Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#203
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#118
Pace67.4#238
Improvement+1.4#63

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#271
First Shot-3.3#271
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#176
Layup/Dunks-0.9#216
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#256
Freethrows+0.6#161
Improvement+0.0#178

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#137
First Shot+2.3#107
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#268
Layups/Dunks+3.6#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#266
Freethrows-1.0#243
Improvement+1.4#41
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.5% 13.9% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 52.5% 74.4% 48.6%
.500 or above in Conference 74.8% 84.8% 73.1%
Conference Champion 10.5% 15.2% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.5% 2.4%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round8.4% 13.8% 7.5%
Second Round0.6% 1.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Minnesota (Away) - 15.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 34 - 8
Quad 410 - 514 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 195   @ South Alabama W 74-70 37%     1 - 0 +5.3 +5.2 +0.3
  Nov 07, 2024 302   Stony Brook L 72-73 79%     1 - 1 -11.6 -4.9 -6.7
  Nov 11, 2024 14   @ Marquette L 62-70 4%     1 - 2 +9.7 -5.0 +15.1
  Nov 13, 2024 96   @ George Mason W 70-69 16%     2 - 2 +9.5 +3.1 +6.4
  Nov 25, 2024 94   @ Minnesota L 57-68 15%    
  Dec 14, 2024 270   @ Valparaiso W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 17, 2024 29   Mississippi St. L 63-78 8%    
  Dec 21, 2024 13   @ Arizona L 64-85 3%    
  Jan 04, 2025 159   Ohio W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 07, 2025 139   @ Akron L 65-72 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 120   @ Toledo L 70-78 24%    
  Jan 14, 2025 287   Eastern Michigan W 69-62 75%    
  Jan 18, 2025 326   @ Northern Illinois W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 21, 2025 279   Ball St. W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 324   Western Michigan W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 28, 2025 331   @ Buffalo W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 259   Bowling Green W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 04, 2025 224   Miami (OH) W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 11, 2025 140   @ Kent St. L 63-70 28%    
  Feb 15, 2025 139   Akron L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 18, 2025 159   @ Ohio L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 22, 2025 324   @ Western Michigan W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 25, 2025 331   Buffalo W 77-66 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 287   @ Eastern Michigan W 66-65 56%    
  Mar 04, 2025 279   @ Ball St. W 69-68 53%    
  Mar 07, 2025 326   Northern Illinois W 73-63 81%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 3.1 2.1 0.8 0.2 10.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.9 3.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.6 3.8 0.8 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.5 3.0 0.4 13.2 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 5.6 3.3 0.4 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.1 2.8 0.4 10.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 1.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.8 4.0 7.3 8.9 11.5 12.9 13.5 11.9 10.5 7.0 4.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.4% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 94.7% 2.1    1.7 0.4 0.0
15-3 70.5% 3.1    2.0 1.0 0.1
14-4 40.0% 2.8    1.0 1.3 0.5 0.0
13-5 13.1% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.5% 10.5 5.8 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 60.8% 60.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
17-1 0.8% 36.5% 36.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.2% 33.2% 33.2% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.5
15-3 4.4% 19.9% 19.9% 13.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.5
14-4 7.0% 22.5% 22.5% 13.3 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 5.4
13-5 10.5% 13.8% 13.8% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 9.0
12-6 11.9% 9.9% 9.9% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 10.7
11-7 13.5% 9.0% 9.0% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 12.3
10-8 12.9% 5.4% 5.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 12.2
9-9 11.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 11.2
8-10 8.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.8
7-11 7.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.3
6-12 4.0% 4.0
5-13 2.8% 2.8
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 2.6 2.0 0.6 91.5 0.0%