UC San Diego
Big West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#132
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#111
Pace64.2#325
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#136
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#155
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 12.4% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.6 13.1
.500 or above 76.8% 83.5% 64.7%
.500 or above in Conference 78.7% 82.4% 72.2%
Conference Champion 11.0% 13.0% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.9% 2.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round10.8% 12.3% 8.0%
Second Round1.7% 2.0% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Home) - 64.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 56 - 10
Quad 411 - 317 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 55   @ San Diego St. L 58-63 16%     0 - 1 +7.2 -2.3 +9.2
  Nov 09, 2024 229   Pepperdine W 94-76 78%     1 - 1 +11.7 +14.2 -3.0
  Nov 12, 2024 296   Sacramento St. W 64-54 86%     2 - 1 +0.1 -3.0 +4.3
  Nov 16, 2024 152   Seattle W 70-66 64%    
  Nov 21, 2024 127   La Salle L 68-69 47%    
  Dec 05, 2024 117   @ UC Santa Barbara L 71-75 35%    
  Dec 07, 2024 261   Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-62 81%    
  Dec 15, 2024 282   @ Idaho W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 17, 2024 43   @ Utah St. L 67-79 14%    
  Dec 21, 2024 277   @ San Diego W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 04, 2025 262   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 09, 2025 333   Cal Poly W 80-65 90%    
  Jan 11, 2025 60   UC Irvine L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 16, 2025 250   @ Long Beach St. W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 155   @ UC Riverside L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 23, 2025 117   UC Santa Barbara W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 202   Cal St. Northridge W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 31, 2025 175   @ Hawaii L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 06, 2025 155   UC Riverside W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 60   @ UC Irvine L 63-73 19%    
  Feb 13, 2025 261   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 168   UC Davis W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 333   @ Cal Poly W 77-68 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 175   Hawaii W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 27, 2025 202   @ Cal St. Northridge W 74-73 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 262   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-62 80%    
  Mar 06, 2025 250   Long Beach St. W 78-69 78%    
  Mar 08, 2025 168   @ UC Davis L 70-71 46%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.0 2.8 1.9 0.8 0.1 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.4 5.1 5.6 3.4 1.2 0.1 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.7 6.0 4.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.8 5.7 3.2 0.7 0.1 14.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.7 4.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.1 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 2.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.1 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.5 5.7 7.5 9.7 11.1 12.2 12.1 11.0 9.0 6.6 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
18-2 93.7% 1.9    1.6 0.3 0.0
17-3 70.6% 2.8    1.8 0.9 0.0
16-4 45.0% 3.0    1.6 1.2 0.2
15-5 18.0% 1.6    0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.9% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 6.5 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 72.7% 54.5% 18.2% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.0%
19-1 0.8% 51.5% 44.6% 6.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 12.4%
18-2 2.1% 46.1% 44.9% 1.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 2.3%
17-3 3.9% 34.4% 34.2% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.6 0.3%
16-4 6.6% 30.3% 30.2% 0.1% 12.5 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.6 0.1%
15-5 9.0% 21.5% 21.5% 12.9 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 7.1
14-6 11.0% 15.2% 15.2% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 9.4
13-7 12.1% 9.4% 9.4% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 11.0
12-8 12.2% 4.5% 4.5% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.7
11-9 11.1% 3.5% 3.5% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.7
10-10 9.7% 2.1% 2.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.5
9-11 7.5% 1.2% 1.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4
8-12 5.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 5.7
7-13 3.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.5
6-14 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.3
5-15 1.3% 1.3
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 10.8% 10.7% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.6 3.9 2.0 0.5 0.1 89.2 0.1%