North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#114
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#110
Pace64.4#294
Improvement+8.4#1

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#51
First Shot+5.9#43
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#214
Layup/Dunks-4.6#330
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#215
3 Pt Jumpshots+12.9#1
Freethrows-1.7#280
Improvement+4.0#9

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#251
First Shot-4.0#305
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#68
Layups/Dunks-3.4#307
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#80
Freethrows+2.3#41
Improvement+4.4#1
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.9% 31.7% 24.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 99.0% 99.7% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 98.4% 92.1%
Conference Champion 39.5% 50.4% 20.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round28.9% 31.7% 24.2%
Second Round3.4% 3.9% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Home) - 63.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 22 - 22 - 2
Quad 35 - 47 - 6
Quad 414 - 321 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 141   Illinois St. L 68-77 69%     0 - 1 -11.1 -2.3 -9.5
  Nov 11, 2024 260   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 81-86 69%     0 - 2 -7.3 +15.7 -23.5
  Nov 13, 2024 72   @ Santa Clara W 88-80 OT 23%     1 - 2 +18.7 +12.0 +5.9
  Nov 18, 2024 198   @ Southern Illinois L 44-69 57%     1 - 3 -23.8 -24.0 -1.6
  Nov 26, 2024 118   @ Samford L 98-103 OT 39%     1 - 4 +0.9 +17.7 -16.5
  Nov 27, 2024 341   West Georgia W 73-61 90%     2 - 4 +0.7 -0.7 +2.1
  Nov 28, 2024 145   Utah Valley W 83-63 59%     3 - 4 +20.5 +27.4 -3.4
  Dec 04, 2024 210   @ Weber St. W 77-73 59%     4 - 4 +4.5 +13.4 -8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 180   Northern Colorado W 82-70 75%     5 - 4 +8.0 -2.7 +9.6
  Dec 10, 2024 68   @ Butler W 71-68 22%     6 - 4 +13.9 +13.5 +0.9
  Dec 15, 2024 293   Western Michigan W 98-62 88%     7 - 4 +25.9 +23.4 +4.0
  Dec 23, 2024 260   Cal St. Bakersfield W 94-60 85%     8 - 4 +25.7 +20.1 +6.5
  Jan 02, 2025 125   St. Thomas W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 04, 2025 294   Nebraska Omaha W 80-67 89%    
  Jan 09, 2025 284   @ Oral Roberts W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 319   @ Denver W 79-70 80%    
  Jan 16, 2025 222   UMKC W 76-67 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 236   @ South Dakota W 86-82 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 275   North Dakota W 82-70 87%    
  Jan 30, 2025 120   South Dakota St. W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 125   @ St. Thomas L 75-77 41%    
  Feb 06, 2025 222   @ UMKC W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 294   @ Nebraska Omaha W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 13, 2025 284   Oral Roberts W 82-69 87%    
  Feb 15, 2025 319   Denver W 82-67 91%    
  Feb 19, 2025 120   @ South Dakota St. L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 22, 2025 275   @ North Dakota W 79-73 71%    
  Feb 26, 2025 236   South Dakota W 89-79 82%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.4 7.7 12.3 10.4 5.2 1.3 39.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.9 9.2 9.5 4.1 0.6 27.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.7 7.1 5.1 1.3 0.1 17.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 4.9 8.8 13.1 16.9 18.4 16.5 10.9 5.2 1.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
15-1 100.0% 5.2    5.1 0.1
14-2 94.9% 10.4    8.8 1.5 0.0
13-3 74.6% 12.3    8.0 4.0 0.3
12-4 41.6% 7.7    3.2 3.5 0.9 0.1
11-5 14.1% 2.4    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 39.5% 39.5 26.8 10.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.3% 50.1% 49.8% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.6%
15-1 5.2% 49.3% 49.3% 12.0 0.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 2.6
14-2 10.9% 43.6% 43.6% 12.3 0.2 2.8 1.6 0.1 6.2
13-3 16.5% 37.0% 37.0% 12.7 0.0 2.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.4
12-4 18.4% 30.4% 30.4% 13.0 0.0 1.3 3.3 1.0 0.0 12.8
11-5 16.9% 24.9% 24.9% 13.3 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.4 0.1 12.7
10-6 13.1% 20.4% 20.4% 13.6 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 10.4
9-7 8.8% 16.5% 16.5% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.4
8-8 4.9% 12.3% 12.3% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 4.3
7-9 2.4% 9.6% 9.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
6-10 1.0% 5.6% 5.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-11 0.4% 5.1% 5.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
4-12 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-14
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 28.9% 28.9% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 9.2 12.1 5.3 1.0 0.1 71.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 11.0 0.3 1.2 5.2 11.7 57.4 24.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 1.2% 10.5 0.6 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%