Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#292
Expected Predictive Rating-12.7#321
Pace58.0#361
Improvement-0.5#242

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#237
First Shot+0.6#151
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#323
Layup/Dunks-1.8#243
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#187
Freethrows+3.9#27
Improvement+0.4#107

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#320
First Shot+1.4#131
After Offensive Rebounds-6.0#362
Layups/Dunks+5.8#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#326
Freethrows-0.2#199
Improvement-1.0#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 0.8% 3.4% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 1.3% 3.3% 1.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 48.2% 36.4% 49.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 8.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 71 - 12
Quad 32 - 73 - 19
Quad 45 - 58 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 186   North Alabama L 57-73 40%     0 - 1 -20.3 -13.0 -9.2
  Nov 07, 2024 183   Jacksonville St. W 73-67 40%     1 - 1 +1.7 +6.2 -3.9
  Nov 11, 2024 338   LIU Brooklyn L 54-63 76%     1 - 2 -23.2 -15.5 -9.3
  Nov 15, 2024 141   Belmont L 71-79 30%     1 - 3 -9.6 +2.5 -12.9
  Nov 21, 2024 102   @ California L 60-75 8%    
  Nov 24, 2024 359   Mercyhurst W 67-57 84%    
  Nov 27, 2024 305   Sacramento St. W 63-59 65%    
  Nov 30, 2024 184   @ Wright St. L 68-77 21%    
  Dec 02, 2024 228   @ Miami (OH) L 63-70 27%    
  Dec 07, 2024 302   Stony Brook W 67-66 52%    
  Dec 16, 2024 148   @ Northern Colorado L 63-74 16%    
  Dec 21, 2024 42   @ Boise St. L 55-76 3%    
  Dec 31, 2024 89   UNLV L 61-71 19%    
  Jan 04, 2025 182   Wyoming L 65-68 41%    
  Jan 07, 2025 63   @ San Diego St. L 53-72 5%    
  Jan 11, 2025 250   San Jose St. W 65-64 53%    
  Jan 14, 2025 40   @ Nevada L 54-75 3%    
  Jan 17, 2025 255   @ Fresno St. L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 22, 2025 63   San Diego St. L 56-69 14%    
  Jan 25, 2025 45   Utah St. L 65-79 11%    
  Jan 28, 2025 101   @ Colorado St. L 57-72 10%    
  Feb 01, 2025 250   @ San Jose St. L 62-67 33%    
  Feb 04, 2025 40   Nevada L 57-72 9%    
  Feb 08, 2025 64   New Mexico L 66-78 14%    
  Feb 11, 2025 89   @ UNLV L 58-74 9%    
  Feb 18, 2025 182   @ Wyoming L 62-71 23%    
  Feb 22, 2025 255   Fresno St. W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 25, 2025 101   Colorado St. L 60-69 23%    
  Mar 01, 2025 64   @ New Mexico L 63-81 6%    
  Mar 04, 2025 42   Boise St. L 58-73 10%    
  Mar 08, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 62-82 4%    
Projected Record 7 - 24 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.9 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 11.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 6.1 7.0 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 20.0 9th
10th 0.4 4.7 10.2 8.4 3.4 0.6 0.1 27.8 10th
11th 4.3 10.3 11.9 6.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 34.9 11th
Total 4.3 10.7 16.6 18.4 16.8 13.1 8.8 5.3 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 14.0 0.0 0.3
10-10 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.8
9-11 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 1.6
8-12 3.1% 3.1
7-13 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.3
6-14 8.8% 8.8
5-15 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.1
4-16 16.8% 16.8
3-17 18.4% 18.4
2-18 16.6% 16.6
1-19 10.7% 10.7
0-20 4.3% 4.3
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%