Chicago St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.1#357
Expected Predictive Rating-14.7#349
Pace71.4#104
Improvement+3.2#47

Offense
Total Offense-10.7#361
First Shot-8.7#358
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#298
Layup/Dunks-4.5#331
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#182
Freethrows-3.2#347
Improvement+0.4#156

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#274
First Shot-1.0#209
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#340
Layups/Dunks-2.5#279
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#45
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#123
Freethrows-1.8#302
Improvement+2.8#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.1% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 28.7% 40.8% 18.0%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.6% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 22.8% 12.4% 32.0%
First Four2.5% 3.1% 2.0%
First Round0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 47.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 30 - 50 - 13
Quad 47 - 127 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 136   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-79 5%     0 - 1 -2.6 -2.5 +0.3
  Nov 09, 2024 208   Youngstown St. L 60-80 20%     0 - 2 -25.1 -14.4 -9.9
  Nov 12, 2024 38   @ Texas L 58-105 1%     0 - 3 -32.2 -13.2 -14.6
  Nov 16, 2024 75   @ San Francisco L 37-82 2%     0 - 4 -34.9 -32.5 -0.5
  Nov 19, 2024 248   Eastern Kentucky L 66-86 27%     0 - 5 -27.6 -17.6 -8.4
  Nov 22, 2024 213   @ Indiana St. L 61-97 10%     0 - 6 -36.0 -16.5 -18.1
  Nov 25, 2024 204   Radford L 48-63 13%     0 - 7 -17.1 -21.2 +2.3
  Nov 26, 2024 193   Drexel L 71-83 12%     0 - 8 -13.4 +4.7 -19.1
  Nov 30, 2024 18   @ Wisconsin L 53-74 1%     0 - 9 -2.4 -9.5 +5.8
  Dec 02, 2024 125   @ St. Thomas L 76-98 5%     0 - 10 -16.8 -6.8 -7.4
  Dec 08, 2024 102   @ Saint Louis L 62-85 4%     0 - 11 -16.2 -6.1 -11.2
  Dec 15, 2024 233   @ Mercer L 63-75 12%     0 - 12 -13.3 -8.9 -4.5
  Dec 19, 2024 83   @ Grand Canyon L 51-74 2%     0 - 13 -13.5 -19.6 +7.9
  Dec 21, 2024 133   @ Cal St. Northridge L 57-81 5%     0 - 14 -19.4 -18.8 +1.9
  Dec 29, 2024 9   @ Illinois L 64-117 0.4%    0 - 15 -31.6 -5.1 -20.6
  Jan 03, 2025 335   @ Wagner W 64-52 30%     1 - 15 1 - 0 +3.4 +1.9 +3.5
  Jan 05, 2025 314   @ LIU Brooklyn L 39-53 22%     1 - 16 1 - 1 -19.9 -27.8 +6.0
  Jan 12, 2025 312   Stonehill L 52-68 40%     1 - 17 1 - 2 -27.4 -20.5 -8.8
  Jan 18, 2025 350   Le Moyne W 88-72 55%     2 - 17 2 - 2 +0.6 +4.4 -4.4
  Jan 20, 2025 328   Fairleigh Dickinson L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 24, 2025 312   @ Stonehill L 64-72 21%    
  Jan 26, 2025 230   @ Central Connecticut St. L 58-71 11%    
  Feb 01, 2025 314   LIU Brooklyn L 64-67 42%    
  Feb 06, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 68-65 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 345   St. Francis (PA) W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 13, 2025 328   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 71-77 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 350   @ Le Moyne L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 20, 2025 230   Central Connecticut St. L 61-68 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 335   Wagner W 60-59 52%    
  Feb 27, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst L 65-67 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 345   @ St. Francis (PA) L 67-72 31%    
Projected Record 6 - 25 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 3.8 1.8 0.2 7.3 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 7.1 3.3 0.2 12.8 4th
5th 1.3 8.6 5.2 0.4 0.0 15.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 7.8 7.8 0.7 16.9 6th
7th 0.5 5.0 9.0 1.6 0.0 16.1 7th
8th 0.5 3.8 8.0 2.5 0.0 14.8 8th
9th 0.7 3.5 5.5 2.5 0.1 12.2 9th
Total 0.7 4.0 9.8 16.1 20.6 20.1 14.6 8.3 3.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-4 59.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 32.9% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 7.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.3% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-5 1.5% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.1 1.3
10-6 3.9% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.3 3.7
9-7 8.3% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.4 8.0
8-8 14.6% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.5 14.1
7-9 20.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.6 19.6
6-10 20.6% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.5 20.2
5-11 16.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 16.0
4-12 9.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.7
3-13 4.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.0
2-14 0.7% 0.7
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 16.0 2.5 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%