New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#63
Expected Predictive Rating+15.6#17
Pace82.4#6
Improvement+0.1#162

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#64
First Shot+5.3#47
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#232
Layup/Dunks+9.8#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#320
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#261
Freethrows+0.9#147
Improvement+0.0#184

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#62
First Shot+4.1#64
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#171
Layups/Dunks+0.6#154
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#133
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#145
Freethrows+1.5#101
Improvement+0.1#169
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.8% 2.0% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 4.8% 5.1% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.6% 31.9% 15.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.8% 21.9% 8.9%
Average Seed 9.2 9.1 9.8
.500 or above 94.2% 95.2% 82.1%
.500 or above in Conference 88.2% 88.9% 78.7%
Conference Champion 14.6% 15.1% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four6.6% 6.8% 3.9%
First Round27.2% 28.3% 13.7%
Second Round13.1% 13.7% 5.4%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 4.3% 1.4%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.5% 0.3%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 92.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 5
Quad 24 - 36 - 8
Quad 35 - 211 - 10
Quad 49 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 220   Nicholls St. W 91-84 91%     1 - 0 +1.0 +0.3 -0.4
  Nov 08, 2024 28   UCLA W 72-64 33%     2 - 0 +21.1 +3.2 +17.3
  Nov 12, 2024 212   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 100-81 90%     3 - 0 +13.5 +7.6 +2.7
  Nov 17, 2024 16   @ St. John's L 71-85 20%     3 - 1 +3.5 +6.3 -2.9
  Nov 21, 2024 235   Grambling St. W 81-66 92%    
  Nov 24, 2024 266   Texas Southern W 86-69 94%    
  Nov 28, 2024 53   Arizona St. L 79-80 47%    
  Dec 04, 2024 251   San Jose St. W 83-67 93%    
  Dec 07, 2024 153   New Mexico St. W 81-70 85%    
  Dec 18, 2024 50   Virginia Commonwealth W 78-76 57%    
  Dec 28, 2024 102   @ Colorado St. W 76-75 53%    
  Dec 31, 2024 253   @ Fresno St. W 86-76 82%    
  Jan 03, 2025 39   Nevada W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 07, 2025 185   @ Wyoming W 81-74 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 62   San Diego St. W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 14, 2025 251   @ San Jose St. W 80-70 81%    
  Jan 17, 2025 43   Boise St. W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 20, 2025 253   Fresno St. W 89-73 92%    
  Jan 25, 2025 97   @ UNLV W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 83-87 35%    
  Feb 05, 2025 102   Colorado St. W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 292   @ Air Force W 78-66 86%    
  Feb 12, 2025 185   Wyoming W 84-71 87%    
  Feb 16, 2025 45   Utah St. W 86-84 55%    
  Feb 19, 2025 43   @ Boise St. L 74-79 32%    
  Feb 25, 2025 62   @ San Diego St. L 71-74 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 292   Air Force W 81-63 94%    
  Mar 04, 2025 39   @ Nevada L 73-79 31%    
  Mar 07, 2025 97   UNLV W 81-75 70%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.1 4.2 2.8 1.1 0.2 14.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.9 4.3 1.2 0.2 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.6 6.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.1 6.5 2.6 0.2 16.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.0 5.3 2.0 0.1 0.0 14.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.9 3.4 1.1 0.1 11.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.2 5.4 7.8 10.5 12.7 13.9 13.2 11.3 9.0 5.4 3.0 1.1 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
18-2 95.0% 2.8    2.5 0.4 0.0
17-3 76.7% 4.2    2.8 1.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 45.2% 4.1    1.7 1.8 0.5 0.0
15-5 16.3% 1.8    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.6% 14.6 8.8 4.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 61.1% 38.9% 2.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.1% 97.5% 45.4% 52.1% 4.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.5%
18-2 3.0% 96.5% 39.0% 57.5% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 94.2%
17-3 5.4% 87.4% 30.7% 56.7% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.7 81.8%
16-4 9.0% 73.4% 24.8% 48.7% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.5 0.1 2.4 64.7%
15-5 11.3% 53.3% 18.7% 34.5% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.5 0.3 5.3 42.5%
14-6 13.2% 33.3% 13.2% 20.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.8 23.1%
13-7 13.9% 18.4% 8.6% 9.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 0.4 11.4 10.7%
12-8 12.7% 9.1% 6.0% 3.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 11.5 3.3%
11-9 10.5% 5.2% 4.2% 1.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.9 1.1%
10-10 7.8% 3.1% 3.0% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.6 0.1%
9-11 5.4% 2.4% 2.4% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.2
8-12 3.2% 1.1% 1.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
7-13 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
6-14 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-15 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 30.6% 12.4% 18.2% 9.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.4 3.8 5.9 9.8 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.4 20.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.3 25.0 34.4 31.3 9.4