Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#238
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#110
Pace62.6#340
Improvement-3.1#359

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#217
First Shot-2.7#256
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#113
Layup/Dunks+0.5#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#314
Freethrows+0.1#187
Improvement-1.1#326

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#244
First Shot-0.4#191
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#294
Layups/Dunks-8.2#356
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#116
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#23
Freethrows-0.5#212
Improvement-2.0#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 9.0% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 47.8% 61.4% 35.3%
.500 or above in Conference 70.1% 76.4% 64.4%
Conference Champion 8.3% 10.8% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.1% 2.6%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 1.1%
First Round6.7% 8.6% 5.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Neutral) - 47.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 74 - 10
Quad 411 - 615 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 85   @ Butler W 68-66 11%     1 - 0 +11.6 +4.0 +7.8
  Nov 11, 2024 169   Chattanooga W 67-61 49%     2 - 0 +2.5 -3.0 +6.0
  Nov 17, 2024 9   @ Tennessee L 68-103 2%     2 - 1 -14.6 +4.4 -18.1
  Nov 20, 2024 268   @ Morehead St. L 58-63 45%     2 - 2 -7.5 -6.0 -2.2
  Nov 26, 2024 229   Georgia St. L 69-70 48%    
  Nov 27, 2024 166   Texas Arlington L 73-76 38%    
  Nov 30, 2024 188   @ East Tennessee St. L 66-72 31%    
  Dec 08, 2024 127   @ Samford L 72-81 19%    
  Dec 14, 2024 132   Southern Illinois L 66-69 40%    
  Dec 18, 2024 158   @ Ohio L 68-75 26%    
  Dec 21, 2024 82   @ Vanderbilt L 65-79 10%    
  Jan 02, 2025 177   @ North Florida L 70-76 29%    
  Jan 04, 2025 187   @ Jacksonville L 62-68 31%    
  Jan 10, 2025 353   West Georgia W 75-63 86%    
  Jan 11, 2025 297   Queens W 75-69 72%    
  Jan 16, 2025 199   Eastern Kentucky W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 152   @ Lipscomb L 67-74 26%    
  Jan 23, 2025 340   @ Central Arkansas W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 25, 2025 186   @ North Alabama L 67-73 31%    
  Jan 30, 2025 336   Bellarmine W 72-62 80%    
  Feb 01, 2025 199   @ Eastern Kentucky L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 05, 2025 186   North Alabama W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 340   Central Arkansas W 75-64 82%    
  Feb 13, 2025 218   Florida Gulf Coast W 65-63 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 327   Stetson W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 18, 2025 336   @ Bellarmine W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 20, 2025 297   @ Queens W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 24, 2025 152   Lipscomb L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 26, 2025 353   @ West Georgia W 72-66 70%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 8.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.1 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.8 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.7 4.0 0.6 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 5.4 4.2 0.8 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.7 3.9 0.8 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.7 3.2 0.7 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.3 5.3 8.1 10.6 12.5 13.3 13.3 11.2 8.9 5.8 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.4% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 94.4% 1.4    1.1 0.2
15-3 74.5% 2.4    1.5 0.8 0.1
14-4 44.8% 2.6    1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1
13-5 13.6% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 4.3 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 28.9% 28.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.5% 42.8% 42.8% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.4% 33.6% 33.6% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0
15-3 3.2% 23.7% 23.7% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.4
14-4 5.8% 19.9% 19.9% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 4.6
13-5 8.9% 14.3% 14.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 7.6
12-6 11.2% 9.1% 9.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 10.2
11-7 13.3% 7.0% 7.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 12.4
10-8 13.3% 4.9% 4.9% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 12.7
9-9 12.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 12.1
8-10 10.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.4
7-11 8.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.0
6-12 5.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.3
5-13 3.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.4 1.8 92.9 0.0%