Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#194
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#181
Pace66.8#238
Improvement-2.1#306

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#226
First Shot-3.8#290
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#77
Layup/Dunks-5.1#337
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#160
Freethrows+0.8#129
Improvement+0.7#123

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#153
First Shot+0.9#141
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#225
Layups/Dunks-4.0#318
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#14
Freethrows+0.4#158
Improvement-2.8#345
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.0% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 13.9
.500 or above 26.7% 36.1% 16.6%
.500 or above in Conference 29.2% 33.9% 24.0%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 12.5% 10.1% 15.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.6% 2.0% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Home) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 35 - 86 - 15
Quad 47 - 313 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 74   @ Butler L 65-72 13%     0 - 1 +3.5 -1.5 +4.8
  Nov 16, 2024 252   Tulsa W 111-106 3OT 74%     1 - 1 -3.0 -1.9 -2.7
  Nov 19, 2024 145   Texas Arlington W 78-68 54%     2 - 1 +7.5 +1.1 +6.3
  Nov 24, 2024 135   High Point W 71-61 39%     3 - 1 +11.4 -0.5 +12.4
  Nov 25, 2024 152   Boston College L 74-76 OT 43%     3 - 2 -1.7 -0.7 -1.0
  Nov 26, 2024 123   South Dakota St. L 55-75 35%     3 - 3 -17.5 -13.2 -5.6
  Dec 01, 2024 294   @ Oral Roberts W 72-67 60%     4 - 3 +0.9 +3.2 -1.8
  Dec 07, 2024 150   Indiana St. L 77-80 55%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -5.7 +1.2 -7.0
  Dec 14, 2024 77   @ Washington St. L 78-91 14%     4 - 5 -2.9 +11.1 -14.0
  Dec 22, 2024 138   UC Santa Barbara W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 29, 2024 290   @ Evansville W 71-69 59%    
  Jan 01, 2025 226   Valparaiso W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 04, 2025 79   @ Bradley L 64-75 14%    
  Jan 07, 2025 199   Illinois-Chicago W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 168   @ Southern Illinois L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 15, 2025 168   Southern Illinois W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 153   @ Illinois St. L 66-71 34%    
  Jan 21, 2025 98   @ Northern Iowa L 64-74 18%    
  Jan 25, 2025 67   Drake L 60-67 26%    
  Jan 29, 2025 150   @ Indiana St. L 75-80 33%    
  Feb 01, 2025 124   Murray St. L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 05, 2025 98   Northern Iowa L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 133   @ Belmont L 74-80 29%    
  Feb 12, 2025 290   Evansville W 74-66 77%    
  Feb 16, 2025 199   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 19, 2025 226   @ Valparaiso L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 22, 2025 153   Illinois St. W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 26, 2025 133   Belmont L 77-78 50%    
  Mar 02, 2025 67   @ Drake L 57-70 12%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.4 1.1 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.7 1.8 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.4 3.1 5.6 2.4 0.2 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.3 2.8 6.0 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.1 3.8 0.6 0.0 13.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.5 3.6 0.7 0.0 12.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.4 2.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 11.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.0 5.5 8.7 11.5 13.3 14.0 13.3 10.7 7.8 5.0 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 90.9% 0.0    0.0
17-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 53.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 30.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 24.2% 24.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.2% 13.0% 13.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.7% 13.5% 13.5% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-6 1.6% 10.1% 10.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
13-7 3.0% 8.8% 8.8% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8
12-8 5.0% 5.1% 5.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.7
11-9 7.8% 2.9% 2.9% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.5
10-10 10.7% 2.0% 2.0% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.5
9-11 13.3% 1.0% 1.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.1
8-12 14.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.1 13.9
7-13 13.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.3
6-14 11.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.5
5-15 8.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.7
4-16 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.5
3-17 3.0% 3.0
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 98.4 0.0%