Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#115
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#92
Pace71.2#116
Improvement-0.3#206

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#97
First Shot+1.7#122
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#109
Layup/Dunks-2.2#260
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#38
Freethrows-1.7#268
Improvement-0.4#235

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#150
First Shot+2.2#111
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#281
Layups/Dunks-0.7#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#205
Freethrows+2.9#48
Improvement+0.1#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 14.7% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.3 12.1 12.9
.500 or above 67.3% 74.6% 50.7%
.500 or above in Conference 75.7% 79.2% 67.6%
Conference Champion 14.9% 17.1% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 1.9% 3.9%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round13.1% 14.5% 9.7%
Second Round2.6% 3.0% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Neutral) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 21 - 32 - 8
Quad 36 - 48 - 12
Quad 49 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 39   @ Nevada L 75-91 15%     0 - 1 -1.6 +10.7 -12.5
  Nov 09, 2024 317   @ Tarleton St. W 91-62 80%     1 - 1 +23.5 +9.8 +11.4
  Nov 12, 2024 11   @ Baylor L 67-104 8%     1 - 2 -17.4 -1.3 -14.5
  Nov 17, 2024 290   @ Lamar W 85-72 76%     2 - 2 +9.2 +12.5 -2.8
  Nov 27, 2024 200   Appalachian St. W 73-68 70%    
  Nov 29, 2024 150   @ UNC Wilmington W 77-76 50%    
  Nov 30, 2024 189   Colgate W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 03, 2024 22   @ Indiana L 70-83 11%    
  Dec 07, 2024 266   Texas Southern W 79-67 86%    
  Dec 21, 2024 25   @ Pittsburgh L 68-81 12%    
  Jan 02, 2025 153   @ New Mexico St. W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 203   @ UTEP W 76-73 59%    
  Jan 09, 2025 81   Liberty L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 273   Florida International W 83-71 86%    
  Jan 16, 2025 160   @ Kennesaw St. W 84-83 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 184   @ Jacksonville St. W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 23, 2025 165   Middle Tennessee W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 122   Western Kentucky W 82-78 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 06, 2025 273   @ Florida International W 80-74 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 81   @ Liberty L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 13, 2025 184   Jacksonville St. W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 160   Kennesaw St. W 87-80 71%    
  Feb 20, 2025 122   @ Western Kentucky L 79-81 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 165   @ Middle Tennessee W 73-72 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 87   Louisiana Tech W 73-72 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 203   UTEP W 79-70 77%    
  Mar 08, 2025 153   New Mexico St. W 75-69 71%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.1 3.9 2.4 1.0 0.2 14.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 4.8 5.6 3.5 1.0 0.1 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.0 5.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.9 4.6 1.1 0.1 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.2 3.6 0.7 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 4.2 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.3 6.4 8.9 11.1 12.4 13.1 12.3 10.2 7.9 5.0 2.5 1.0 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 96.4% 2.4    2.2 0.2 0.0
15-3 78.9% 3.9    2.9 1.0 0.1
14-4 51.8% 4.1    2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 23.3% 2.4    0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1
12-6 5.8% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.9% 14.9 9.2 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 65.6% 48.9% 16.7% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 32.6%
17-1 1.0% 60.3% 50.2% 10.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 20.2%
16-2 2.5% 42.6% 38.0% 4.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.4 7.4%
15-3 5.0% 35.2% 33.4% 1.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.1 3.2 2.7%
14-4 7.9% 25.2% 25.0% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.9 0.3%
13-5 10.2% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 8.2 0.0%
12-6 12.3% 16.0% 16.0% 12.5 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.3
11-7 13.1% 10.6% 10.6% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 11.7
10-8 12.4% 8.1% 8.1% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.4
9-9 11.1% 5.7% 5.7% 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.5
8-10 8.9% 4.4% 4.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 8.5
7-11 6.4% 2.8% 2.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.2
6-12 4.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.2
5-13 2.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.3% 12.9% 0.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.9 5.7 3.0 1.0 0.6 0.4 86.7 0.4%