Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#155
Expected Predictive Rating-10.6#309
Pace70.5#140
Improvement+0.8#95

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#148
First Shot+2.1#109
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#235
Layup/Dunks-3.5#289
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#192
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#23
Freethrows-1.1#241
Improvement+0.7#82

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#194
First Shot-1.1#212
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#168
Layups/Dunks-2.9#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#145
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#119
Freethrows-0.9#231
Improvement+0.1#178
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.6% 23.3% 17.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 61.0% 67.5% 43.2%
.500 or above in Conference 84.4% 86.8% 78.0%
Conference Champion 30.6% 33.4% 22.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.5% 3.3%
First Four3.0% 2.5% 4.4%
First Round20.6% 22.4% 15.5%
Second Round1.6% 1.8% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 34 - 54 - 10
Quad 413 - 517 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 38   @ Wisconsin L 67-79 10%     0 - 1 +2.5 +3.8 -2.1
  Nov 09, 2024 94   @ Wichita St. L 69-89 21%     0 - 2 -11.5 +0.9 -12.6
  Nov 17, 2024 295   @ Denver L 78-79 66%     0 - 3 -5.1 -4.2 -0.8
  Nov 19, 2024 74   @ Northwestern L 69-72 16%     0 - 4 +7.7 +8.2 -0.7
  Nov 24, 2024 229   Southern Miss W 80-74 73%    
  Nov 26, 2024 209   Abilene Christian W 76-70 70%    
  Nov 30, 2024 194   Cal St. Northridge W 80-75 67%    
  Dec 04, 2024 262   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-74 59%    
  Dec 07, 2024 215   UMKC W 74-68 70%    
  Dec 15, 2024 78   @ USC L 71-81 18%    
  Dec 18, 2024 198   @ UC Riverside L 73-74 46%    
  Dec 22, 2024 60   @ TCU L 69-81 15%    
  Jan 02, 2025 287   @ Idaho W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 04, 2025 245   @ Eastern Washington W 80-79 55%    
  Jan 09, 2025 173   Northern Colorado W 79-75 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 277   Northern Arizona W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 16, 2025 236   @ Idaho St. W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 225   @ Weber St. W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 20, 2025 245   Eastern Washington W 83-76 74%    
  Jan 25, 2025 211   @ Montana L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 30, 2025 307   Sacramento St. W 73-62 83%    
  Feb 01, 2025 218   Portland St. W 84-78 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 277   @ Northern Arizona W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 173   @ Northern Colorado L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 225   Weber St. W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 236   Idaho St. W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 211   Montana W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 27, 2025 218   @ Portland St. W 81-80 51%    
  Mar 01, 2025 307   @ Sacramento St. W 70-65 67%    
  Mar 03, 2025 287   Idaho W 79-69 80%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.3 7.8 7.4 4.9 2.3 0.6 30.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.3 6.0 2.9 0.7 0.1 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.8 5.8 4.2 1.2 0.2 14.4 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 4.9 3.0 0.6 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.1 6.4 8.6 10.9 12.5 13.2 12.5 10.9 8.1 5.0 2.3 0.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.0
16-2 98.4% 4.9    4.6 0.3 0.0
15-3 91.0% 7.4    6.2 1.1 0.0
14-4 71.9% 7.8    5.2 2.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 42.4% 5.3    2.3 2.4 0.6 0.1
12-6 15.1% 2.0    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.6% 30.6 21.6 7.0 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 60.1% 60.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 2.3% 55.3% 55.3% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0
16-2 5.0% 47.6% 47.6% 13.4 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6
15-3 8.1% 40.0% 40.0% 13.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 4.9
14-4 10.9% 32.7% 32.7% 14.2 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.2 0.2 7.3
13-5 12.5% 27.8% 27.8% 14.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 0.6 9.0
12-6 13.2% 19.8% 19.8% 15.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.9 10.6
11-7 12.5% 16.5% 16.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 10.4
10-8 10.9% 11.9% 11.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 9.6
9-9 8.6% 9.3% 9.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 7.8
8-10 6.4% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.0
7-11 4.1% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 4.0
6-12 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 2.5
5-13 1.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.6% 21.6% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 5.4 6.0 5.3 78.4 0.0%