 - 90 67% +3  59% 4 - 11 2 - 4 F+ -17 B+ +7 B D A F -25 F D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 178 @Mercer L 76 - 88 26% -14  0% 4 - 12 2 - 5 D -10 C -0 D- B+ F F -10 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 24 358 VMI W 88 - 58 90% +12  84% 5 - 12 3 - 5 B +11 A+ +19 C+ A+ A+ C- -3 D+ C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 131 @East Tennessee St. W 90 - 88 18% +9  100% 6 - 12 4 - 5 B- +7 A+ +19 A- A+ B+ F -12 D- C+ F
 Sun, Feb 1 190 Samford L 74 - 88 50% -8  8% 6 - 13 4 - 6 F -19 F+ -8 F F+ A- F -10 F D+ B+
 Wed, Feb 4 301 @UNC Greensboro L 78 - 81 52% -0  46% 6 - 14 4 - 7 D -8 C +0 D+ D+ D+ F+ -8 D+ F+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 238 @Wofford L 66 - 77 36% -5  18% 6 - 15 4 - 8 D- -12 F -11 F B- C- C -1 F A A-
 Wed, Feb 11 348 The Citadel W 87 - 49 85% +26  97% 7 - 15 5 - 8 A +22 A +14 B A+ B A+ +12 A+ B+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 274 @Chattanooga W 81 - 76 44% +10  96% 8 - 15 6 - 8 C+ +2 B- +5 D A C- C- -3 D F F+
 Wed, Feb 18 301 UNC Greensboro W 91 - 77 73% +6  87% 9 - 15 7 - 8 C+ +3 B +6 C+ A+ C- D+ -3 F A+ B-
 Sat, Feb 21 358 @VMI W 81 - 62 79% +11  99% 10 - 15 8 - 8 B- +6 B +6 F+ C- A+ C+ +2 F+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 178 Mercer L 82 - 83 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 175 Furman L 74 - 75 46%
Totals 11 - 16 9 - 9 -5 C +0 F D+ C D -5 C- C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C C- D+ 39% 39% 41% C D+ B- C- C+ C D+ C- D+ D C- D- F+ D- 37% 20% 43% C D B- C C+ D+ C- D- D+
1.09 53% 39% 33% -2 0 0.97 34% 1.0 .34 17% .28 70% .20 1.15 60% 43% 39% +4 0 1.11 28% 1.0 .29 15% .32 76% .22
Nov
3		 Cincinnati F+ D- F B- C 30% 26% 43% D+ C- A- F C- F C- F D D+ F F D F 35% 19% 46% C F A+ F B- B+ F B- F
0.79 44% 29% 35% -6 -1 0.87 33% 0.7 .23 28% .24 57% .14 1.18 78% 60% 38% +13 0 1.29 23% 1.3 .30 19% .46 67% .31
Nov
8		 Duke F D- F+ F F 34% 31% 36% C- F B+ F C- B- D+ F D- C+ C F A A 42% 6% 53% C A A F C+ D F D F
0.71 45% 28% 19% -16 -2 0.68 28% 0.5 .15 18% .18 55% .10 1.24 64% 67% 29% 0 +2 1.06 33% 1.5 .48 13% .50 76% .38
Nov
16		 Stetson F C- A A+ B 40% 8% 52% B+ B F F+ F F F C F+ A- A+ D A A 31% 29% 40% B+ A C+ D C- F C- C+ C-
1.04 60% 50% 42% +8 +2 1.22 23% 1.0 .23 25% .20 73% .15 0.89 39% 41% 26% -10 -2 0.79 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 68% .21
Nov
19		 UNC Asheville A- C+ B F C- 49% 24% 27% C- C- A+ F+ B A- A+ A+ A+ F+ F D F F 15% 43% 43% A F B A+ A C F A+ C
1.24 59% 45% 25% -1 0 1.00 49% 0.7 .36 12% .51 79% .41 1.13 71% 45% 50% +15 -5 1.23 25% 0.6 .16 17% .43 52% .22
Nov
22		 Lipscomb F A+ A+ F F 25% 22% 53% C- F F A+ D+ F C- F D- C- D A+ D- D 35% 10% 55% C D+ C- F+ D D A+ A+ A+
0.83 77% 55% 15% -7 -1 0.86 15% 1.8 .26 24% .27 60% .16 1.11 64% 17% 38% +3 +1 1.11 25% 1.2 .30 15% .09 50% .05
Nov
29		 High Point D A+ A+ C+ A+ 31% 24% 45% D- A C- F F F+ C+ F D+ D F F F F 34% 21% 45% A F B A+ A+ A C+ B B-
0.98 75% 58% 35% +11 -1 1.22 30% 0.1 .03 26% .33 61% .20 1.25 72% 64% 46% +18 0 1.38 29% 0.6 .18 19% .35 71% .25
Dec
6		 South Carolina Upstate F F F F F 46% 20% 34% C F F A- D B- A+ A+ A+ D F C B D 24% 24% 51% A- D+ A F C- C F F F
0.93 43% 10% 24% -18 +1 0.68 21% 1.3 .29 14% .45 82% .37 1.09 73% 36% 30% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.3 .28 18% .51 80% .41
Dec
11		 Virginia Tech C+ F B+ A B- 41% 22% 37% C+ B- A- F C D+ A+ F A+ F C- D+ F F 35% 18% 47% C F D D+ D- C+ D- A C-
1.02 45% 45% 39% -1 0 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 19% .51 60% .31 1.32 63% 40% 50% +13 0 1.29 37% 1.2 .43 15% .37 65% .24
Dec
18		 Georgia C+ A- A B+ A+ 38% 26% 36% D+ A F A+ B- C C+ F C- F C- F F F 49% 16% 35% C F A B- A- C- F D+ F
1.02 64% 47% 38% +7 -1 1.14 18% 1.8 .32 20% .26 59% .15 1.39 64% 63% 56% +18 +1 1.41 31% 1.0 .31 14% .58 78% .45
Dec
31		 Wofford F+ D F F F 61% 4% 35% A+ F A+ F D+ F A+ F A+ C- A F F+ F+ 32% 12% 56% C+ D- B+ F+ C B- D- C+ D
1.04 52% 0% 22% -12 +4 0.86 43% 0.7 .30 20% .51 69% .35 1.11 44% 67% 39% +3 +1 1.10 24% 1.1 .26 17% .39 70% .27
Jan
3		 Furman B- F D- A+ C+ 40% 33% 27% D- C A B- A D B- F C- C F B+ C- D 27% 25% 48% A+ C- B- B+ B+ F C A+ A-
1.12 41% 33% 53% 0 -1 0.98 41% 1.1 .44 17% .27 63% .17 1.08 80% 36% 33% +5 -1 1.09 26% 0.8 .21 14% .28 47% .13
Jan
7		 Samford C+ F F A- F 52% 28% 20% B+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D- B+ F+ F D- 37% 21% 42% C D- C- D+ D+ D- C+ F F
1.14 46% 21% 40% -9 0 0.84 41% 1.5 .59 15% .44 88% .38 1.22 53% 45% 41% +4 0 1.10 26% 1.1 .29 10% .35 90% .31
Jan
10		 The Citadel D+ C D- F+ F 35% 15% 50% C- F D+ F D- A- D+ F+ D F+ C+ D C+ D+ 35% 20% 45% C D+ F F F D F F F
1.10 62% 33% 30% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.8 .24 11% .26 63% .16 1.13 53% 40% 32% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 16% .47 82% .39
Jan
14		 East Tennessee St. B- C A+ B- B+ 36% 17% 47% C- B A D- B- D- D- C D C C A C C+ 44% 14% 42% D C+ D+ A+ A+ F F B- D-
1.15 59% 63% 36% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.8 .32 22% .25 75% .18 1.08 59% 29% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.5 .13 8% .40 74% .29
Jan
17		 Chattanooga B+ F A+ A+ B 40% 23% 37% C- B B+ F D A C F D F D+ A+ F F 32% 8% 60% F F C F D- F D- F F
1.26 43% 67% 42% +5 0 1.12 39% 0.8 .32 9% .36 62% .22 1.38 63% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 21% 1.4 .29 11% .33 95% .31
Jan
21		 Mercer C D- C D F 42% 10% 48% A- D- A- C B+ F B- D+ C+ F D+ F A+ B+ 44% 11% 44% F B- F C F F F B- F
1.09 50% 40% 32% -5 +2 0.96 41% 1.0 .41 23% .28 73% .20 1.26 63% 67% 21% -4 +2 0.98 47% 1.0 .47 10% .45 71% .32
Jan
24		 VMI A+ D+ A- A C 41% 11% 48% B+ C+ A+ B- A+ A+ F F F C- D- A+ D+ D 27% 14% 59% C+ D+ A+ F C+ D- A+ F A+
1.51 59% 50% 42% +8 +1 1.20 57% 1.1 .63 7% .06 33% .02 1.00 62% 0% 34% -4 0 0.94 16% 1.4 .22 14% .12 83% .10
Jan
29		 East Tennessee St. A+ A+ F B A 33% 15% 52% C- A- B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C A+ F C- F C- F+ 40% 20% 40% C+ D- C+ C C+ F F D F
1.31 87% 14% 38% +8 0 1.20 35% 1.3 .45 16% .49 75% .37 1.29 60% 60% 35% +6 0 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 9% .56 80% .45
Feb
1		 Samford F+ D- D- F F 35% 26% 39% C+ F D+ F F+ A- A C A- F F A+ F F 36% 11% 52% F+ F F+ B- D+ B+ F D- F
1.02 50% 33% 27% -8 -1 0.84 23% 0.8 .18 10% .37 75% .28 1.21 75% 20% 39% +8 +1 1.20 30% 1.0 .30 17% .68 73% .50
Feb
4		 UNC Greensboro C F A+ B- C- 28% 26% 45% D- D+ B+ F D+ D+ A+ D- A- F+ A+ F+ F D+ 40% 19% 40% D- D+ F B F+ B F F F
1.17 40% 64% 38% +4 -1 1.08 37% 0.8 .29 15% .37 67% .25 1.21 37% 44% 47% +1 0 1.04 39% 0.9 .36 18% .49 89% .44
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Wofford F F F F F 51% 7% 42% A- F C+ B- B- C- F F F C F D- C F 49% 17% 34% C- F A+ C- A A- A+ F B
0.96 43% 25% 26% -14 +3 0.80 32% 1.2 .39 16% .17 60% .10 1.12 69% 44% 33% +6 +1 1.17 15% 1.0 .15 19% .22 92% .20
Feb
11		 The Citadel A C F A+ C+ 53% 4% 43% A B A- A+ A+ B F F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 36% 16% 49% D+ A+ A- B- B+ C+ C- F F
1.39 63% 0% 45% +9 +3 1.25 40% 1.6 .63 13% .20 55% .11 0.78 44% 14% 23% -17 0 0.69 21% 0.9 .18 19% .28 93% .26
Feb
14		 Chattanooga B- F A- C- D 35% 18% 47% C D A+ C- A C- A- A A+ C- C F B- D- 30% 25% 46% B D C F F F+ A+ F A+
1.18 44% 44% 33% -4 0 0.94 47% 1.1 .53 15% .42 80% .34 1.10 59% 64% 31% +4 -1 1.09 21% 1.7 .34 12% .10 100% .10
Feb
18		 UNC Greensboro B C B+ A B- 29% 25% 46% D C+ D A+ A+ C- A A- A+ D+ D- F D F 51% 12% 37% F F A- A+ A+ B- B- C- C+
1.29 60% 46% 42% +8 -1 1.15 27% 2.1 .57 14% .36 77% .28 1.09 65% 50% 37% +7 +2 1.20 21% 0.3 .07 17% .34 70% .24
Feb
21		 VMI B C+ A- D D- 21% 26% 53% F F+ F A+ C- A+ D+ A+ B- C+ B- B- F F 31% 18% 51% B- F+ A+ A+ A+ F A A A
1.28 64% 50% 32% +3 -2 1.04 29% 1.3 .37 5% .28 88% .25 0.98 50% 33% 38% 0 0 1.02 14% 0.6 .08 11% .20 64% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.3 0.3 2nd
3rd 3.6 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 11.2 11.2 4th
5th 2.1 7.4 9.5 5th
6th 16.1 43.5 59.6 6th
7th 12.8 2.9 15.7 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 28.9 48.5 22.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 22.6% 6.2% 6.2% 15.8 0.2 1.2 21.2
9-9 48.5% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 2.8 45.7
8-10 28.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.8 28.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 16.0 95.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 15.8 15.1 84.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.8%
Lose Out 5.9%