Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#160
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#176
Pace74.8#49
Improvement-2.8#327

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#93
First Shot+4.2#72
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#259
Layup/Dunks-1.2#227
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#23
Freethrows-0.2#187
Improvement-2.1#318

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#277
First Shot-3.7#294
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#137
Layups/Dunks-2.1#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#315
Freethrows+1.8#60
Improvement-0.8#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 17.2% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 88.4% 92.3% 77.6%
.500 or above in Conference 86.5% 91.0% 74.3%
Conference Champion 15.6% 18.6% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round15.8% 17.1% 12.2%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Away) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 414 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 81   @ Central Florida L 68-75 17%     0 - 1 +3.2 -0.6 +4.1
  Nov 12, 2024 263   Bethune-Cookman W 91-69 79%     1 - 1 +13.6 +11.7 +0.7
  Nov 16, 2024 325   Southern Indiana W 93-74 87%     2 - 1 +6.7 +16.9 -9.8
  Nov 20, 2024 32   @ Penn St. L 89-102 8%     2 - 2 +2.7 +21.0 -18.0
  Nov 25, 2024 154   Drexel W 87-81 49%     3 - 2 +6.1 +22.1 -15.5
  Nov 26, 2024 214   Radford L 56-69 60%     3 - 3 -15.7 -14.7 -1.9
  Nov 30, 2024 356   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 77-57 82%     4 - 3 +10.0 +6.3 +5.2
  Dec 05, 2024 321   @ Detroit Mercy L 78-79 72%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -7.0 +4.6 -11.7
  Dec 08, 2024 256   Robert Morris W 82-77 78%     5 - 4 1 - 1 -3.2 -2.3 -1.5
  Dec 11, 2024 351   IU Indianapolis W 78-76 91%     6 - 4 2 - 1 -13.3 -1.3 -12.0
  Dec 15, 2024 305   @ Eastern Michigan W 121-94 68%     7 - 4 +22.1 +23.5 -6.2
  Dec 22, 2024 19   @ Michigan L 58-89 6%     7 - 5 -13.1 -6.2 -6.9
  Dec 29, 2024 329   @ Green Bay W 86-80 73%    
  Jan 01, 2025 205   @ Northern Kentucky L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 187   Youngstown St. W 78-74 66%    
  Jan 08, 2025 132   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-83 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 321   Detroit Mercy W 83-71 87%    
  Jan 15, 2025 168   @ Wright St. L 81-84 40%    
  Jan 22, 2025 183   @ Oakland L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 25, 2025 351   @ IU Indianapolis W 82-73 80%    
  Jan 30, 2025 218   Cleveland St. W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 02, 2025 132   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 81-86 33%    
  Feb 05, 2025 168   Wright St. W 84-81 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 329   Green Bay W 89-77 88%    
  Feb 12, 2025 187   @ Youngstown St. L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 256   @ Robert Morris W 79-77 57%    
  Feb 21, 2025 183   Oakland W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 27, 2025 205   Northern Kentucky W 76-71 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 218   @ Cleveland St. L 76-77 50%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.7 4.4 2.5 0.8 0.1 15.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.1 7.1 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.0 7.3 3.4 0.4 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.9 3.3 0.3 0.0 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.1 3.4 0.3 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.8 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.8 6.7 10.2 13.7 15.5 15.5 13.2 9.4 5.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 99.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
17-3 95.4% 2.5    2.2 0.3 0.0
16-4 81.3% 4.4    3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 50.5% 4.7    2.2 2.1 0.4 0.0
14-6 19.0% 2.5    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2
13-7 2.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.6% 15.6 9.2 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 52.9% 52.9% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.8% 43.2% 43.2% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5
17-3 2.6% 35.9% 35.9% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.7
16-4 5.5% 32.9% 32.9% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.7
15-5 9.4% 27.0% 27.0% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 6.8
14-6 13.2% 23.2% 23.2% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.0 0.0 10.2
13-7 15.5% 17.2% 17.2% 14.5 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.1 12.8
12-8 15.5% 12.4% 12.4% 14.7 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.2 13.6
11-9 13.7% 9.9% 9.9% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 12.3
10-10 10.2% 7.5% 7.5% 15.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 9.5
9-11 6.7% 4.6% 4.6% 15.5 0.1 0.2 6.4
8-12 3.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.7
7-13 1.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.9
6-14 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.6 2.8 6.0 5.4 1.1 84.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.8 27.0 67.6 5.4