Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#132
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#221
Pace68.5#202
Improvement+2.2#17

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#187
First Shot+1.2#132
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#258
Layup/Dunks+7.1#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#320
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#308
Freethrows+1.5#111
Improvement-0.3#227

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#108
First Shot+4.6#56
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#313
Layups/Dunks-2.9#272
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#17
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#78
Freethrows+1.3#112
Improvement+2.5#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.7% 14.4% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.0 12.9
.500 or above 57.8% 81.4% 55.9%
.500 or above in Conference 66.1% 81.3% 64.8%
Conference Champion 9.6% 17.5% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 1.1% 3.3%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round8.7% 14.2% 8.2%
Second Round1.5% 3.3% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 7.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 68 - 13
Quad 48 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 112   College of Charleston L 80-90 43%     0 - 1 -6.2 -0.1 -5.0
  Nov 14, 2024 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 78-85 23%     0 - 2 +2.6 +6.6 -3.7
  Nov 18, 2024 241   North Dakota St. W 69-44 80%     1 - 2 +18.0 -4.5 +24.3
  Nov 22, 2024 19   @ Florida L 70-85 8%    
  Nov 25, 2024 87   Louisiana Tech L 66-71 33%    
  Nov 26, 2024 199   Eastern Kentucky W 75-71 64%    
  Dec 03, 2024 95   Bradley L 68-69 48%    
  Dec 07, 2024 322   Southern Indiana W 76-62 90%    
  Dec 14, 2024 238   @ Austin Peay W 69-66 60%    
  Dec 21, 2024 125   High Point W 75-73 58%    
  Dec 29, 2024 119   @ Northern Iowa L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 01, 2025 299   Evansville W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 05, 2025 173   @ Illinois St. L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 08, 2025 141   @ Belmont L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 11, 2025 167   Missouri St. W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 15, 2025 167   @ Missouri St. L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 119   Northern Iowa W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 22, 2025 111   Murray St. W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 156   @ Illinois-Chicago L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 28, 2025 276   @ Valparaiso W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 106   @ Drake L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 05, 2025 299   @ Evansville W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 156   Illinois-Chicago W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 12, 2025 95   @ Bradley L 65-72 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 141   Belmont W 77-74 62%    
  Feb 19, 2025 111   @ Murray St. L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 22, 2025 276   Valparaiso W 77-66 82%    
  Feb 25, 2025 173   Illinois St. W 70-64 68%    
  Mar 02, 2025 191   @ Indiana St. W 78-77 51%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 9.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.9 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.5 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.3 2.4 5.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 3.6 2.9 0.6 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 2.5 0.7 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.3 6.5 8.1 9.8 11.2 11.7 11.2 9.8 8.2 6.0 4.2 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 97.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1
17-3 88.2% 1.9    1.6 0.3 0.0
16-4 66.7% 2.8    1.8 0.9 0.1
15-5 35.8% 2.2    0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.1% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 5.8 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 69.0% 62.1% 6.9% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.2%
19-1 0.4% 49.0% 39.6% 9.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 15.6%
18-2 1.1% 36.1% 33.6% 2.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 3.8%
17-3 2.2% 33.5% 33.3% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 0.3%
16-4 4.2% 24.0% 23.8% 0.2% 12.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 3.2 0.2%
15-5 6.0% 22.7% 22.7% 12.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.7
14-6 8.2% 16.0% 16.0% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.9
13-7 9.8% 13.1% 13.1% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.5
12-8 11.2% 9.3% 9.3% 13.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.1
11-9 11.7% 5.1% 5.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.1
10-10 11.2% 3.3% 3.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.8
9-11 9.8% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.6
8-12 8.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.0
7-13 6.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.4
6-14 4.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.2
5-15 2.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.6
4-16 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.7% 8.7% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.3 91.3 0.1%