Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#54
Expected Predictive Rating+13.8#38
Pace72.1#95
Improvement-3.3#340

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#50
First Shot+4.1#70
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#118
Layup/Dunks+6.1#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#294
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#266
Freethrows+2.9#43
Improvement-2.7#345

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#60
First Shot+4.2#61
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#143
Layups/Dunks+5.6#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#331
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#312
Freethrows+4.3#2
Improvement-0.5#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 2.4% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 3.7% 6.9% 1.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.2% 51.4% 32.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.9% 37.3% 18.6%
Average Seed 9.5 9.1 9.9
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 96.9% 94.6%
Conference Champion 25.0% 30.6% 21.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.1% 9.7% 7.3%
First Round35.1% 46.4% 29.0%
Second Round15.9% 22.3% 12.4%
Sweet Sixteen4.6% 7.1% 3.3%
Elite Eight1.6% 2.6% 1.1%
Final Four0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 35.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 3
Quad 26 - 38 - 6
Quad 37 - 214 - 8
Quad 49 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 342   Alcorn St. W 101-46 98%     1 - 0 +40.6 +21.1 +19.6
  Nov 09, 2024 193   Charlotte W 103-74 90%     2 - 0 +24.6 +27.1 -2.3
  Nov 18, 2024 215   Montana W 95-83 92%     3 - 0 +6.5 +11.8 -6.1
  Nov 22, 2024 42   Iowa W 77-69 46%     4 - 0 +18.8 -0.2 +18.3
  Nov 28, 2024 89   St. Bonaventure W 72-67 63%     5 - 0 +11.4 +6.0 +5.5
  Nov 29, 2024 80   North Texas W 61-57 61%     6 - 0 +11.0 +1.0 +10.4
  Dec 04, 2024 161   Wyoming W 70-67 89%     7 - 0 1 - 0 -0.2 +7.7 -7.5
  Dec 07, 2024 287   Utah Tech W 92-62 96%     8 - 0 +20.2 +10.1 +8.9
  Dec 14, 2024 180   South Florida W 88-67 90%     9 - 0 +17.0 +11.4 +5.3
  Dec 17, 2024 91   UC San Diego L 73-75 74%     9 - 1 +1.1 -0.2 +1.4
  Dec 22, 2024 43   @ St. Mary's L 67-71 35%    
  Dec 28, 2024 41   @ San Diego St. L 69-73 35%    
  Dec 31, 2024 52   @ Nevada L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 04, 2025 257   Fresno St. W 86-68 95%    
  Jan 07, 2025 189   @ San Jose St. W 78-70 78%    
  Jan 11, 2025 58   Boise St. W 75-72 63%    
  Jan 15, 2025 108   @ UNLV W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 22, 2025 52   Nevada W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 271   @ Air Force W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 29, 2025 108   UNLV W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 01, 2025 70   New Mexico W 84-79 67%    
  Feb 04, 2025 161   @ Wyoming W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 07, 2025 257   @ Fresno St. W 83-71 86%    
  Feb 11, 2025 104   Colorado St. W 77-69 78%    
  Feb 16, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 81-82 45%    
  Feb 19, 2025 189   San Jose St. W 81-67 90%    
  Feb 22, 2025 41   San Diego St. W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 26, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 72-75 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 104   @ Colorado St. W 74-72 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 271   Air Force W 78-59 95%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 3.6 7.2 7.2 4.3 1.5 0.3 25.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.6 8.3 4.7 1.2 0.1 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.8 7.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 18.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.8 5.8 2.2 0.2 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 4.0 1.4 0.1 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 2.3 0.7 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.5 7.6 11.0 14.4 16.0 15.1 12.3 8.4 4.4 1.5 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
18-2 97.6% 4.3    3.9 0.3
17-3 85.9% 7.2    5.4 1.8 0.1
16-4 58.6% 7.2    3.6 3.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 23.6% 3.6    1.0 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.6% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.0% 25.0 15.8 7.1 1.7 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 51.8% 48.2% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.5% 98.7% 45.7% 53.0% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6%
18-2 4.4% 93.8% 40.3% 53.5% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 89.6%
17-3 8.4% 83.0% 32.9% 50.2% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.0 1.4 74.7%
16-4 12.3% 68.0% 28.5% 39.5% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.8 2.3 0.1 3.9 55.3%
15-5 15.1% 50.0% 23.3% 26.7% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.7 0.3 7.6 34.8%
14-6 16.0% 31.8% 17.3% 14.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 0.4 10.9 17.5%
13-7 14.4% 20.6% 13.3% 7.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 0.4 11.4 8.4%
12-8 11.0% 13.3% 10.4% 2.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.3 9.5 3.2%
11-9 7.6% 8.0% 7.2% 0.8% 11.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.0 0.9%
10-10 4.5% 5.5% 5.4% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.2 0.1%
9-11 2.6% 3.3% 3.3% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.5
8-12 1.3% 2.2% 2.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
7-13 0.5% 2.6% 2.6% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 39.2% 19.1% 20.1% 9.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.3 5.3 8.8 13.9 1.9 0.0 60.8 24.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.2 31.0 33.3 26.2 7.1 2.4