Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#194
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#260
Pace69.2#183
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#265
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#138
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 4.3% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.4 14.7
.500 or above 31.5% 44.5% 18.5%
.500 or above in Conference 42.1% 50.7% 33.5%
Conference Champion 2.9% 4.1% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 11.7% 7.1% 16.3%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round3.3% 4.3% 2.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Home) - 50.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 85 - 13
Quad 47 - 412 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 93   @ Butler L 65-72 16%     0 - 1 +1.6 -1.5 +2.8
  Nov 16, 2024 142   Tulsa L 74-75 50%    
  Nov 19, 2024 154   Texas Arlington W 77-76 52%    
  Nov 24, 2024 124   High Point L 72-77 31%    
  Dec 01, 2024 246   @ Oral Roberts L 71-72 48%    
  Dec 07, 2024 209   Indiana St. W 75-71 64%    
  Dec 14, 2024 76   @ Washington St. L 67-79 13%    
  Dec 22, 2024 118   UC Santa Barbara L 73-75 43%    
  Dec 29, 2024 248   @ Evansville L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 01, 2025 280   Valparaiso W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 04, 2025 91   @ Bradley L 64-75 18%    
  Jan 07, 2025 161   Illinois-Chicago W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 11, 2025 153   @ Southern Illinois L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 15, 2025 153   Southern Illinois W 69-68 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 175   @ Illinois St. L 65-69 34%    
  Jan 21, 2025 125   @ Northern Iowa L 65-73 24%    
  Jan 25, 2025 98   Drake L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 29, 2025 209   @ Indiana St. L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 136   Murray St. L 67-68 51%    
  Feb 05, 2025 125   Northern Iowa L 68-70 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 150   @ Belmont L 71-77 32%    
  Feb 12, 2025 248   Evansville W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 16, 2025 161   @ Illinois-Chicago L 71-76 32%    
  Feb 19, 2025 280   @ Valparaiso W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 175   Illinois St. W 68-66 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 150   Belmont W 75-74 51%    
  Mar 02, 2025 98   @ Drake L 64-74 21%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.1 2.9 1st
2nd 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.1 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 2.3 2.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 7.3 3rd
4th 0.3 2.3 4.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.3 2.4 3.8 1.6 0.3 8.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 4.4 1.7 0.2 8.4 6th
7th 0.4 2.0 4.7 3.4 0.2 0.1 10.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 4.2 3.1 0.5 10.1 8th
9th 0.3 2.2 3.3 3.8 0.4 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.6 2.9 0.9 10.3 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 2.8 3.3 2.4 0.9 0.0 10.9 11th
12th 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.3 7.4 12th
Total 0.3 0.5 1.5 3.4 5.2 7.0 8.8 9.7 11.2 10.4 11.1 8.3 8.4 5.4 3.9 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 84.0% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
16-4 51.1% 0.8    0.5 0.2 0.0
15-5 24.1% 0.6    0.2 0.4 0.1
14-6 12.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 50.9% 50.9% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.4% 22.8% 4.7% 18.1% 11.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 19.0%
17-3 0.5% 30.9% 30.9% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
16-4 1.5% 16.0% 16.0% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2
15-5 2.5% 17.7% 17.7% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.1
14-6 3.9% 7.9% 7.9% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.6
13-7 5.4% 6.6% 6.6% 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.1
12-8 8.4% 6.0% 6.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 7.9
11-9 8.3% 3.4% 3.4% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.0
10-10 11.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.9
9-11 10.4% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.1 0.5 9.8
8-12 11.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.5 0.1 0.1 11.1
7-13 9.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.7
6-14 8.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.8
5-15 7.0% 7.0
4-16 5.2% 5.2
3-17 3.4% 3.4
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.4% 3.3% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 96.7 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%