Princeton
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#118
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#94
Pace69.1#175
Improvement+1.3#112

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#106
First Shot+3.9#76
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#261
Layup/Dunks+1.7#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#23
Freethrows-1.6#280
Improvement-0.8#233

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#167
First Shot-0.8#199
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#109
Layups/Dunks-0.6#189
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#244
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#190
Freethrows+0.2#167
Improvement+2.1#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.1% 25.7% 18.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 12.9
.500 or above 98.0% 99.2% 95.9%
.500 or above in Conference 88.8% 93.5% 80.0%
Conference Champion 27.7% 33.8% 16.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.5% 2.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round23.1% 25.7% 18.2%
Second Round2.5% 2.9% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Away) - 65.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 22 - 2
Quad 37 - 59 - 7
Quad 410 - 219 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 256   Iona W 81-80 85%     1 - 0 -7.5 +6.5 -14.0
  Nov 08, 2024 145   Duquesne W 75-68 57%     2 - 0 +7.8 +1.5 +6.1
  Nov 10, 2024 208   @ Northeastern W 79-76 57%     3 - 0 +3.9 +6.6 -2.7
  Nov 15, 2024 125   Loyola Chicago L 68-73 63%     3 - 1 -5.6 -5.3 -0.2
  Nov 17, 2024 198   @ Merrimack W 68-57 56%     4 - 1 +12.2 +11.0 +3.3
  Nov 21, 2024 178   Wright St. L 62-80 64%     4 - 2 -18.9 -10.5 -9.4
  Nov 22, 2024 158   Texas St. L 80-83 60%     4 - 3 -2.8 +10.4 -13.4
  Nov 24, 2024 304   Portland W 94-67 84%     5 - 3 +19.1 +10.8 +6.7
  Dec 03, 2024 96   @ Saint Joseph's W 77-69 30%     6 - 3 +16.2 +8.0 +8.0
  Dec 07, 2024 121   @ Furman L 63-69 39%     6 - 4 -0.4 -2.5 +1.8
  Dec 10, 2024 273   Monmouth W 71-67 86%     7 - 4 -5.1 -1.3 -3.5
  Dec 21, 2024 74   Rutgers W 83-82 33%     8 - 4 +8.3 +10.5 -2.2
  Dec 30, 2024 138   Akron W 76-75 67%     9 - 4 -0.8 -1.8 +1.0
  Jan 11, 2025 235   @ Harvard W 74-70 65%    
  Jan 18, 2025 278   @ Dartmouth W 78-72 73%    
  Jan 20, 2025 196   Columbia W 81-74 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 151   Cornell W 84-79 70%    
  Jan 31, 2025 91   Yale L 75-76 50%    
  Feb 01, 2025 189   Brown W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 07, 2025 292   @ Penn W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 14, 2025 189   @ Brown W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 91   @ Yale L 72-78 29%    
  Feb 21, 2025 235   Harvard W 77-67 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 278   @ Dartmouth W 78-72 72%    
  Feb 28, 2025 196   @ Columbia W 78-77 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 151   @ Cornell L 81-82 48%    
  Mar 08, 2025 292   Penn W 79-66 88%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 9 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 5.6 8.8 7.4 3.7 0.7 27.7 1st
2nd 0.2 3.0 9.9 10.8 4.8 0.7 29.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.6 8.2 6.8 1.5 0.0 19.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.8 3.5 0.4 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.5 0.2 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.4 0.1 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.1 6.1 11.2 15.0 18.6 18.0 13.6 8.1 3.7 0.7 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
13-1 100.0% 3.7    3.4 0.2
12-2 91.2% 7.4    6.0 1.4 0.0
11-3 64.5% 8.8    5.0 3.5 0.3
10-4 31.4% 5.6    1.9 2.6 1.0 0.1
9-5 8.0% 1.5    0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 27.7% 27.7 17.1 8.2 2.0 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.7% 61.8% 61.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3
13-1 3.7% 47.7% 47.7% 11.9 0.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 1.9
12-2 8.1% 42.6% 42.6% 12.2 0.3 2.2 0.9 0.0 4.6
11-3 13.6% 34.3% 34.3% 12.5 0.1 2.4 2.0 0.2 8.9
10-4 18.0% 28.8% 28.8% 12.9 1.5 3.0 0.7 0.0 12.8
9-5 18.6% 22.4% 22.4% 13.1 0.6 2.5 1.0 0.0 14.5
8-6 15.0% 17.8% 17.8% 13.4 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.1 12.3
7-7 11.2% 6.7% 6.7% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.4
6-8 6.1% 0.5% 0.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 6.1
5-9 3.1% 3.1
4-10 1.5% 1.5
3-11 0.3% 0.3
2-12 0.1% 0.1
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 23.1% 23.1% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 8.2 10.1 3.5 0.2 0.0 76.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.0 1.9 2.3 12.1 66.8 14.5 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%