Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.5 #148
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 #181
Pace 66.0 #268
Improvement -0.4 #203

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #147 C C+ C C C
Defense #166 C C B- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #83 1.14 #206 +1.8 #116
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #171 0.82 #97 +0.8 #135
Three Pointers 37% #268 1.03 #166 -1.8 #250
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #156 +0.8 #155
Freethrows 18.1 #148 72% #194 13.1 #155
Second Chance 29.5% #225 1.18 #50 0.35 #123
Turnovers 16.8% #193
Total Offense +0.6 #147

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #26 1.15 #168 -3.9 #308
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #107 0.81 #264 -1.5 #284
Three Pointers 32% #356 0.92 #70 +6.1 #13
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #150 +0.7 #149
Freethrows 17.1 #170 72% #151 12.2 #191
Second Chance 33.6% #287 0.96 #73 0.32 #184
Turnovers 18.3% #88
Total Defense -0.1 #166

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #159 0.5% #208
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.2% #156 -1.9% #145
Possession Length 18.4 #290 17.0 #140
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #277 0.17 #159
Improvement +1.7 #76 -2.1 #303

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.2% 25.8% 20.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 93.2% 98.1% 90.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 100.0% 98.4%
Conference Champion 34.9% 59.3% 22.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round22.1% 25.8% 20.3%
Second Round0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 33.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 64 - 9
Quad 414 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 84 @California L 67 - 77 19%  -6  0 - 1 -0 -1 F B+ A+ +0 C+ A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 180 Toledo L 71 - 81 68%  -4  0 - 2 -14 -3 B- B- F -12 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 234 Radford W 92 - 59 67%  +13  1 - 2 +29 +13 A+ C C+ +15 A- A+ A
 Sun, Nov 16 138 Kent St. L 72 - 76 OT 47%  +2  1 - 3 -3 -6 F C B +3 A+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 337 @Stetson W 79 - 62 80%  +15  2 - 3 +9 +8 B+ B F +2 C F B
 Fri, Nov 28 57 @Butler L 69 - 94 14%  -5  2 - 4 -13 -3 C C D+ -7 F D D
 Wed, Dec 3 210 @Youngstown St. L 68 - 69 51%  -0  2 - 5 0 - 1 -1 -2 C+ C- C +2 B- F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 249 Green Bay W 86 - 58 79%  +12  3 - 5 1 - 1 +20 +10 C- A+ B +11 A+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 13 159 @Marshall L 74 - 76 41%  +1  3 - 6 +1 +10 B+ D A+ -9 C F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 93 Miami (OH) L 76 - 83 41%  -8  3 - 7 -4 +1 D C- A- -4 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 197 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 64 71%  +1  4 - 7 +1 -2 B- F F +3 B A+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 124 Oakland W 88 - 73 55%  +14  5 - 7 2 - 1 +14 +9 A+ C F +5 A+ A A+
 Thu, Jan 1 226 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 70 75%  +7  6 - 7 3 - 1 -1 +4 F A- B+ -4 C B F
 Sun, Jan 4 355 @IU Indianapolis W 81 - 77 85%  +5  7 - 7 4 - 1 -6 +5 D+ A+ F -11 F C C
 Fri, Jan 9 281 @Detroit Mercy W 84 - 82 66%  +6  8 - 7 5 - 1 -2 +8 B+ F F -9 C F C-
 Sun, Jan 11 124 @Oakland L 78 - 83 33% 
 Thu, Jan 15 210 Youngstown St. W 74 - 68 72% 
 Wed, Jan 21 321 Cleveland St. W 83 - 70 90% 
 Sat, Jan 24 174 Northern Kentucky W 76 - 71 67% 
 Fri, Jan 30 226 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 75 54% 
 Sun, Feb 1 249 @Green Bay W 71 - 69 59% 
 Wed, Feb 4 206 @Robert Morris W 72 - 71 50% 
 Sat, Feb 7 243 Purdue Fort Wayne W 78 - 70 77% 
 Thu, Feb 12 281 Detroit Mercy W 79 - 69 82% 
 Sun, Feb 15 321 @Cleveland St. W 80 - 73 75% 
 Thu, Feb 19 355 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 74 94% 
 Sun, Feb 22 206 Robert Morris W 75 - 69 71% 
 Wed, Feb 25 243 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 75 - 73 57% 
 Sat, Feb 28 174 @Northern Kentucky L 73 - 74 46% 
Totals 17 - 12 14 - 6 +1 +1 C C+ C +0 C C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.1 8.6 10.9 7.9 3.3 0.6 34.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 5.5 11.3 10.2 4.4 0.9 0.1 33.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.7 7.3 4.1 0.7 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 4.0 1.9 0.2 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.3 0.1 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 5.6 9.8 15.3 18.7 19.4 15.4 8.8 3.4 0.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
18-2 98.1% 3.3    3.2 0.1
17-3 89.8% 7.9    6.5 1.4 0.0
16-4 71.2% 10.9    7.1 3.6 0.2
15-5 44.1% 8.6    3.8 3.9 0.8 0.0
14-6 16.5% 3.1    0.6 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.9% 34.9 21.9 10.6 2.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.6% 45.0% 45.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4
18-2 3.4% 36.7% 36.7% 13.1 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1
17-3 8.8% 32.0% 32.0% 13.7 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.2 6.0
16-4 15.4% 29.9% 29.9% 14.0 0.0 1.0 2.6 1.0 0.0 10.8
15-5 19.4% 25.5% 25.5% 14.3 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.7 0.1 14.5
14-6 18.7% 21.1% 21.1% 14.6 0.2 1.5 2.0 0.2 14.7
13-7 15.3% 15.7% 15.7% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.3 12.9
12-8 9.8% 12.7% 12.7% 15.3 0.1 0.8 0.4 8.6
11-9 5.6% 10.5% 10.5% 15.4 0.4 0.2 5.0
10-10 2.1% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.0
9-11 0.8% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 14.3 77.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.2 10.3 60.3 29.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%