North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#241
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#248
Pace64.7#305
Improvement-0.6#251

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#171
First Shot+1.1#135
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#232
Layup/Dunks-0.3#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#57
Freethrows-2.7#309
Improvement-1.7#349

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#314
First Shot-5.0#318
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#137
Layups/Dunks-3.3#285
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#102
Freethrows+2.5#60
Improvement+1.1#56
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 12.4% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 34.6% 56.1% 29.6%
.500 or above in Conference 54.3% 67.0% 51.3%
Conference Champion 10.1% 16.3% 8.6%
Last Place in Conference 13.1% 8.0% 14.2%
First Four2.3% 1.6% 2.4%
First Round7.7% 11.6% 6.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 19.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 74 - 10
Quad 49 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 171   Illinois St. L 68-77 49%     0 - 1 -12.7 -0.8 -12.6
  Nov 11, 2024 237   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 81-86 38%     0 - 2 -5.9 +16.0 -22.4
  Nov 13, 2024 99   @ Santa Clara W 88-80 OT 13%     1 - 2 +16.0 +10.0 +5.3
  Nov 18, 2024 134   @ Southern Illinois L 44-69 20%     1 - 3 -20.2 -21.9 -0.1
  Nov 26, 2024 127   @ Samford L 75-84 19%    
  Nov 27, 2024 353   West Georgia W 76-67 80%    
  Nov 28, 2024 136   Utah Valley L 67-73 31%    
  Dec 04, 2024 226   @ Weber St. L 67-71 36%    
  Dec 07, 2024 148   Northern Colorado L 73-75 43%    
  Dec 10, 2024 85   @ Butler L 66-80 10%    
  Dec 15, 2024 324   Western Michigan W 77-69 77%    
  Dec 23, 2024 237   Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 02, 2025 169   St. Thomas L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 04, 2025 260   Nebraska Omaha W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 09, 2025 265   @ Oral Roberts L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 11, 2025 297   @ Denver W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 16, 2025 217   UMKC W 70-68 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 238   @ South Dakota L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 251   North Dakota W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 30, 2025 152   South Dakota St. L 75-76 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 169   @ St. Thomas L 68-74 28%    
  Feb 06, 2025 217   @ UMKC L 67-71 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 260   @ Nebraska Omaha L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 13, 2025 265   Oral Roberts W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 297   Denver W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 152   @ South Dakota St. L 72-79 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 251   @ North Dakota L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 238   South Dakota W 77-74 60%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.0 3.1 2.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 10.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.0 4.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.8 4.9 1.3 0.1 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.8 5.2 1.4 0.1 13.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 4.3 5.5 1.2 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.7 4.5 5.5 1.2 0.1 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.1 4.6 1.6 0.1 11.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 3.4 3.7 1.4 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.6 2.1 0.8 0.1 7.8 9th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.7 6.4 9.4 11.5 12.3 13.6 12.3 11.0 7.5 5.1 3.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
14-2 93.4% 1.0    0.9 0.1
13-3 85.5% 2.7    2.0 0.6 0.0
12-4 61.5% 3.1    1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
11-5 26.5% 2.0    0.5 1.0 0.4 0.1
10-6 5.6% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 10.1% 10.1 5.8 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 42.4% 42.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.5% 43.5% 43.5% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
14-2 1.1% 32.8% 32.8% 13.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-3 3.2% 30.1% 30.1% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.2
12-4 5.1% 21.8% 21.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 4.0
11-5 7.5% 17.3% 17.3% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 6.2
10-6 11.0% 14.2% 14.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 9.4
9-7 12.3% 9.5% 9.5% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.6 11.1
8-8 13.6% 7.8% 7.8% 15.8 0.2 0.9 12.6
7-9 12.3% 5.1% 5.1% 15.9 0.0 0.6 11.6
6-10 11.5% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.2
5-11 9.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.3
4-12 6.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.3
3-13 3.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.7
2-14 1.8% 1.8
1-15 0.6% 0.6
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.9 3.6 91.2 0.0%