Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#265
Expected Predictive Rating-8.6#308
Pace71.5#103
Improvement+0.1#178

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#220
First Shot+2.3#116
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#354
Layup/Dunks+0.5#164
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#110
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#141
Freethrows-0.6#219
Improvement+1.4#77

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#296
First Shot-4.4#312
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#157
Layups/Dunks-3.0#284
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#181
Freethrows-0.6#232
Improvement-1.3#284
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.4% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 22.6% 34.8% 15.5%
.500 or above in Conference 50.1% 57.5% 45.8%
Conference Champion 2.8% 3.9% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 4.4% 7.6%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.1%
First Round2.2% 3.0% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Home) - 36.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 410 - 912 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 282   @ Southern Miss L 68-77 41%     0 - 1 -12.4 -8.8 -3.1
  Nov 08, 2024 124   Davidson L 85-91 31%     0 - 2 -6.7 +2.7 -8.9
  Nov 16, 2024 14   @ Michigan St. L 72-86 2%     0 - 3 +4.3 +7.9 -3.4
  Nov 19, 2024 314   Niagara W 76-68 72%     1 - 3 -3.7 +4.8 -7.6
  Nov 23, 2024 333   @ Bellarmine L 68-80 57%     1 - 4 -19.4 -9.6 -10.2
  Nov 29, 2024 208   Weber St. L 70-73 37%     1 - 5 -5.4 -4.9 -0.5
  Nov 30, 2024 199   New Mexico St. W 61-60 35%     2 - 5 -0.8 -9.0 +8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 349   Morgan St. W 102-81 81%     3 - 5 +5.8 +11.4 -7.3
  Dec 14, 2024 271   @ UMKC L 77-85 39%     3 - 6 -10.9 +7.4 -18.7
  Dec 21, 2024 143   St. Thomas L 75-79 37%    
  Jan 03, 2025 146   Akron L 79-82 38%    
  Jan 07, 2025 295   @ Western Michigan L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 11, 2025 285   @ Ball St. L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 14, 2025 324   Buffalo W 79-73 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 317   Eastern Michigan W 78-72 71%    
  Jan 21, 2025 195   @ Miami (OH) L 70-77 26%    
  Jan 24, 2025 206   Toledo L 80-81 48%    
  Jan 28, 2025 115   @ Kent St. L 63-75 14%    
  Feb 01, 2025 219   @ Central Michigan L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 04, 2025 344   Northern Illinois W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 11, 2025 161   Ohio L 77-80 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 324   @ Buffalo W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 18, 2025 115   Kent St. L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 22, 2025 206   @ Toledo L 78-84 29%    
  Feb 25, 2025 317   @ Eastern Michigan W 76-75 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 285   Ball St. W 76-72 64%    
  Mar 04, 2025 344   @ Northern Illinois W 76-73 59%    
  Mar 07, 2025 295   Western Michigan W 77-73 65%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.2 3.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.9 3.7 0.4 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 5.5 4.0 0.5 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.3 3.7 0.7 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.1 0.7 0.0 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.1 0.7 0.0 5.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.9 6.9 10.0 12.5 13.8 14.0 12.7 9.5 6.7 3.9 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 97.7% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.5% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 79.9% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 44.0% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.1% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 22.7% 22.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 21.2% 21.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.9% 17.6% 17.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 2.0% 13.0% 13.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.8
13-5 3.9% 8.8% 8.8% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.5
12-6 6.7% 6.3% 6.3% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 6.3
11-7 9.5% 5.1% 5.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.0
10-8 12.7% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.4 12.2
9-9 14.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 13.7
8-10 13.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 13.6
7-11 12.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.5
6-12 10.0% 10.0
5-13 6.9% 6.9
4-14 3.9% 3.9
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 97.3 0.0%