Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#284
Expected Predictive Rating-12.7#322
Pace58.3#361
Improvement+0.2#147

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#217
First Shot+0.7#148
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#306
Layup/Dunks-1.9#238
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#102
Freethrows+2.0#70
Improvement+1.9#16

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#320
First Shot+1.4#134
After Offensive Rebounds-6.0#362
Layups/Dunks+2.5#96
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#88
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#270
Freethrows-0.1#193
Improvement-1.6#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 1.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.6% 42.1% 52.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercyhurst (Home) - 85.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 71 - 12
Quad 32 - 73 - 19
Quad 45 - 58 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 182   North Alabama L 57-73 42%     0 - 1 -20.2 -12.9 -9.2
  Nov 07, 2024 164   Jacksonville St. W 73-67 39%     1 - 1 +2.7 +5.7 -2.3
  Nov 11, 2024 338   LIU Brooklyn L 54-63 77%     1 - 2 -23.1 -15.5 -9.3
  Nov 15, 2024 142   Belmont L 71-79 33%     1 - 3 -9.6 +2.6 -12.9
  Nov 21, 2024 106   @ California L 69-78 11%     1 - 4 -1.8 +3.6 -5.9
  Nov 24, 2024 359   Mercyhurst W 68-57 85%    
  Nov 27, 2024 306   Sacramento St. W 64-59 66%    
  Nov 30, 2024 143   @ Wright St. L 67-77 17%    
  Dec 02, 2024 224   @ Miami (OH) L 64-70 28%    
  Dec 07, 2024 302   Stony Brook W 68-67 55%    
  Dec 16, 2024 148   @ Northern Colorado L 64-74 18%    
  Dec 21, 2024 40   @ Boise St. L 56-76 4%    
  Dec 31, 2024 91   UNLV L 62-71 20%    
  Jan 04, 2025 189   Wyoming L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 07, 2025 63   @ San Diego St. L 54-72 6%    
  Jan 11, 2025 250   San Jose St. W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 14, 2025 42   @ Nevada L 55-75 4%    
  Jan 17, 2025 254   @ Fresno St. L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 22, 2025 63   San Diego St. L 57-69 14%    
  Jan 25, 2025 45   Utah St. L 66-79 12%    
  Jan 28, 2025 101   @ Colorado St. L 58-72 11%    
  Feb 01, 2025 250   @ San Jose St. L 62-67 34%    
  Feb 04, 2025 42   Nevada L 58-72 11%    
  Feb 08, 2025 58   New Mexico L 67-79 14%    
  Feb 11, 2025 91   @ UNLV L 59-74 9%    
  Feb 18, 2025 189   @ Wyoming L 63-71 24%    
  Feb 22, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 25, 2025 101   Colorado St. L 61-69 24%    
  Mar 01, 2025 58   @ New Mexico L 64-82 6%    
  Mar 04, 2025 40   Boise St. L 59-73 11%    
  Mar 08, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 63-82 5%    
Projected Record 8 - 23 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.7 0.9 0.2 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.4 3.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 13.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 6.2 7.9 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 21.8 9th
10th 0.3 4.6 9.7 8.8 3.6 0.6 0.0 27.6 10th
11th 3.1 9.1 10.5 6.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 30.8 11th
Total 3.1 9.4 15.2 17.4 17.1 14.3 10.2 6.2 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.2
11-9 0.3% 0.3
10-10 0.9% 0.9
9-11 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
8-12 3.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.6
7-13 6.2% 6.2
6-14 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.2
5-15 14.3% 14.3
4-16 17.1% 17.1
3-17 17.4% 17.4
2-18 15.2% 15.2
1-19 9.4% 9.4
0-20 3.1% 3.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%