Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#277
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#122
Pace65.4#292
Improvement+0.1#157

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#251
First Shot-3.6#280
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#119
Layup/Dunks-3.2#284
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#18
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#143
Freethrows-5.6#355
Improvement-0.3#219

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#284
First Shot-2.8#271
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#212
Layups/Dunks-0.9#206
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#136
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#319
Freethrows+2.0#80
Improvement+0.4#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 5.9% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 36.9% 44.1% 20.8%
.500 or above in Conference 38.1% 42.5% 28.2%
Conference Champion 5.1% 6.1% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 20.0% 16.6% 27.5%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.8%
First Round4.5% 5.4% 2.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 69.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 410 - 813 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 67   @ Stanford L 64-90 6%     0 - 1 -14.7 +4.7 -23.1
  Nov 14, 2024 291   @ Pacific W 60-57 42%     1 - 1 -0.8 -10.5 +9.8
  Nov 22, 2024 308   Incarnate Word W 76-71 69%    
  Nov 26, 2024 301   Eastern Michigan W 68-66 56%    
  Nov 27, 2024 357   @ Houston Christian W 75-70 69%    
  Dec 04, 2024 250   @ Oral Roberts L 70-74 34%    
  Dec 07, 2024 249   South Dakota W 75-74 55%    
  Dec 14, 2024 238   @ Pepperdine L 69-74 32%    
  Dec 21, 2024 205   @ Southern Utah L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 02, 2025 236   Idaho St. W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 225   Weber St. W 68-67 50%    
  Jan 09, 2025 211   @ Montana L 67-73 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 155   @ Montana St. L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 16, 2025 307   Sacramento St. W 67-62 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 218   Portland St. L 76-77 50%    
  Jan 23, 2025 245   @ Eastern Washington L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 25, 2025 287   @ Idaho L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 173   @ Northern Colorado L 69-77 24%    
  Feb 03, 2025 225   @ Weber St. L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 06, 2025 155   Montana St. L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 211   Montana L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 13, 2025 218   @ Portland St. L 74-80 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 307   @ Sacramento St. L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 20, 2025 287   Idaho W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 245   Eastern Washington W 76-75 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 173   Northern Colorado L 72-74 43%    
  Mar 03, 2025 236   @ Idaho St. L 62-67 33%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 4.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.2 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.6 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.4 3.5 0.4 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.7 4.8 2.8 0.5 0.0 13.5 9th
10th 0.3 1.3 2.7 3.8 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 13.2 10th
Total 0.3 1.3 2.9 5.3 7.6 9.5 11.2 12.4 11.3 10.5 8.8 7.1 5.0 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 98.8% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 93.0% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 70.3% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 41.8% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 15.8% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 36.5% 36.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 36.0% 36.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.0% 32.5% 32.5% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
14-4 1.8% 25.1% 25.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3
13-5 3.2% 20.5% 20.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.6
12-6 5.0% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 4.2
11-7 7.1% 10.1% 10.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 6.4
10-8 8.8% 7.2% 7.2% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 8.2
9-9 10.5% 5.2% 5.2% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 10.0
8-10 11.3% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.0
7-11 12.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.2
6-12 11.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.1
5-13 9.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.5
4-14 7.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.6
3-15 5.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.3
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.8 95.0 0.0%