Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#101
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#128
Pace65.3#292
Improvement-1.9#338

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#118
First Shot+4.6#57
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#310
Layup/Dunks-0.9#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#60
Freethrows+1.2#128
Improvement+0.1#152

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#93
First Shot+1.7#123
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#110
Layups/Dunks-1.0#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
Freethrows+1.2#116
Improvement-2.0#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 7.1% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.4% 2.8% 0.8%
Average Seed 10.5 10.4 11.3
.500 or above 73.1% 77.7% 51.4%
.500 or above in Conference 63.1% 65.9% 49.8%
Conference Champion 3.8% 4.2% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.8% 2.0%
First Four1.0% 1.2% 0.4%
First Round5.9% 6.5% 3.2%
Second Round2.0% 2.2% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 82.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 6
Quad 23 - 54 - 11
Quad 34 - 28 - 13
Quad 410 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 253   North Dakota W 82-56 88%     1 - 0 +18.3 +0.4 +16.3
  Nov 08, 2024 296   Tennessee St. W 87-79 OT 91%     2 - 0 -2.2 -3.0 -0.3
  Nov 12, 2024 294   Denver W 74-65 91%     3 - 0 -1.1 -3.0 +2.1
  Nov 16, 2024 47   Mississippi L 69-84 32%     3 - 1 -5.2 +7.9 -14.8
  Nov 22, 2024 202   UC Riverside W 75-65 83%    
  Nov 28, 2024 83   Washington L 70-72 42%    
  Dec 04, 2024 154   Loyola Marymount W 70-63 75%    
  Dec 07, 2024 68   @ Colorado L 66-72 28%    
  Dec 14, 2024 50   Virginia Commonwealth L 65-70 34%    
  Dec 17, 2024 226   Radford W 75-64 84%    
  Dec 21, 2024 40   @ Nevada L 62-72 19%    
  Dec 28, 2024 64   New Mexico L 75-76 47%    
  Dec 31, 2024 250   @ San Jose St. W 70-64 72%    
  Jan 07, 2025 255   Fresno St. W 79-66 87%    
  Jan 11, 2025 89   UNLV W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 14, 2025 63   @ San Diego St. L 61-68 27%    
  Jan 18, 2025 182   @ Wyoming W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 22, 2025 42   Boise St. L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 255   @ Fresno St. W 76-69 72%    
  Jan 28, 2025 292   Air Force W 72-57 90%    
  Feb 05, 2025 64   @ New Mexico L 72-79 28%    
  Feb 08, 2025 63   San Diego St. L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 11, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 71-79 24%    
  Feb 15, 2025 182   Wyoming W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 18, 2025 40   Nevada L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 22, 2025 89   @ UNLV L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 25, 2025 292   @ Air Force W 69-60 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 45   Utah St. L 74-76 42%    
  Mar 04, 2025 250   San Jose St. W 73-61 86%    
  Mar 07, 2025 42   @ Boise St. L 64-73 22%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.5 1.2 0.1 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.3 4.3 1.3 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.6 5.2 1.4 0.1 15.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.0 6.8 5.0 1.4 0.1 18.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.7 6.2 3.6 0.8 0.1 19.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.2 2.5 1.0 0.1 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.6 6.7 9.6 11.7 13.2 13.0 11.9 9.4 6.9 4.5 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 98.5% 0.5    0.4 0.1
17-3 84.4% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
16-4 51.2% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 16.0% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 90.0% 28.0% 62.0% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.1%
18-2 0.5% 81.8% 30.8% 51.0% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 73.7%
17-3 1.2% 63.0% 21.4% 41.6% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 52.9%
16-4 2.4% 43.7% 18.0% 25.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.4 31.4%
15-5 4.5% 23.5% 13.1% 10.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 3.5 12.0%
14-6 6.9% 14.6% 10.8% 3.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.9 4.2%
13-7 9.4% 7.6% 6.6% 1.0% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.6 1.1%
12-8 11.9% 4.1% 3.9% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 11.4 0.2%
11-9 13.0% 2.8% 2.8% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.6 0.1%
10-10 13.2% 2.0% 2.0% 12.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.9
9-11 11.7% 1.1% 1.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5
8-12 9.6% 0.7% 0.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5
7-13 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
6-14 4.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 4.6
5-15 2.6% 2.6
4-16 1.2% 1.2
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.5% 4.2% 2.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.5 2.4%