Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#167
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#107
Pace69.2#179
Improvement+0.6#112

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#236
First Shot-3.3#269
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#122
Layup/Dunks-4.8#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#151
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#234
Freethrows+2.7#57
Improvement-0.2#212

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#119
First Shot+5.9#35
After Offensive Rebounds-4.2#340
Layups/Dunks+0.4#158
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.1#7
Freethrows-1.3#253
Improvement+0.9#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 6.1% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.7 13.3
.500 or above 49.0% 64.5% 39.2%
.500 or above in Conference 51.5% 60.4% 45.8%
Conference Champion 4.9% 7.0% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 4.0% 8.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.5% 6.1% 3.5%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Neutral) - 39.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 76 - 12
Quad 48 - 314 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 85   @ Butler L 65-72 17%     0 - 1 +2.6 -0.9 +3.3
  Nov 16, 2024 185   Tulsa W 111-106 3OT 64%     1 - 1 +0.7 -1.6 +0.7
  Nov 19, 2024 166   Texas Arlington W 78-68 61%     2 - 1 +6.6 +0.0 +6.4
  Nov 24, 2024 125   High Point L 72-75 39%    
  Dec 01, 2024 249   @ Oral Roberts W 72-71 54%    
  Dec 07, 2024 191   Indiana St. W 79-75 64%    
  Dec 14, 2024 79   @ Washington St. L 67-78 16%    
  Dec 22, 2024 130   UC Santa Barbara W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 29, 2024 299   @ Evansville W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 01, 2025 276   Valparaiso W 75-67 77%    
  Jan 04, 2025 95   @ Bradley L 64-73 21%    
  Jan 07, 2025 156   Illinois-Chicago W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 132   @ Southern Illinois L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 15, 2025 132   Southern Illinois W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 173   @ Illinois St. L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 21, 2025 119   @ Northern Iowa L 66-73 28%    
  Jan 25, 2025 106   Drake L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 29, 2025 191   @ Indiana St. L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 111   Murray St. L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 05, 2025 119   Northern Iowa L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 141   @ Belmont L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 12, 2025 299   Evansville W 76-66 80%    
  Feb 16, 2025 156   @ Illinois-Chicago L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 276   @ Valparaiso W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 173   Illinois St. W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 26, 2025 141   Belmont W 76-75 54%    
  Mar 02, 2025 106   @ Drake L 65-73 26%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.3 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.3 2.2 4.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.8 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 4.6 3.4 0.7 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.0 3.3 0.8 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.4 2.7 0.7 0.1 9.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.9 6.9 8.9 10.7 11.2 11.3 10.8 9.1 7.5 5.2 3.7 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 97.2% 0.4    0.4 0.1 0.0
17-3 84.4% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
16-4 62.9% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.1
15-5 32.4% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 13.0% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 53.2% 38.7% 14.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.7%
18-2 0.5% 38.9% 35.6% 3.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5.2%
17-3 1.1% 27.3% 27.1% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.3%
16-4 2.1% 20.1% 20.1% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7
15-5 3.7% 16.3% 16.3% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.1
14-6 5.2% 12.9% 12.9% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.5
13-7 7.5% 9.3% 9.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.8
12-8 9.1% 6.6% 6.6% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 8.5
11-9 10.8% 3.9% 3.9% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.4
10-10 11.3% 2.1% 2.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.1
9-11 11.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.1
8-12 10.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6
7-13 8.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.9
6-14 6.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.9
5-15 4.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.9
4-16 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.0
3-17 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 95.5 0.0%