Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#196
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#216
Pace69.3#153
Improvement-1.8#269

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#123
First Shot+6.5#35
After Offensive Rebound-4.6#359
Layup/Dunks+1.8#117
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#44
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#62
Freethrows-2.0#297
Improvement-0.9#240

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#277
First Shot-3.2#278
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#217
Layups/Dunks-3.4#304
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#156
Freethrows+1.6#75
Improvement-0.9#233
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 9.6% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 51.6% 74.8% 41.4%
.500 or above in Conference 71.4% 90.3% 63.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.3% 0.9%
First Round7.2% 9.5% 6.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Away) - 30.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 94 - 12
Quad 412 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 22   @ Kentucky L 62-103 4%     0 - 1 -22.8 -9.9 -10.4
  Nov 09, 2024 173   @ Miami (OH) W 81-68 36%     1 - 1 +15.1 +6.9 +7.9
  Nov 13, 2024 201   @ Toledo L 77-86 42%     1 - 2 -8.5 -2.2 -6.0
  Nov 21, 2024 129   Princeton W 80-62 37%     2 - 2 +19.9 +11.8 +9.0
  Nov 22, 2024 94   Bradley L 74-77 24%     2 - 3 +2.8 +14.6 -12.2
  Nov 24, 2024 177   South Florida L 72-73 47%     2 - 4 -1.8 +0.6 -2.4
  Nov 30, 2024 277   Air Force W 70-57 76%     3 - 4 +4.1 +1.6 +4.1
  Dec 05, 2024 188   @ Oakland L 64-66 39%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -0.9 -0.1 -1.1
  Dec 07, 2024 323   @ Detroit Mercy W 80-72 71%     4 - 5 1 - 1 +0.5 +10.1 -9.2
  Dec 11, 2024 182   Marshall W 88-79 58%     5 - 5 +5.4 +7.1 -2.4
  Dec 18, 2024 219   Youngstown St. L 70-80 65%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -15.7 -2.9 -12.9
  Dec 21, 2024 300   @ Eastern Michigan L 82-86 64%     5 - 7 -9.3 +6.6 -16.0
  Dec 29, 2024 157   @ Cleveland St. L 64-78 33%     5 - 8 1 - 3 -11.0 -0.6 -11.5
  Jan 02, 2025 347   Green Bay W 74-51 88%     6 - 8 2 - 3 +8.5 -6.8 +15.5
  Jan 09, 2025 188   Oakland W 66-62 58%     7 - 8 3 - 3 +0.2 -2.2 +2.9
  Jan 12, 2025 194   @ Robert Morris L 72-75 40%     7 - 9 3 - 4 -2.1 -1.5 -0.5
  Jan 15, 2025 149   Purdue Fort Wayne L 113-120 2OT 50%     7 - 10 3 - 5 -8.6 +10.5 -17.5
  Jan 18, 2025 244   @ Northern Kentucky W 78-70 53%     8 - 10 4 - 5 +5.6 +6.8 -1.2
  Jan 22, 2025 133   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 79-95 47%     8 - 11 4 - 6 -16.9 +5.3 -22.2
  Jan 25, 2025 323   Detroit Mercy W 67-50 84%     9 - 11 5 - 6 +4.6 -0.3 +7.1
  Jan 30, 2025 219   @ Youngstown St. L 86-88 47%     9 - 12 5 - 7 -2.8 +7.6 -10.2
  Feb 02, 2025 194   Robert Morris W 66-64 59%     10 - 12 6 - 7 -2.1 -2.8 +1.0
  Feb 05, 2025 149   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 79-84 30%    
  Feb 08, 2025 330   IU Indianapolis W 83-72 87%    
  Feb 14, 2025 133   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 75-81 27%    
  Feb 16, 2025 347   @ Green Bay W 81-73 75%    
  Feb 21, 2025 244   Northern Kentucky W 74-68 72%    
  Feb 27, 2025 157   Cleveland St. W 73-72 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 330   @ IU Indianapolis W 80-74 71%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.2 0.9 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 1.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 5.9 0.3 8.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 9.5 3.4 15.4 5th
6th 0.0 2.4 13.3 11.3 0.4 27.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 12.2 14.2 2.8 0.0 31.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.4 4.8 1.1 0.0 11.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 1.7 7.2 19.5 31.1 26.3 11.9 2.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 2.1% 16.0% 16.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8
12-8 11.9% 13.0% 13.0% 14.5 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 10.3
11-9 26.3% 9.1% 9.1% 15.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.4 24.0
10-10 31.1% 6.0% 6.0% 15.2 0.0 1.4 0.4 29.2
9-11 19.5% 4.9% 4.9% 15.8 0.2 0.8 18.6
8-12 7.2% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.3 6.9
7-13 1.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 1.6
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.9 2.0 92.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.3 5.9 61.8 26.5 5.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%