Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#237
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#154
Pace64.1#322
Improvement+1.3#63

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#232
First Shot-0.2#189
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#276
Layup/Dunks-6.0#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#201
Freethrows-1.1#245
Improvement-0.3#223

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#233
First Shot-2.4#261
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#137
Layups/Dunks+1.1#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#114
Freethrows-5.2#356
Improvement+1.6#30
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.7% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 34.2% 49.8% 25.8%
.500 or above in Conference 34.1% 43.3% 29.1%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.2% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.3% 11.0% 19.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.9% 2.7% 1.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Away) - 34.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 84 - 12
Quad 410 - 514 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 102   @ California L 73-86 14%     0 - 1 -5.3 +1.2 -6.1
  Nov 11, 2024 241   North Dakota St. W 86-81 62%     1 - 1 -2.0 +15.9 -17.4
  Nov 16, 2024 255   Fresno St. W 74-58 65%     2 - 1 +8.2 -3.5 +11.1
  Nov 22, 2024 218   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 63-67 35%    
  Nov 23, 2024 275   Florida International W 73-71 58%    
  Nov 24, 2024 149   Northeastern L 67-71 34%    
  Nov 30, 2024 208   @ Southern Utah L 69-74 34%    
  Dec 05, 2024 59   @ UC Irvine L 59-75 8%    
  Dec 07, 2024 159   @ UC San Diego L 64-71 27%    
  Dec 18, 2024 289   @ Portland L 68-69 50%    
  Dec 21, 2024 221   Portland St. W 76-74 57%    
  Dec 23, 2024 241   @ North Dakota St. L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 02, 2025 147   UC Davis L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 04, 2025 263   Long Beach St. W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 09, 2025 130   @ UC Santa Barbara L 66-75 22%    
  Jan 11, 2025 194   Cal St. Northridge W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 19, 2025 175   @ Hawaii L 64-70 30%    
  Jan 23, 2025 274   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 202   UC Riverside W 70-69 55%    
  Jan 30, 2025 269   Cal Poly W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 194   @ Cal St. Northridge L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 06, 2025 130   UC Santa Barbara L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 202   @ UC Riverside L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 13, 2025 159   UC San Diego L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 274   Cal St. Fullerton W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 147   @ UC Davis L 66-74 25%    
  Feb 22, 2025 59   UC Irvine L 62-72 20%    
  Feb 27, 2025 263   @ Long Beach St. L 66-67 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 269   @ Cal Poly L 73-74 45%    
  Mar 06, 2025 175   Hawaii W 67-66 50%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.2 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.9 3.1 0.9 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.8 3.5 0.9 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.9 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.9 4.2 1.0 0.0 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.7 3.8 0.9 0.1 12.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 4.4 2.9 0.7 0.0 11.9 10th
11th 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.9 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 10.5 11th
Total 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.8 6.0 8.4 10.1 11.4 11.8 11.4 9.8 8.3 6.2 4.3 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 75.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1
16-4 46.3% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 24.4% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 23.1% 23.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 32.1% 32.1% 12.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.7% 21.8% 21.8% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
15-5 1.6% 15.5% 15.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-6 2.8% 12.0% 12.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.5
13-7 4.3% 8.2% 8.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.0
12-8 6.2% 4.2% 4.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.9
11-9 8.3% 2.1% 2.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.1
10-10 9.8% 1.4% 1.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.6
9-11 11.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 11.3
8-12 11.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 11.8
7-13 11.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 11.3
6-14 10.1% 10.1
5-15 8.4% 8.4
4-16 6.0% 6.0
3-17 3.8% 3.8
2-18 2.1% 2.1
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 98.1 0.0%