Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#168
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#207
Pace69.3#171
Improvement-2.9#329

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#90
First Shot+8.1#14
After Offensive Rebound-5.0#360
Layup/Dunks+0.6#157
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#24
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#32
Freethrows-1.5#276
Improvement+0.2#159

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#288
First Shot-2.7#266
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#254
Layups/Dunks-3.4#306
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#111
Freethrows+1.3#89
Improvement-3.2#351
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.8% 16.6% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 73.6% 84.6% 63.3%
.500 or above in Conference 81.4% 90.4% 73.0%
Conference Champion 9.8% 15.4% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round13.6% 16.5% 10.9%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Away) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 75 - 9
Quad 412 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 16   @ Kentucky L 62-103 5%     0 - 1 -22.5 -8.0 -12.1
  Nov 09, 2024 200   @ Miami (OH) W 81-68 44%     1 - 1 +14.2 +7.9 +6.0
  Nov 13, 2024 208   @ Toledo L 77-86 46%     1 - 2 -8.3 -1.1 -7.0
  Nov 21, 2024 110   Princeton W 80-62 35%     2 - 2 +21.5 +11.5 +11.0
  Nov 22, 2024 78   Bradley L 74-77 23%     2 - 3 +4.4 +13.3 -9.3
  Nov 24, 2024 169   South Florida L 72-73 50%     2 - 4 -1.5 -0.4 -1.1
  Nov 30, 2024 268   Air Force W 70-57 79%     3 - 4 +4.2 +1.6 +4.2
  Dec 05, 2024 183   @ Oakland L 64-66 41%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
  Dec 07, 2024 321   @ Detroit Mercy W 80-72 70%     4 - 5 1 - 1 +2.0 +8.8 -6.5
  Dec 11, 2024 199   Marshall W 88-79 66%     5 - 5 +4.2 +6.6 -3.0
  Dec 18, 2024 187   Youngstown St. L 70-80 65%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -14.4 -0.7 -13.7
  Dec 21, 2024 305   @ Eastern Michigan L 82-86 67%     5 - 7 -8.9 +7.2 -16.2
  Dec 29, 2024 218   @ Cleveland St. L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 02, 2025 329   Green Bay W 86-74 87%    
  Jan 09, 2025 183   Oakland W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 12, 2025 256   @ Robert Morris W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 15, 2025 160   Purdue Fort Wayne W 84-81 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 205   @ Northern Kentucky L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 22, 2025 132   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 81-80 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 321   Detroit Mercy W 80-68 86%    
  Jan 30, 2025 187   @ Youngstown St. L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 02, 2025 256   Robert Morris W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 05, 2025 160   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 81-84 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 351   IU Indianapolis W 83-68 91%    
  Feb 14, 2025 132   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 78-83 32%    
  Feb 16, 2025 329   @ Green Bay W 83-77 71%    
  Feb 21, 2025 205   Northern Kentucky W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 27, 2025 218   Cleveland St. W 77-71 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 351   @ IU Indianapolis W 80-71 79%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.5 2.7 1.0 0.2 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.8 3.1 0.7 0.1 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.1 7.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.3 3.4 0.3 0.0 15.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.8 3.8 0.4 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.8 3.7 0.4 0.0 12.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 5.4 8.7 12.2 15.3 16.2 14.8 11.2 7.0 3.5 1.1 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-3 94.3% 1.0    0.9 0.1
16-4 79.2% 2.7    1.9 0.8 0.1
15-5 49.5% 3.5    1.6 1.4 0.4 0.0
14-6 17.8% 2.0    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 4.9 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 29.9% 29.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 1.1% 39.1% 39.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7
16-4 3.5% 32.3% 32.3% 13.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 2.3
15-5 7.0% 27.4% 27.4% 13.8 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.1
14-6 11.2% 22.7% 22.7% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.0 8.6
13-7 14.8% 17.3% 17.3% 14.5 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.1 12.2
12-8 16.2% 13.0% 13.0% 14.8 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.3 14.1
11-9 15.3% 10.3% 10.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.4 13.7
10-10 12.2% 7.1% 7.1% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 11.3
9-11 8.7% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.1 0.3 8.3
8-12 5.4% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.2
7-13 2.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.7
6-14 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
5-15 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-16 0.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.7 5.1 1.7 86.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.8 26.9 61.5 11.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%