St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#30
Expected Predictive Rating+15.0#28
Pace58.9#359
Improvement+3.5#44

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#49
First Shot+1.6#119
After Offensive Rebound+4.4#11
Layup/Dunks+4.1#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#253
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#249
Freethrows+0.9#118
Improvement-1.5#258

Defense
Total Defense+8.8#14
First Shot+6.9#22
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#49
Layups/Dunks+1.5#110
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#22
Freethrows+1.4#87
Improvement+5.1#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 2.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 13.0% 33.6% 5.6%
Top 6 Seed 54.6% 84.3% 44.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.3% 99.7% 97.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.6% 99.6% 97.0%
Average Seed 6.2 5.1 6.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 99.3% 100.0% 99.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round98.3% 99.7% 97.8%
Second Round66.1% 77.1% 62.1%
Sweet Sixteen25.7% 35.5% 22.1%
Elite Eight8.8% 11.6% 7.8%
Final Four3.2% 4.4% 2.8%
Championship Game1.1% 1.6% 0.9%
National Champion0.3% 0.5% 0.3%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 26.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 25 - 3
Quad 26 - 211 - 6
Quad 36 - 016 - 6
Quad 410 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 157   Towson W 76-69 93%     1 - 0 +4.9 +9.6 -4.2
  Nov 07, 2024 119   Chattanooga W 86-74 91%     2 - 0 +12.2 +17.2 -4.0
  Nov 12, 2024 102   Akron W 87-68 88%     3 - 0 +20.8 +13.7 +6.9
  Nov 17, 2024 48   Nebraska W 77-74 64%     4 - 0 +14.0 +15.9 -1.6
  Nov 23, 2024 242   Cal Poly W 80-66 97%     5 - 0 +7.0 +1.2 +5.5
  Nov 28, 2024 59   USC W 71-36 67%     6 - 0 +45.1 +11.6 +38.2
  Nov 29, 2024 65   Arizona St. L 64-68 73%     6 - 1 +4.3 -1.0 +5.2
  Dec 03, 2024 208   Texas San Antonio W 82-74 OT 96%     7 - 1 +2.9 +0.4 +2.0
  Dec 07, 2024 68   @ Utah W 72-63 65%     8 - 1 +19.8 +5.8 +14.1
  Dec 14, 2024 49   Boise St. L 65-67 OT 64%     8 - 2 +8.9 +1.8 +7.0
  Dec 19, 2024 214   Merrimack W 73-68 96%     9 - 2 -0.2 +13.8 -13.3
  Dec 22, 2024 45   Utah St. L 68-75 72%     9 - 3 +1.8 -0.1 +1.5
  Dec 28, 2024 277   Pacific W 70-60 98%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +1.0 +0.6 +1.5
  Jan 02, 2025 226   Pepperdine W 71-41 96%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +23.9 +2.5 +24.7
  Jan 04, 2025 284   @ Portland W 81-58 95%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +18.6 +7.6 +12.1
  Jan 07, 2025 169   Loyola Marymount W 81-56 94%     13 - 3 4 - 0 +22.1 +20.0 +5.4
  Jan 11, 2025 314   @ San Diego W 103-56 96%     14 - 3 5 - 0 +40.4 +40.5 +5.6
  Jan 18, 2025 226   @ Pepperdine W 74-50 92%     15 - 3 6 - 0 +23.0 +10.3 +15.9
  Jan 23, 2025 69   San Francisco W 71-51 81%     16 - 3 7 - 0 +25.6 +11.7 +16.6
  Jan 25, 2025 107   @ Washington St. W 80-75 79%     17 - 3 8 - 0 +11.1 +18.2 -6.5
  Jan 29, 2025 60   @ Santa Clara W 67-54 59%     18 - 3 9 - 0 +25.3 +8.1 +18.9
  Feb 01, 2025 11   Gonzaga W 62-58 46%     19 - 3 10 - 0 +19.8 +3.2 +17.2
  Feb 06, 2025 69   @ San Francisco L 64-65 65%     19 - 4 10 - 1 +9.7 +2.9 +6.7
  Feb 08, 2025 87   @ Oregon St. W 63-49 71%     20 - 4 11 - 1 +22.9 +6.0 +20.1
  Feb 11, 2025 60   Santa Clara W 73-64 76%     21 - 4 12 - 1 +16.2 +8.7 +8.2
  Feb 15, 2025 107   Washington St. W 77-56 89%     22 - 4 13 - 1 +22.0 +11.9 +12.4
  Feb 19, 2025 284   Portland W 79-66 98%     23 - 4 14 - 1 +3.5 +3.4 +0.8
  Feb 22, 2025 11   @ Gonzaga L 68-74 26%    
  Feb 27, 2025 169   @ Loyola Marymount W 70-57 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 87   Oregon St. W 71-60 86%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.8 17.9 60.2 20.4 99.3 1st
2nd 0.7 0.7 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.5 17.9 60.2 20.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 20.4    20.4
16-2 100.0% 60.2    60.2
15-3 100.0% 17.9    8.5 9.4
14-4 53.0% 0.8    0.1 0.6 0.1
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 99.3% 99.3 89.2 10.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 20.4% 99.8% 33.7% 66.1% 4.8 0.1 0.6 2.8 4.8 5.7 4.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
16-2 60.2% 98.7% 29.2% 69.6% 6.4 0.0 0.7 3.7 10.0 17.4 16.6 8.4 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 98.2%
15-3 17.9% 96.5% 26.0% 70.5% 7.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 4.9 5.1 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 95.3%
14-4 1.5% 83.9% 26.2% 57.7% 8.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 78.2%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.3% 29.5% 68.9% 6.2 0.1 0.6 3.5 8.8 16.8 24.9 23.5 14.1 5.2 0.9 0.1 1.7 97.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.9% 100.0% 3.7 1.0 8.6 32.1 38.8 16.6 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.9% 100.0% 5.1 6.1 19.7 38.0 27.1 8.4 0.4 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.7% 99.3% 5.7 1.9 10.6 27.5 38.0 18.3 2.8 0.2