Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#200
Expected Predictive Rating-8.4#292
Pace67.2#249
Improvement+2.1#24

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#274
First Shot-5.4#314
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#81
Layup/Dunks+0.4#168
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#358
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#296
Freethrows+2.6#61
Improvement+1.8#14

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#124
First Shot+2.0#119
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#208
Layups/Dunks-7.4#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#27
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#50
Freethrows+2.2#74
Improvement+0.3#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 6.8% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 44.4% 54.2% 28.1%
.500 or above in Conference 63.1% 68.7% 53.9%
Conference Champion 7.4% 9.3% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 2.8% 5.9%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round5.5% 6.7% 3.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Home) - 62.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 10
Quad 410 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 228   Miami (OH) L 63-77 66%     0 - 1 -20.2 -14.4 -5.5
  Nov 10, 2024 38   @ Wisconsin L 56-87 7%     0 - 2 -16.5 -11.5 -5.3
  Nov 19, 2024 299   Queens W 65-53 79%     1 - 2 +1.7 -6.8 +9.4
  Nov 24, 2024 208   William & Mary W 75-72 63%    
  Nov 27, 2024 115   Sam Houston St. L 68-73 30%    
  Nov 29, 2024 189   Colgate L 64-65 48%    
  Nov 30, 2024 150   @ UNC Wilmington L 68-73 31%    
  Dec 14, 2024 125   High Point L 70-74 34%    
  Dec 18, 2024 244   @ Louisiana L 68-69 48%    
  Dec 20, 2024 83   @ North Texas L 54-66 14%    
  Jan 02, 2025 124   Troy L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 04, 2025 166   Texas St. W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 08, 2025 296   Coastal Carolina W 69-61 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 128   James Madison L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 16, 2025 305   @ Old Dominion W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 128   @ James Madison L 67-74 26%    
  Jan 23, 2025 112   @ Arkansas St. L 64-73 22%    
  Jan 25, 2025 324   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 29, 2025 305   Old Dominion W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 01, 2025 223   Georgia St. W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 05, 2025 229   Southern Miss W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 13, 2025 296   @ Coastal Carolina W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 223   @ Georgia St. L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 20, 2025 214   Georgia Southern W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 195   Marshall W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 25, 2025 214   @ Georgia Southern L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 28, 2025 195   @ Marshall L 69-72 39%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 7.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.4 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 4.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.3 4.4 1.1 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.7 1.7 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.2 2.7 0.3 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.3 1.1 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.4 0.1 5.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.9 6.7 9.1 11.0 12.1 12.2 11.5 9.8 7.5 5.1 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.4% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 93.8% 1.3    1.1 0.3 0.0
15-3 72.2% 2.1    1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 42.1% 2.1    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
13-5 14.2% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 3.9 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 41.9% 41.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 37.2% 37.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.4% 26.4% 26.4% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-3 2.9% 21.4% 21.4% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.3
14-4 5.1% 19.1% 19.1% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.1
13-5 7.5% 14.0% 14.0% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 6.4
12-6 9.8% 9.2% 9.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 8.9
11-7 11.5% 6.6% 6.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 10.8
10-8 12.2% 2.9% 2.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 11.8
9-9 12.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.9
8-10 11.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.9
7-11 9.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.1
6-12 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.7
5-13 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.9
4-14 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.7 1.5 0.8 94.3 0.0%