Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#141
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#159
Pace61.2#346
Improvement+2.0#105

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#256
First Shot-3.6#282
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#144
Layup/Dunks-1.7#242
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#246
Freethrows+0.4#151
Improvement+0.4#163

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#69
First Shot+3.6#72
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#136
Layups/Dunks-0.2#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#109
Freethrows+3.0#23
Improvement+1.5#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.9% 13.4% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 10.7% 15.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.9% 13.4% 8.4%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Home) - 71.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 35 - 35 - 8
Quad 413 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 171   Miami (OH) L 63-77 66%     0 - 1 -17.0 -13.5 -3.2
  Nov 10, 2024 7   @ Wisconsin L 56-87 4%     0 - 2 -9.7 -8.8 -1.2
  Nov 19, 2024 231   Queens W 65-53 76%     1 - 2 +5.6 -7.8 +14.3
  Nov 24, 2024 216   William & Mary W 79-76 74%     2 - 2 -2.5 +5.7 -8.1
  Nov 27, 2024 160   Sam Houston St. W 66-63 54%     3 - 2 +3.1 -3.0 +6.3
  Nov 29, 2024 239   Colgate W 72-50 70%     4 - 2 +17.7 +8.4 +13.5
  Nov 30, 2024 116   @ UNC Wilmington L 61-76 34%     4 - 3 -9.6 -1.7 -10.2
  Dec 14, 2024 96   High Point L 59-65 35%     4 - 4 -1.0 -17.1 +16.2
  Dec 18, 2024 289   @ Louisiana L 62-68 71%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -10.5 -7.9 -3.0
  Dec 20, 2024 71   @ North Texas L 64-68 19%     4 - 6 +6.5 +14.3 -8.8
  Jan 02, 2025 118   Troy L 61-69 54%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -7.8 -3.0 -5.8
  Jan 04, 2025 202   Texas St. W 72-61 71%     5 - 7 1 - 2 +6.2 +2.4 +5.0
  Jan 08, 2025 312   Coastal Carolina W 74-51 88%     6 - 7 2 - 2 +11.4 +10.6 +5.7
  Jan 11, 2025 138   James Madison W 86-66 59%     7 - 7 3 - 2 +18.7 +8.8 +9.4
  Jan 16, 2025 286   @ Old Dominion W 62-43 70%     8 - 7 4 - 2 +14.6 +1.2 +17.9
  Jan 18, 2025 138   @ James Madison W 58-50 40%     9 - 7 5 - 2 +11.8 -5.8 +18.8
  Jan 23, 2025 97   @ Arkansas St. L 55-65 27%     9 - 8 5 - 3 -2.5 -8.8 +5.6
  Jan 25, 2025 336   @ Louisiana Monroe W 66-58 83%     10 - 8 6 - 3 -0.9 -4.4 +4.1
  Jan 29, 2025 286   Old Dominion L 77-78 84%     10 - 9 6 - 4 -10.5 +3.0 -13.5
  Feb 01, 2025 252   Georgia St. W 80-76 80%     11 - 9 7 - 4 -3.6 +2.2 -5.8
  Feb 05, 2025 280   Southern Miss W 60-58 83%     12 - 9 8 - 4 -7.1 -11.6 +4.6
  Feb 08, 2025 172   @ Ohio W 72-59 47%     13 - 9 +15.0 +7.3 +9.2
  Feb 13, 2025 312   @ Coastal Carolina W 64-46 77%     14 - 9 9 - 4 +11.5 +0.8 +14.5
  Feb 15, 2025 252   @ Georgia St. L 65-70 64%     14 - 10 9 - 5 -7.5 -3.7 -4.4
  Feb 20, 2025 248   Georgia Southern W 79-74 OT 79%     15 - 10 10 - 5 -2.4 -2.3 -0.3
  Feb 22, 2025 190   Marshall W 69-64 71%    
  Feb 25, 2025 248   @ Georgia Southern W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 28, 2025 190   @ Marshall W 67-66 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 10.4 10.7 1st
2nd 3.7 10.1 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 12.2 2.5 15.0 3rd
4th 4.6 17.9 22.4 4th
5th 0.0 18.2 7.3 25.5 5th
6th 6.7 5.9 12.5 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 6.7 28.9 41.5 23.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 45.1% 10.4    0.2 1.4 3.7 3.8 1.3
12-6 0.9% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 10.7% 10.7 0.2 1.4 3.8 3.9 1.5



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 23.0% 18.2% 18.2% 13.4 0.3 2.1 1.7 0.1 18.8
12-6 41.5% 13.0% 13.0% 14.0 0.0 1.2 3.0 1.2 0.0 36.1
11-7 28.9% 7.0% 7.0% 14.3 0.1 1.1 0.8 0.0 26.9
10-8 6.7% 5.1% 5.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.4
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 13.9 0.3 3.4 5.9 2.3 0.1 88.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.2% 100.0% 13.4 6.0 49.5 41.6 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.0%
Lose Out 1.7%