Mercer
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#254
Expected Predictive Rating-9.7#306
Pace70.1#156
Improvement+0.4#126

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#253
First Shot-1.1#216
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#272
Layup/Dunks+2.0#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#308
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#201
Freethrows+0.1#179
Improvement+0.3#123

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#238
First Shot-1.8#239
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#205
Layups/Dunks-3.6#293
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#41
Freethrows-0.9#235
Improvement+0.1#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 8.0% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.2 15.0
.500 or above 30.0% 57.0% 27.9%
.500 or above in Conference 42.6% 60.1% 41.2%
Conference Champion 4.3% 9.4% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 9.3% 3.5% 9.8%
First Four1.0% 0.6% 1.0%
First Round3.9% 7.6% 3.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 7.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 73 - 11
Quad 410 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 111   @ DePaul L 64-95 14%     0 - 1 -24.0 -12.0 -9.4
  Nov 16, 2024 196   @ South Alabama L 66-75 28%     0 - 2 -7.7 -4.4 -3.4
  Nov 21, 2024 72   @ South Carolina L 64-79 7%    
  Nov 25, 2024 226   Jacksonville L 67-69 45%    
  Dec 04, 2024 353   West Georgia W 78-66 86%    
  Dec 08, 2024 326   @ Stetson W 72-71 55%    
  Dec 15, 2024 349   Chicago St. W 79-68 85%    
  Dec 18, 2024 299   @ Queens L 76-77 48%    
  Dec 21, 2024 193   @ Winthrop L 72-78 29%    
  Dec 28, 2024 223   @ Georgia St. L 70-75 35%    
  Jan 01, 2025 168   Chattanooga L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 347   @ VMI W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 08, 2025 188   East Tennessee St. L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 258   @ Western Carolina L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 15, 2025 127   Samford L 78-82 36%    
  Jan 18, 2025 204   @ Wofford L 67-73 32%    
  Jan 22, 2025 170   @ UNC Greensboro L 66-73 28%    
  Jan 25, 2025 135   Furman L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 29, 2025 309   The Citadel W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 168   @ Chattanooga L 69-76 27%    
  Feb 05, 2025 127   @ Samford L 75-85 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 204   Wofford W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 135   @ Furman L 69-78 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 347   VMI W 81-70 82%    
  Feb 19, 2025 309   @ The Citadel W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 22, 2025 170   UNC Greensboro L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 26, 2025 188   @ East Tennessee St. L 70-76 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 258   Western Carolina W 71-68 61%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.3 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.9 4.0 0.7 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.5 6.2 3.7 0.7 0.0 15.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.4 5.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 15.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.7 3.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.4 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.9 6.3 8.9 11.0 12.2 12.4 11.5 9.9 7.8 5.8 3.7 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 97.6% 0.5    0.5 0.1
15-3 84.9% 0.8    0.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 58.7% 1.3    0.6 0.6 0.1
13-5 28.2% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 54.5% 54.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.5% 36.5% 36.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.0% 25.3% 25.3% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
14-4 2.2% 21.0% 21.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.7
13-5 3.7% 15.7% 15.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 3.1
12-6 5.8% 11.4% 11.4% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 5.2
11-7 7.8% 7.5% 7.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 7.2
10-8 9.9% 5.4% 5.4% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.4
9-9 11.5% 4.1% 4.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 11.0
8-10 12.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 12.1
7-11 12.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.1
6-12 11.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.0
5-13 8.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.8
4-14 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
3-15 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.9
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.6 95.7 0.0%