Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#45
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#73
Pace75.2#55
Improvement-1.8#333

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#23
First Shot+3.8#77
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#26
Layup/Dunks+6.8#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#307
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#301
Freethrows+3.7#35
Improvement-0.6#275

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#101
First Shot+1.6#128
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#118
Layups/Dunks+8.0#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#327
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#346
Freethrows+3.0#47
Improvement-1.2#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.5% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 3.3% 5.4% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 7.3% 11.8% 3.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.6% 46.0% 26.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.4% 31.1% 14.0%
Average Seed 8.7 8.3 9.3
.500 or above 96.7% 99.0% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 95.4% 90.2%
Conference Champion 22.7% 28.0% 18.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four5.2% 6.4% 4.1%
First Round33.1% 42.9% 24.9%
Second Round17.7% 24.2% 12.3%
Sweet Sixteen6.5% 9.4% 4.1%
Elite Eight2.7% 4.0% 1.6%
Final Four1.0% 1.5% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Iowa (Neutral) - 45.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 36 - 7
Quad 37 - 113 - 8
Quad 410 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 349   Alcorn St. W 101-46 98%     1 - 0 +39.1 +19.5 +19.7
  Nov 09, 2024 142   Charlotte W 103-74 86%     2 - 0 +27.4 +29.8 -2.3
  Nov 18, 2024 213   Montana W 95-83 92%     3 - 0 +6.5 +11.6 -5.9
  Nov 22, 2024 41   Iowa L 84-85 46%    
  Nov 28, 2024 115   St. Bonaventure W 78-71 73%    
  Dec 04, 2024 182   Wyoming W 84-70 90%    
  Dec 07, 2024 304   Utah Tech W 91-70 97%    
  Dec 14, 2024 120   South Florida W 82-72 82%    
  Dec 17, 2024 159   UC San Diego W 82-69 88%    
  Dec 22, 2024 43   @ St. Mary's L 73-77 36%    
  Dec 28, 2024 63   @ San Diego St. L 72-74 44%    
  Dec 31, 2024 40   @ Nevada L 73-77 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 255   Fresno St. W 90-72 94%    
  Jan 07, 2025 250   @ San Jose St. W 80-68 85%    
  Jan 11, 2025 42   Boise St. W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 15, 2025 89   @ UNLV W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 22, 2025 40   Nevada W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 292   @ Air Force W 79-65 89%    
  Jan 29, 2025 89   UNLV W 80-73 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 64   New Mexico W 87-82 65%    
  Feb 04, 2025 182   @ Wyoming W 81-73 76%    
  Feb 07, 2025 255   @ Fresno St. W 87-75 84%    
  Feb 11, 2025 101   Colorado St. W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 16, 2025 64   @ New Mexico L 84-85 45%    
  Feb 19, 2025 250   San Jose St. W 83-65 94%    
  Feb 22, 2025 63   San Diego St. W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 26, 2025 42   @ Boise St. L 74-78 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 101   @ Colorado St. W 76-74 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 292   Air Force W 82-62 96%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.3 6.9 4.9 2.2 0.6 22.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 3.8 7.0 5.7 1.9 0.2 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 4.5 6.9 3.6 0.6 0.0 16.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.2 5.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.7 4.3 1.7 0.2 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.9 2.7 1.0 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.4 5.7 8.1 10.5 12.7 13.9 13.2 11.7 8.8 5.1 2.2 0.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.0
18-2 96.0% 4.9    4.4 0.6 0.0
17-3 78.7% 6.9    4.7 2.1 0.1
16-4 45.5% 5.3    2.3 2.3 0.7 0.0
15-5 17.6% 2.3    0.6 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.7% 22.7 14.7 6.1 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 100.0% 56.2% 43.8% 2.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.2% 98.5% 50.5% 48.0% 4.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.0%
18-2 5.1% 93.1% 43.4% 49.7% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 87.9%
17-3 8.8% 82.7% 35.7% 47.0% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.0 1.5 73.1%
16-4 11.7% 65.6% 28.5% 37.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.2 0.1 4.0 51.9%
15-5 13.2% 44.2% 22.0% 22.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.6 0.3 7.4 28.5%
14-6 13.9% 25.5% 14.6% 10.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 0.4 10.3 12.8%
13-7 12.7% 15.8% 11.0% 4.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 10.7 5.4%
12-8 10.5% 8.8% 7.4% 1.4% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.5 1.5%
11-9 8.1% 5.7% 5.4% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.7 0.4%
10-10 5.7% 4.2% 4.1% 0.1% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.1%
9-11 3.4% 2.3% 2.3% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.1%
8-12 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
7-13 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.0
6-14 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 35.6% 18.0% 17.6% 8.7 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.6 3.3 4.4 6.0 9.7 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 64.4 21.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 50.0 36.5 11.5 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.4 25.9 37.0 14.8 18.5 3.7