IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-16.3	#362
Expected Predictive Rating	-11.9	#317

Pace	77.4	#33
Improvement	+0.1	#168

Offense
Total Offense	-6.1	#337

First Shot	-3.9	#286
After Offensive Rebound	-2.2	#295

Layup/Dunks	+1.3	#133
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.3	#192
3 Pt Jumpshots	-1.3	#227
Freethrows	-3.5	#327

Improvement	-0.1	#195

Defense
Total Defense	-10.2	#364

First Shot	-7.4	#359
After Offensive Rebounds	-2.8	#323

Layups/Dunks	-4.9	#332
2 Pt Jumpshots	+3.4	#9
3 Pt Jumpshots	-5.9	#338
Freethrows	+0.0	#189

Improvement	+0.2	#162

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.5%	7.5%	0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	16.0	16.0

.500 or above	1.0%	5.3%	1.0%
.500 or above in Conference	14.7%	12.8%	14.7%
Conference Champion	0.4%	0.0%	0.4%
Last Place in Conference	21.7%	7.0%	21.8%

First Four	0.5%	7.5%	0.5%
First Round	0.2%	4.8%	0.2%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 0.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 6
Quad 3	0 - 3	0 - 8
Quad 4	7 - 15	7 - 23

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	19	@ Cincinnati	L	54-109	1%	0 - 1			-38.0	-14.3	-20.2
Nov 09, 2024	188	@ Tulsa	L	80-103	6%	0 - 2			-21.4	+0.6	-20.2
Nov 12, 2024	123	@ South Florida	L	69-85	3%	0 - 3			-10.4	-0.4	-10.0
Nov 16, 2024	309	@ Incarnate Word	L	64-92	15%	0 - 4			-33.3	-11.6	-22.9
Nov 18, 2024	21	@ Texas Tech	L	64-98	1%	0 - 5			-17.1	-4.0	-11.9
Nov 24, 2024	61	@ Missouri	L	65-93	0.5%
Nov 27, 2024	293	@ Pacific	L	72-84	12%
Dec 01, 2024	65	@ Kansas St.	L	63-91	1%
Dec 07, 2024	342	Central Arkansas	L	78-79	45%
Dec 11, 2024	323	@ Louisiana Monroe	L	71-81	18%
Dec 15, 2024	31	@ Texas	L	62-94	0.3%
Jan 04, 2025	345	@ Alabama A&M	L	75-82	27%
Jan 06, 2025	282	@ Alabama St.	L	69-82	12%
Jan 11, 2025	261	Texas Southern	L	73-81	23%
Jan 13, 2025	347	Prairie View	L	84-85	48%
Jan 18, 2025	357	@ Florida A&M	L	74-79	32%
Jan 20, 2025	291	@ Bethune-Cookman	L	71-84	13%
Jan 25, 2025	268	Southern	L	72-80	25%
Jan 27, 2025	240	Grambling St.	L	70-79	20%
Feb 01, 2025	364	Mississippi Valley	W	76-69	74%
Feb 08, 2025	349	@ Alcorn St.	L	73-79	28%
Feb 10, 2025	321	@ Jackson St.	L	73-83	18%
Feb 15, 2025	282	Alabama St.	L	72-79	27%
Feb 17, 2025	345	Alabama A&M	L	78-79	47%
Feb 22, 2025	347	@ Prairie View	L	81-88	29%
Feb 24, 2025	261	@ Texas Southern	L	70-84	11%
Mar 01, 2025	364	@ Mississippi Valley	W	73-72	56%
Mar 06, 2025	321	Jackson St.	L	76-80	35%
Mar 08, 2025	349	Alcorn St.	L	75-76	48%
Projected Record						7 - 22	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0				0.7	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0		0.0				1.5	3rd
4th										0.2	0.8	1.1	0.4	0.1							2.5	4th
5th									0.1	1.1	1.9	0.5	0.1								3.7	5th
6th								0.2	1.5	2.5	1.2	0.1									5.4	6th
7th							0.2	2.2	4.2	1.9	0.1										8.6	7th
8th						0.4	2.6	5.2	3.0	0.3	0.0										11.5	8th
9th					0.5	3.0	6.1	3.8	0.7	0.0											14.1	9th
10th			0.0	1.1	4.3	7.2	4.5	1.0	0.0												18.1	10th
11th		0.2	2.2	6.2	7.5	3.7	0.8	0.0													20.5	11th
12th	0.6	2.7	4.1	3.9	1.7	0.2	0.0														13.1	12th

Total	0.6	2.9	6.3	11.1	14.0	14.4	14.2	12.4	9.5	6.1	4.1	2.3	1.1	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0				Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	50.0%	0.0		0.0
15-3	84.4%	0.1		0.1	0.0
14-4	48.0%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0
13-5	13.4%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	5.5%	0.1				0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.4%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.0%																							0.0
16-2	0.1%																							0.1
15-3	0.1%		12.5%	12.5%		16.0																	0.0	0.1
14-4	0.3%		7.2%	7.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.3
13-5	0.6%		5.9%	5.9%		16.0																	0.0	0.6
12-6	1.1%		4.2%	4.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.1
11-7	2.3%		3.6%	3.6%		16.0																	0.1	2.2
10-8	4.1%		2.6%	2.6%		16.0																	0.1	4.0
9-9	6.1%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.1	6.0
8-10	9.5%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	9.4
7-11	12.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	12.3
6-12	14.2%																							14.2
5-13	14.4%																							14.4
4-14	14.0%																							14.0
3-15	11.1%																							11.1
2-16	6.3%																							6.3
1-17	2.9%																							2.9
0-18	0.6%																							0.6

Total	100%		0.5%	0.5%	0.0%	16.0																	0.5	99.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%