Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#54
Expected Predictive Rating+17.0#19
Pace70.9#113
Improvement-4.2#341

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#33
First Shot+7.6#22
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#233
Layup/Dunks+8.4#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#297
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#223
Freethrows+2.7#41
Improvement-0.2#196

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#85
First Shot+3.6#71
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#213
Layups/Dunks+5.7#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#331
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#322
Freethrows+4.2#2
Improvement-4.0#347
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 4.9% 6.4% 1.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.1% 73.9% 58.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61.2% 66.6% 49.9%
Average Seed 9.1 8.9 9.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 46.6% 53.5% 31.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.7% 11.8% 14.5%
First Round62.0% 67.5% 49.5%
Second Round25.2% 28.1% 18.5%
Sweet Sixteen5.1% 6.1% 3.0%
Elite Eight1.6% 2.0% 0.8%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Home) - 69.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 2
Quad 26 - 411 - 5
Quad 35 - 116 - 7
Quad 49 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 328   Alcorn St. W 101-46 97%     1 - 0 +42.0 +22.9 +19.1
  Nov 09, 2024 224   Charlotte W 103-74 93%     2 - 0 +22.6 +26.9 -4.1
  Nov 18, 2024 226   Montana W 95-83 93%     3 - 0 +5.6 +12.3 -7.5
  Nov 22, 2024 52   Iowa W 77-69 49%     4 - 0 +18.6 -2.6 +20.5
  Nov 28, 2024 96   St. Bonaventure W 72-67 68%     5 - 0 +10.4 +4.0 +6.6
  Nov 29, 2024 65   North Texas W 61-57 57%     6 - 0 +12.4 +0.6 +12.3
  Dec 04, 2024 187   Wyoming W 70-67 90%     7 - 0 1 - 0 -0.9 +7.2 -7.6
  Dec 07, 2024 286   Utah Tech W 92-62 96%     8 - 0 +20.2 +10.7 +8.3
  Dec 14, 2024 154   South Florida W 88-67 87%     9 - 0 +18.9 +12.2 +6.4
  Dec 17, 2024 79   UC San Diego L 73-75 71%     9 - 1 +2.5 +0.0 +2.5
  Dec 22, 2024 35   @ St. Mary's W 75-68 31%     10 - 1 +22.4 +14.6 +8.2
  Dec 28, 2024 47   @ San Diego St. W 67-66 37%     11 - 1 2 - 0 +14.6 +4.9 +9.7
  Dec 31, 2024 69   @ Nevada W 69-64 48%     12 - 1 3 - 0 +15.8 +8.3 +8.0
  Jan 04, 2025 257   Fresno St. W 89-83 95%     13 - 1 4 - 0 -2.3 +5.2 -8.0
  Jan 07, 2025 159   @ San Jose St. W 85-78 75%     14 - 1 5 - 0 +10.1 +18.7 -8.0
  Jan 11, 2025 57   Boise St. W 81-79 62%     15 - 1 6 - 0 +9.1 +26.6 -17.1
  Jan 15, 2025 99   @ UNLV L 62-65 60%     15 - 2 6 - 1 +4.6 +1.9 +2.2
  Jan 22, 2025 69   Nevada W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 276   @ Air Force W 77-63 90%    
  Jan 29, 2025 99   UNLV W 77-69 79%    
  Feb 01, 2025 51   New Mexico W 81-79 58%    
  Feb 04, 2025 187   @ Wyoming W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 07, 2025 257   @ Fresno St. W 87-74 88%    
  Feb 11, 2025 78   Colorado St. W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 16, 2025 51   @ New Mexico L 78-81 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 159   San Jose St. W 82-69 89%    
  Feb 22, 2025 47   San Diego St. W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 57   @ Boise St. L 74-76 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 78   @ Colorado St. W 74-73 50%    
  Mar 08, 2025 276   Air Force W 79-60 97%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 8.5 16.5 13.2 5.9 1.4 46.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 7.8 11.6 4.3 0.4 24.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.3 7.9 2.0 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 4.4 1.3 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.1 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.1 10.5 18.0 22.1 20.9 13.6 5.9 1.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4
18-2 100.0% 5.9    5.8 0.1
17-3 97.2% 13.2    11.3 1.9 0.0
16-4 79.2% 16.5    9.6 6.3 0.6
15-5 38.5% 8.5    2.0 3.9 2.3 0.3 0.0
14-6 5.7% 1.0    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 46.6% 46.6 30.2 12.3 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.4% 99.3% 35.7% 63.6% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9%
18-2 5.9% 98.3% 34.6% 63.7% 6.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 97.4%
17-3 13.6% 93.2% 28.2% 65.0% 8.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 3.7 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.9 90.5%
16-4 20.9% 86.5% 26.1% 60.4% 9.1 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 6.1 5.0 1.5 0.0 2.8 81.7%
15-5 22.1% 72.0% 20.4% 51.6% 9.8 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.3 6.3 3.7 0.0 6.2 64.9%
14-6 18.0% 53.7% 13.9% 39.7% 10.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.0 4.0 0.1 8.4 46.2%
13-7 10.5% 39.4% 9.1% 30.3% 10.5 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.3 0.1 6.4 33.3%
12-8 5.1% 21.9% 6.5% 15.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.1 4.0 16.4%
11-9 1.8% 15.3% 4.9% 10.4% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.6 10.9%
10-10 0.5% 7.5% 3.8% 3.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.9%
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 69.1% 20.3% 48.8% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.8 5.9 10.6 16.0 18.4 13.0 0.3 30.9 61.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 3.5 3.9 21.6 25.5 27.5 13.7 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 5.6 19.2 26.9 30.8 19.2 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 98.0% 5.9 11.8 27.5 33.3 17.6 3.9 3.9