IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.8	#269
Expected Predictive Rating	-11.7	#333

Pace	59.0	#358
Improvement	+0.7	#143

Offense
Total Offense	-3.2	#259

First Shot	-0.8	#193
After Offensive Rebound	-2.4	#312

Layup/Dunks	-0.3	#195
2 Pt Jumpshots	-1.1	#241
3 Pt Jumpshots	+1.4	#129
Freethrows	-0.8	#233

Improvement	-0.6	#229

Defense
Total Defense	-2.6	#253

First Shot	-1.8	#237
After Offensive Rebounds	-0.8	#249

Layups/Dunks	-1.1	#212
2 Pt Jumpshots	-1.8	#311
3 Pt Jumpshots	+1.8	#106
Freethrows	-0.7	#235

Improvement	+1.3	#89

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.7	15.5	16.0

.500 or above	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
.500 or above in Conference	0.6%	1.8%	0.3%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	47.7%	32.0%	52.9%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Home) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 2	1 - 7	1 - 12
Quad 3	2 - 9	3 - 21
Quad 4	4 - 5	7 - 25

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	197	North Alabama	L	57-73	46%	0 - 1			-20.8	-12.2	-10.4
Nov 07, 2024	152	Jacksonville St.	W	73-67	39%	1 - 1			+3.2	+3.4	+0.4
Nov 11, 2024	336	LIU Brooklyn	L	54-63	78%	1 - 2			-23.0	-13.1	-11.6
Nov 15, 2024	130	Belmont	L	71-79	33%	1 - 3			-9.3	+1.4	-11.4
Nov 21, 2024	128	@ California	L	69-78	16%	1 - 4			-4.1	+0.1	-4.8
Nov 24, 2024	358	Mercyhurst	W	82-48	85%	2 - 4			+16.9	+17.9	+5.7
Nov 27, 2024	335	Sacramento St.	L	61-63	78%	2 - 5			-15.7	-10.7	-5.2
Nov 30, 2024	168	@ Wright St.	L	57-70	21%	2 - 6			-10.4	-11.0	-1.1
Dec 02, 2024	200	@ Miami (OH)	L	60-73	25%	2 - 7			-11.8	-4.0	-9.5
Dec 07, 2024	306	Stony Brook	W	69-61	58%	3 - 7			+0.0	-8.3	+8.4
Dec 16, 2024	180	@ Northern Colorado	L	76-81	23%	3 - 8			-3.0	+0.7	-3.6
Dec 21, 2024	58	@ Boise St.	L	59-77	6%	3 - 9	0 - 1		-5.6	-2.4	-4.7
Dec 31, 2024	106	UNLV	L	61-68	25%
Jan 04, 2025	159	Wyoming	L	64-67	40%
Jan 08, 2025	38	@ San Diego St.	L	53-74	3%
Jan 11, 2025	162	San Jose St.	L	65-68	40%
Jan 14, 2025	60	@ Nevada	L	55-73	5%
Jan 17, 2025	273	@ Fresno St.	L	67-70	40%
Jan 22, 2025	38	San Diego St.	L	56-71	9%
Jan 25, 2025	47	Utah St.	L	61-75	11%
Jan 28, 2025	97	@ Colorado St.	L	58-72	10%
Feb 01, 2025	162	@ San Jose St.	L	62-71	22%
Feb 04, 2025	60	Nevada	L	58-70	14%
Feb 08, 2025	64	New Mexico	L	67-78	16%
Feb 11, 2025	106	@ UNLV	L	58-71	12%
Feb 18, 2025	159	@ Wyoming	L	61-70	21%
Feb 22, 2025	273	Fresno St.	W	70-67	62%
Feb 25, 2025	97	Colorado St.	L	61-69	24%
Mar 01, 2025	64	@ New Mexico	L	64-81	6%
Mar 04, 2025	58	Boise St.	L	60-72	14%
Mar 08, 2025	47	@ Utah St.	L	58-78	4%
Projected Record						7 - 24	4 - 16

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st																0.0							0.0	1st
2nd													0.0	0.0	0.0								0.0	2nd
3rd												0.0	0.0	0.0									0.0	3rd
4th										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0										0.1	4th
5th									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0										0.2	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0										0.8	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	0.7	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0											2.5	7th
8th					0.1	1.2	2.7	2.7	1.1	0.2	0.0												8.1	8th
9th			0.0	0.8	4.2	6.9	5.1	1.5	0.2	0.0													18.7	9th
10th		0.5	4.8	11.3	11.9	5.7	1.4	0.1	0.0														35.7	10th
11th	2.6	8.8	12.1	7.6	2.5	0.4	0.0																33.8	11th

Total	2.6	9.2	16.9	19.6	18.8	14.2	9.4	5.1	2.5	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0								Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5	100.0%	0.0				0.0
14-6	0.0%
13-7	0.0%
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0				0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5	0.0%																							0.0
14-6	0.0%																							0.0
13-7	0.0%																							0.0
12-8	0.1%		6.9%	6.9%		14.5															0.0	0.0		0.1
11-9	0.1%																							0.1
10-10	0.4%		0.5%	0.5%		15.0																0.0		0.4
9-11	1.1%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	1.1
8-12	2.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	2.5
7-13	5.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.1
6-14	9.4%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.4
5-15	14.2%																							14.2
4-16	18.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	18.8
3-17	19.6%																							19.6
2-18	16.9%																							16.9
1-19	9.2%																							9.2
0-20	2.6%																							2.6

Total	100%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	15.7															0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	2.4%