Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#294
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#118
Pace80.3#9
Improvement+0.0#176

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#335
First Shot-5.7#322
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#186
Layup/Dunks-2.2#263
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#144
Freethrows-1.2#246
Improvement-1.7#352

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#211
First Shot+1.1#142
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#309
Layups/Dunks+2.3#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#160
Freethrows-2.4#304
Improvement+1.7#21
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.9% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 7.0% 22.2% 6.5%
.500 or above in Conference 13.0% 25.6% 12.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 35.4% 21.7% 35.9%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.9% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 3.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 33 - 73 - 15
Quad 47 - 610 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 59   @ San Francisco L 78-86 5%     0 - 1 +4.0 +0.4 +4.7
  Nov 07, 2024 104   @ California L 73-91 9%     0 - 2 -10.4 -1.5 -7.6
  Nov 14, 2024 136   Seattle W 75-71 29%     1 - 2 +2.6 -2.6 +5.0
  Nov 17, 2024 245   @ Eastern Washington W 82-78 29%     2 - 2 +2.8 -3.0 +5.4
  Nov 20, 2024 53   @ Arizona St. L 66-85 3%    
  Nov 23, 2024 44   @ St. Mary's L 62-83 3%    
  Nov 26, 2024 235   Grambling St. L 70-71 48%    
  Nov 30, 2024 67   @ Stanford L 66-84 4%    
  Dec 05, 2024 169   @ UC Davis L 72-82 19%    
  Dec 07, 2024 194   Cal St. Northridge L 78-81 41%    
  Dec 14, 2024 251   @ San Jose St. L 69-75 31%    
  Dec 17, 2024 295   Denver W 80-77 61%    
  Dec 21, 2024 262   @ Nebraska Omaha L 73-78 33%    
  Jan 02, 2025 57   UC Irvine L 67-80 12%    
  Jan 05, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 68-77 20%    
  Jan 09, 2025 158   @ UC San Diego L 68-78 18%    
  Jan 11, 2025 119   UC Santa Barbara L 72-79 26%    
  Jan 16, 2025 169   UC Davis L 75-79 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 57   @ UC Irvine L 64-83 5%    
  Jan 25, 2025 259   Long Beach St. W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 30, 2025 239   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 01, 2025 198   @ UC Riverside L 71-79 24%    
  Feb 06, 2025 174   Hawaii L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 13, 2025 270   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 194   @ Cal St. Northridge L 75-84 23%    
  Feb 20, 2025 158   UC San Diego L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 22, 2025 198   UC Riverside L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 27, 2025 119   @ UC Santa Barbara L 69-82 12%    
  Mar 01, 2025 239   Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-72 49%    
  Mar 06, 2025 270   Cal St. Fullerton W 73-71 55%    
  Mar 08, 2025 259   @ Long Beach St. L 72-77 34%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.9 3.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 11.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.4 5.8 4.2 0.8 0.0 15.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.4 6.9 4.0 0.8 0.0 19.9 10th
11th 0.8 3.0 5.6 7.2 5.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 25.5 11th
Total 0.8 3.0 6.0 9.5 12.2 13.3 12.9 11.9 9.9 7.4 5.2 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 56.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 30.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 18.0% 18.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 17.8% 17.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.6% 7.3% 7.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 1.1% 5.3% 5.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-8 2.1% 4.3% 4.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
11-9 3.5% 1.6% 1.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
10-10 5.2% 0.8% 0.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
9-11 7.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.4
8-12 9.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 9.9
7-13 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
6-14 12.9% 12.9
5-15 13.3% 13.3
4-16 12.2% 12.2
3-17 9.5% 9.5
2-18 6.0% 6.0
1-19 3.0% 3.0
0-20 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%