Northwestern
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#74
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#81
Pace61.7#349
Improvement-3.1#361

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#83
First Shot+1.2#135
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#61
Layup/Dunks+1.4#125
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#307
Freethrows+1.5#113
Improvement-0.8#306

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#68
First Shot+3.5#79
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#145
Layups/Dunks-0.9#202
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#51
Freethrows+0.7#140
Improvement-2.2#355
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 4.3% 4.6% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.3% 23.6% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.6% 22.8% 8.6%
Average Seed 8.5 8.5 8.9
.500 or above 51.5% 54.0% 25.2%
.500 or above in Conference 25.3% 26.4% 13.4%
Conference Champion 0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 15.9% 15.1% 25.1%
First Four4.2% 4.5% 1.7%
First Round20.0% 21.2% 7.9%
Second Round9.8% 10.4% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 3.0% 1.1%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.0% 0.3%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Home) - 91.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 10
Quad 24 - 47 - 14
Quad 34 - 111 - 15
Quad 45 - 015 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 283   Lehigh W 90-46 93%     1 - 0 +34.7 +15.4 +20.9
  Nov 09, 2024 64   @ Dayton L 66-71 36%     1 - 1 +6.5 +1.0 +5.4
  Nov 12, 2024 157   Illinois-Chicago W 83-74 84%     2 - 1 +6.1 +6.0 -0.2
  Nov 15, 2024 315   Eastern Illinois W 67-58 OT 95%     3 - 1 -2.4 -4.6 +2.9
  Nov 19, 2024 155   Montana St. W 72-69 84%     4 - 1 +0.2 +3.4 -3.0
  Nov 22, 2024 238   Pepperdine W 76-62 91%    
  Nov 28, 2024 85   Butler W 69-68 53%    
  Dec 03, 2024 41   @ Iowa L 70-77 27%    
  Dec 06, 2024 26   Illinois L 69-72 40%    
  Dec 15, 2024 106   Georgia Tech W 74-71 62%    
  Dec 21, 2024 111   DePaul W 72-65 73%    
  Dec 29, 2024 148   Northeastern W 73-63 82%    
  Jan 02, 2025 32   @ Penn St. L 68-76 24%    
  Jan 05, 2025 19   @ Purdue L 65-74 20%    
  Jan 12, 2025 35   Michigan St. L 66-67 46%    
  Jan 16, 2025 30   Maryland L 65-67 42%    
  Jan 19, 2025 24   @ Michigan L 64-73 22%    
  Jan 22, 2025 22   Indiana L 68-71 39%    
  Jan 26, 2025 26   @ Illinois L 66-75 22%    
  Jan 29, 2025 42   Rutgers L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 01, 2025 38   Wisconsin L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 04, 2025 78   USC W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 84   @ Washington L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 11, 2025 40   @ Oregon L 63-70 28%    
  Feb 16, 2025 65   Nebraska W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 20, 2025 20   @ Ohio St. L 61-70 21%    
  Feb 25, 2025 90   @ Minnesota L 61-62 46%    
  Feb 28, 2025 41   Iowa L 73-74 47%    
  Mar 03, 2025 28   UCLA L 62-64 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 30   @ Maryland L 62-70 24%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.2 0.6 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.3 2.3 1.4 0.1 4.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 3.0 0.6 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.2 1.7 0.1 5.5 10th
11th 0.2 2.1 3.4 0.5 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 4.1 1.8 0.1 7.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.3 3.5 0.5 7.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.2 1.4 0.1 8.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.4 2.8 0.3 9.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.1 3.3 0.8 0.0 10.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.7 3.2 1.1 0.1 10.6 17th
18th 0.2 1.1 2.3 2.9 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.6 18th
Total 0.2 1.1 2.8 5.2 8.0 10.4 11.9 12.5 12.1 10.5 8.6 6.5 4.6 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 90.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 84.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 63.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 32.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 11.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.9% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.6% 99.2% 8.3% 90.9% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
13-7 2.7% 96.9% 5.1% 91.8% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.7%
12-8 4.6% 90.6% 2.7% 87.9% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 90.3%
11-9 6.5% 75.5% 1.8% 73.7% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.0 1.6 75.1%
10-10 8.6% 54.1% 1.3% 52.7% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5 0.1 4.0 53.4%
9-11 10.5% 22.6% 0.6% 22.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.1 22.1%
8-12 12.1% 5.5% 0.3% 5.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 11.4 5.2%
7-13 12.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 0.4%
6-14 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 11.9 0.0%
5-15 10.4% 10.4
4-16 8.0% 8.0
3-17 5.2% 5.2
2-18 2.8% 2.8
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 22.3% 0.9% 21.4% 8.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.7 3.8 4.2 0.5 0.0 77.7 21.6%