Preseason Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#35
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace58.9#359
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#63
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 3.3% 3.7% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 9.6% 10.6% 3.1%
Top 6 Seed 16.7% 18.4% 6.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.0% 49.0% 26.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32.6% 35.6% 15.3%
Average Seed 7.6 7.5 8.7
.500 or above 96.3% 97.4% 89.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.5% 95.3% 89.5%
Conference Champion 22.9% 24.4% 13.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four5.8% 6.1% 4.0%
First Round43.4% 46.3% 24.4%
Second Round26.7% 28.8% 13.0%
Sweet Sixteen12.0% 13.2% 4.7%
Elite Eight5.4% 5.9% 2.0%
Final Four2.3% 2.6% 0.7%
Championship Game1.1% 1.2% 0.3%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: Towson (Home) - 86.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 36 - 6
Quad 38 - 214 - 8
Quad 49 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 124   Towson W 65-53 87%    
  Nov 07, 2024 147   Chattanooga W 72-59 89%    
  Nov 12, 2024 131   Akron W 69-57 87%    
  Nov 17, 2024 51   Nebraska W 67-65 55%    
  Nov 23, 2024 345   Cal Poly W 75-49 99%    
  Nov 28, 2024 46   USC W 67-66 54%    
  Dec 03, 2024 232   Texas San Antonio W 79-61 94%    
  Dec 07, 2024 77   @ Utah W 67-66 52%    
  Dec 15, 2024 63   Boise St. W 64-62 58%    
  Dec 19, 2024 243   Merrimack W 70-52 94%    
  Dec 22, 2024 81   Utah St. W 70-63 72%    
  Dec 28, 2024 314   Pacific W 77-55 97%    
  Jan 02, 2025 217   Pepperdine W 74-57 92%    
  Jan 04, 2025 271   @ Portland W 73-60 87%    
  Jan 07, 2025 141   Loyola Marymount W 70-57 86%    
  Jan 11, 2025 282   @ San Diego W 74-60 88%    
  Jan 18, 2025 217   @ Pepperdine W 71-60 82%    
  Jan 23, 2025 82   San Francisco W 68-61 71%    
  Jan 25, 2025 91   @ Washington St. W 63-61 56%    
  Jan 29, 2025 98   @ Santa Clara W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 6   Gonzaga L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 06, 2025 82   @ San Francisco W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 123   @ Oregon St. W 65-59 67%    
  Feb 11, 2025 98   Santa Clara W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 91   Washington St. W 66-58 74%    
  Feb 19, 2025 271   Portland W 76-57 94%    
  Feb 22, 2025 6   @ Gonzaga L 64-73 23%    
  Feb 27, 2025 141   @ Loyola Marymount W 67-60 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 123   Oregon St. W 68-56 83%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.6 7.6 5.5 1.6 22.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 7.1 10.7 8.0 2.5 30.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.5 6.3 2.5 0.2 18.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.9 3.5 0.7 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.5 7.0 9.7 12.4 14.5 15.2 13.8 10.2 5.5 1.6 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 100.0% 5.5    4.7 0.8
16-2 75.0% 7.6    4.9 2.7 0.0
15-3 40.7% 5.6    2.5 2.7 0.4 0.0
14-4 13.7% 2.1    0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.9% 22.9 14.4 7.2 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 99.9% 61.2% 38.7% 2.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
17-1 5.5% 98.5% 51.2% 47.3% 3.7 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.9%
16-2 10.2% 92.9% 39.8% 53.1% 5.8 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.7 88.3%
15-3 13.8% 80.5% 30.5% 50.0% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.7 71.9%
14-4 15.2% 59.8% 22.0% 37.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.1 48.4%
13-5 14.5% 36.9% 15.4% 21.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.2 0.6 0.0 9.2 25.4%
12-6 12.4% 20.0% 9.6% 10.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 9.9 11.6%
11-7 9.7% 10.2% 6.3% 3.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 4.1%
10-8 7.0% 4.3% 3.4% 1.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.7 1.0%
9-9 4.5% 2.0% 1.7% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.3%
8-10 2.7% 1.1% 1.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
7-11 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-12 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 46.0% 19.8% 26.2% 7.6 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.6 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.8 4.7 6.5 8.4 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 54.0 32.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.6 52.1 38.4 9.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 54.2 24.7 15.8 2.6 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.2 29.5 36.4 22.7 11.4