North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#182
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#172
Pace69.0#180
Improvement-0.2#186

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#175
First Shot+1.1#145
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#259
Layup/Dunks+2.3#102
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
Freethrows-3.8#353
Improvement-0.6#239

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#200
First Shot-2.9#274
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#57
Layups/Dunks-3.2#300
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#207
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#219
Freethrows+1.1#112
Improvement+0.5#144
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.9% 14.5% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 89.8% 96.1% 86.1%
.500 or above in Conference 86.8% 90.7% 84.6%
Conference Champion 12.9% 16.2% 11.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round11.8% 14.4% 10.2%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 36.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 64 - 8
Quad 415 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 271   @ Air Force W 73-57 57%     1 - 0 +13.2 +7.5 +7.5
  Nov 11, 2024 324   Tennessee Martin W 87-69 85%     2 - 0 +5.7 +8.4 -2.8
  Nov 15, 2024 112   Samford L 96-97 OT 44%     2 - 1 -0.6 +0.0 -0.4
  Nov 18, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 69-102 1%     2 - 2 -7.2 +1.3 -6.6
  Nov 23, 2024 329   Louisiana Monroe W 74-62 80%     3 - 2 +2.1 +4.8 -1.6
  Nov 24, 2024 292   @ Northwestern St. L 58-71 61%     3 - 3 -16.9 -9.5 -8.8
  Dec 01, 2024 155   @ Wofford L 54-74 35%     3 - 4 -17.0 -17.4 -0.3
  Dec 04, 2024 328   Tennessee Tech W 82-59 86%     4 - 4 +10.5 +7.4 +4.6
  Dec 11, 2024 159   @ East Carolina W 74-67 35%     5 - 4 +9.8 +3.3 +6.6
  Dec 19, 2024 301   Charleston Southern W 86-69 82%     6 - 4 +6.3 +10.9 -4.0
  Dec 22, 2024 165   @ Loyola Marymount L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 02, 2025 343   Bellarmine W 81-67 90%    
  Jan 04, 2025 220   Eastern Kentucky W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 09, 2025 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 344   @ Stetson W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 16, 2025 205   @ Jacksonville L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 18, 2025 188   @ North Florida L 79-82 40%    
  Jan 23, 2025 107   Lipscomb L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 25, 2025 273   Austin Peay W 70-62 77%    
  Jan 29, 2025 270   @ Queens W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 339   Central Arkansas W 78-65 89%    
  Feb 05, 2025 273   @ Austin Peay W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 341   @ West Georgia W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 13, 2025 188   North Florida W 82-79 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 205   Jacksonville W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 18, 2025 341   West Georgia W 79-66 88%    
  Feb 20, 2025 107   @ Lipscomb L 68-76 22%    
  Feb 24, 2025 339   @ Central Arkansas W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 26, 2025 270   Queens W 81-73 75%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 4.2 2.6 1.0 0.1 12.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.5 5.4 1.7 0.2 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.2 7.4 5.3 1.2 0.1 17.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.7 4.6 0.8 0.0 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.6 4.2 0.7 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.8 6.5 9.7 12.6 15.2 15.5 13.9 10.2 6.0 2.8 1.0 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
16-2 92.9% 2.6    2.1 0.5 0.0
15-3 70.0% 4.2    2.4 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 34.9% 3.5    1.2 1.6 0.6 0.1
13-5 9.2% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.9% 12.9 7.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 34.0% 34.0% 12.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6
16-2 2.8% 31.2% 31.2% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.9
15-3 6.0% 26.7% 26.7% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 4.4
14-4 10.2% 20.6% 20.6% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 8.1
13-5 13.9% 16.1% 16.1% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.1 11.6
12-6 15.5% 12.1% 12.1% 14.7 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.2 13.6
11-7 15.2% 9.2% 9.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 13.8
10-8 12.6% 6.9% 6.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 11.7
9-9 9.7% 3.6% 3.6% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.3
8-10 6.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.3
7-11 3.8% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.7
6-12 1.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.0 4.3 1.3 88.1 0.0%