High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#125
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#70
Pace68.1#217
Improvement-0.9#291

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#53
First Shot+4.7#59
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#162
Layup/Dunks+0.7#157
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#175
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
Freethrows+3.5#39
Improvement+0.0#181

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#252
First Shot-1.3#222
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#253
Layups/Dunks-0.1#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#251
Freethrows+1.5#96
Improvement-0.9#298
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.9% 34.7% 27.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.6
.500 or above 97.2% 98.7% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 93.2% 94.7% 91.0%
Conference Champion 45.3% 49.3% 39.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round31.9% 34.7% 27.6%
Second Round3.9% 4.7% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Neutral) - 60.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 36 - 46 - 6
Quad 415 - 221 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 93-51 98%     1 - 0 +20.0 +12.2 +7.3
  Nov 09, 2024 320   Jackson St. W 80-71 90%     2 - 0 -2.8 +1.1 -4.0
  Nov 12, 2024 267   NC Central W 76-60 85%     3 - 0 +7.6 +10.0 +0.1
  Nov 15, 2024 103   UAB W 68-65 54%     4 - 0 +4.6 -3.2 +8.0
  Nov 18, 2024 265   American W 80-73 84%     5 - 0 -1.2 +16.8 -16.6
  Nov 24, 2024 162   Missouri St. W 75-72 60%    
  Dec 03, 2024 170   @ UNC Greensboro W 72-71 50%    
  Dec 06, 2024 83   North Texas L 66-67 46%    
  Dec 14, 2024 200   Appalachian St. W 74-70 66%    
  Dec 21, 2024 132   @ Southern Illinois L 72-74 42%    
  Dec 29, 2024 206   Norfolk St. W 78-70 76%    
  Jan 02, 2025 227   Radford W 79-70 79%    
  Jan 04, 2025 177   @ UNC Asheville W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 08, 2025 312   @ Charleston Southern W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 11, 2025 222   Gardner-Webb W 81-72 78%    
  Jan 15, 2025 179   @ Longwood W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 281   Presbyterian W 81-69 85%    
  Jan 22, 2025 314   @ South Carolina Upstate W 83-75 76%    
  Jan 25, 2025 193   Winthrop W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 281   @ Presbyterian W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 05, 2025 227   @ Radford W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 177   UNC Asheville W 80-74 72%    
  Feb 12, 2025 179   Longwood W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 193   @ Winthrop W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 19, 2025 312   Charleston Southern W 82-68 89%    
  Feb 22, 2025 222   @ Gardner-Webb W 78-75 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 314   South Carolina Upstate W 86-72 89%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.7 9.3 12.5 11.0 6.3 1.9 45.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.4 8.5 6.2 2.1 0.3 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.4 5.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.3 2.4 4.0 1.8 0.2 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.7 1.1 0.1 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.5 6.1 9.2 12.7 15.2 15.9 14.6 11.3 6.3 1.9 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
15-1 100.0% 6.3    6.3 0.1
14-2 97.3% 11.0    10.1 0.9
13-3 85.5% 12.5    9.3 3.0 0.2
12-4 58.3% 9.3    4.8 3.8 0.7 0.0
11-5 24.4% 3.7    0.9 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
10-6 4.5% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 45.3% 45.3 33.3 9.6 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.9% 66.2% 65.4% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 2.3%
15-1 6.3% 60.0% 59.9% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.0 0.1 2.5 0.2%
14-2 11.3% 50.0% 50.0% 12.6 0.0 0.2 2.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 5.6
13-3 14.6% 42.3% 42.3% 13.1 0.0 1.4 3.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.4
12-4 15.9% 33.9% 33.9% 13.4 0.5 2.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.5
11-5 15.2% 27.1% 27.1% 13.9 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.8 0.1 11.1
10-6 12.7% 21.7% 21.7% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.1 9.9
9-7 9.2% 16.6% 16.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 7.6
8-8 6.1% 13.0% 13.0% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 5.3
7-9 3.5% 8.7% 8.7% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.2
6-10 1.8% 6.7% 6.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
5-11 0.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-12 0.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 31.9% 31.9% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 7.1 10.9 8.3 3.6 0.7 68.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 8.0 2.9 12.9 25.7 5.7 12.9 2.9 11.4 21.4 4.3