Chicago St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.2#359
Expected Predictive Rating-15.5#355
Pace72.1#94
Improvement-0.8#239

Offense
Total Offense-9.3#360
First Shot-7.8#351
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#270
Layup/Dunks-5.2#336
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#150
Freethrows-2.3#311
Improvement-1.0#263

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#323
First Shot-1.1#203
After Offensive Rebounds-3.8#357
Layups/Dunks-1.3#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#41
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#160
Freethrows-2.4#323
Improvement+0.1#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 5.2% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 21.2% 32.5% 21.0%
Conference Champion 1.2% 2.5% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 34.6% 25.2% 34.8%
First Four2.2% 5.2% 2.2%
First Round0.7% 2.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 1.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 70 - 13
Quad 46 - 136 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 106   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-79 3%     0 - 1 +0.2 +0.5 +0.1
  Nov 09, 2024 193   Youngstown St. L 60-80 18%     0 - 2 -24.4 -14.5 -9.2
  Nov 12, 2024 32   @ Texas L 58-105 1%     0 - 3 -31.6 -12.0 -15.2
  Nov 16, 2024 59   @ San Francisco L 37-82 2%     0 - 4 -32.7 -28.7 -2.1
  Nov 19, 2024 219   Eastern Kentucky L 66-86 21%     0 - 5 -25.8 -16.4 -7.9
  Nov 22, 2024 150   @ Indiana St. L 61-97 6%     0 - 6 -32.6 -15.4 -15.8
  Nov 25, 2024 203   Radford L 48-63 13%     0 - 7 -17.0 -21.4 +2.6
  Nov 26, 2024 151   Drexel L 71-83 9%     0 - 8 -11.6 +4.8 -17.4
  Nov 30, 2024 36   @ Wisconsin L 53-74 1%     0 - 9 -5.8 -11.8 +4.7
  Dec 02, 2024 142   @ St. Thomas L 76-98 6%     0 - 10 -18.2 -6.3 -9.2
  Dec 08, 2024 145   @ Saint Louis L 62-85 6%     0 - 11 -19.3 -9.7 -10.7
  Dec 15, 2024 239   @ Mercer L 63-75 12%     0 - 12 -13.3 -10.0 -3.3
  Dec 19, 2024 102   @ Grand Canyon L 64-86 2%    
  Dec 21, 2024 160   @ Cal St. Northridge L 68-85 5%    
  Dec 29, 2024 18   @ Illinois L 59-91 0.1%   
  Jan 03, 2025 310   @ Wagner L 56-65 20%    
  Jan 05, 2025 342   @ LIU Brooklyn L 68-74 29%    
  Jan 12, 2025 320   Stonehill L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 18, 2025 331   Le Moyne L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 20, 2025 332   Fairleigh Dickinson L 78-79 47%    
  Jan 24, 2025 320   @ Stonehill L 65-73 23%    
  Jan 26, 2025 223   @ Central Connecticut St. L 59-73 10%    
  Feb 01, 2025 342   LIU Brooklyn W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 06, 2025 358   Mercyhurst W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 336   St. Francis (PA) L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 13, 2025 332   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 75-82 26%    
  Feb 15, 2025 331   @ Le Moyne L 68-75 26%    
  Feb 20, 2025 223   Central Connecticut St. L 62-70 23%    
  Feb 22, 2025 310   Wagner L 59-62 39%    
  Feb 27, 2025 358   @ Mercyhurst L 66-69 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 336   @ St. Francis (PA) L 69-75 29%    
Projected Record 6 - 25 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.2 2.2 0.3 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.3 3.5 0.3 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.7 5.2 0.7 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 6.0 7.0 1.4 0.0 16.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 7.3 7.5 1.9 0.1 19.7 8th
9th 0.5 2.5 5.4 7.6 5.7 1.5 0.1 23.2 9th
Total 0.5 2.5 5.8 10.3 14.7 16.1 15.7 13.3 9.5 6.2 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 85.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-4 64.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 32.0% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.1% 21.9% 21.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.6% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.1 0.6
11-5 1.6% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.1 1.5
10-6 3.1% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.3 2.8
9-7 6.2% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.3 5.8
8-8 9.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.4 9.1
7-9 13.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 13.0
6-10 15.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.4 15.3
5-11 16.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 15.9
4-12 14.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.6
3-13 10.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.3
2-14 5.8% 5.8
1-15 2.5% 2.5
0-16 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 16.0 2.2 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%