Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#179
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#168
Pace65.5#254
Improvement-1.9#262

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#167
First Shot+1.3#137
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#244
Layup/Dunks+2.8#84
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#107
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#341
Freethrows+3.1#29
Improvement-1.8#281

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#218
First Shot+1.0#143
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#336
Layups/Dunks+3.8#50
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#69
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#303
Freethrows-1.1#269
Improvement-0.1#186
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.3% 49.2% 39.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 99.2% 99.6% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.8% 98.1%
Conference Champion 66.3% 73.0% 38.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.6% 2.1% 4.5%
First Round46.1% 48.1% 37.8%
Second Round1.4% 1.6% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Home) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 32 - 23 - 6
Quad 417 - 520 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 149   James Madison W 83-69 53%     1 - 0 +12.3 +10.4 +2.1
  Nov 12, 2024 194   @ William & Mary L 73-84 42%     1 - 1 -9.8 -4.6 -4.9
  Nov 16, 2024 254   @ Hampton W 67-58 57%     2 - 1 +6.3 +3.5 +4.2
  Nov 20, 2024 88   @ Stanford L 63-70 17%     2 - 2 +2.2 -0.8 +2.3
  Nov 22, 2024 85   @ Grand Canyon L 73-91 17%     2 - 3 -8.5 +5.6 -14.0
  Nov 25, 2024 228   @ UC Davis W 76-55 51%     3 - 3 +19.9 +7.6 +12.4
  Dec 01, 2024 320   @ Stony Brook W 77-66 70%     4 - 3 +4.5 +6.8 -1.3
  Dec 09, 2024 175   Hofstra L 67-80 60%     4 - 4 -16.4 +3.6 -21.1
  Dec 11, 2024 22   @ Baylor L 69-94 5%     4 - 5 -7.1 +3.3 -10.4
  Dec 15, 2024 234   @ Northern Kentucky L 62-71 52%     4 - 6 -10.5 -5.3 -5.7
  Dec 19, 2024 299   Alabama St. W 71-54 74%     5 - 6 +9.3 -2.5 +12.9
  Dec 20, 2024 326   Grambling St. W 76-70 80%     6 - 6 -4.0 +7.5 -10.9
  Dec 29, 2024 105   @ High Point W 77-74 24%     7 - 6 +9.4 +11.1 -1.4
  Dec 31, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 52-67 3%     7 - 7 +6.5 -0.2 +4.2
  Jan 04, 2025 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 81-59 94%     8 - 7 1 - 0 +3.9 +2.7 +2.2
  Jan 06, 2025 323   @ Delaware St. W 73-64 71%     9 - 7 2 - 0 +2.4 -6.8 +8.7
  Jan 11, 2025 362   Coppin St. W 92-69 95%     10 - 7 3 - 0 +3.2 +10.8 -8.2
  Jan 13, 2025 333   @ Morgan St. L 74-78 77%     10 - 8 3 - 1 -12.7 -3.4 -9.4
  Jan 25, 2025 281   Howard W 81-72 81%    
  Feb 01, 2025 244   South Carolina St. W 75-69 73%    
  Feb 03, 2025 305   NC Central W 76-66 83%    
  Feb 15, 2025 361   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 77-65 86%    
  Feb 17, 2025 323   Delaware St. W 78-67 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 362   @ Coppin St. W 75-62 89%    
  Feb 24, 2025 333   Morgan St. W 84-71 89%    
  Mar 01, 2025 244   @ South Carolina St. W 73-72 52%    
  Mar 03, 2025 305   @ NC Central W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 06, 2025 281   @ Howard W 78-75 60%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.4 11.4 23.8 21.1 8.6 66.3 1st
2nd 0.9 6.8 9.9 3.5 0.0 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.3 4.4 0.8 8.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.1 2.7 4th
5th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.9 12.7 22.0 27.3 21.2 8.6 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 8.6    8.6
12-2 99.8% 21.1    20.0 1.2
11-3 87.1% 23.8    16.6 7.0 0.2
10-4 51.5% 11.4    3.5 6.1 1.7 0.1
9-5 10.9% 1.4    0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 66.3% 66.3 48.7 14.7 2.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 8.6% 60.7% 60.7% 13.2 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.5 0.1 3.4
12-2 21.2% 55.8% 55.8% 14.3 0.0 1.1 5.8 4.8 0.1 9.4
11-3 27.3% 50.4% 50.4% 14.9 0.1 2.9 8.7 2.0 13.5
10-4 22.0% 43.9% 43.9% 15.3 0.0 0.7 5.1 3.9 12.4
9-5 12.7% 36.3% 36.3% 15.6 0.1 1.7 2.8 8.1
8-6 5.9% 28.8% 28.8% 15.8 0.3 1.4 4.2
7-7 1.8% 25.1% 25.1% 15.9 0.0 0.4 1.3
6-8 0.4% 28.6% 28.6% 16.0 0.1 0.3
5-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 47.3% 47.3% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.8 4.0 10.9 20.7 10.8 52.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.2% 100.0% 13.2 0.2 14.8 54.5 29.6 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%