St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#44
Expected Predictive Rating+16.2#16
Pace61.2#352
Improvement+1.6#38

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#25
First Shot+5.0#55
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#55
Layup/Dunks+4.8#46
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#313
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#270
Freethrows+5.7#7
Improvement+1.2#41

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#80
First Shot+2.2#112
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#109
Layups/Dunks+3.8#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#107
Freethrows-0.6#218
Improvement+0.4#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.6% 4.7% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 10.4% 10.7% 1.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.1% 45.6% 23.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.1% 39.6% 19.2%
Average Seed 8.5 8.5 9.7
.500 or above 99.1% 99.3% 93.6%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 95.5% 87.6%
Conference Champion 9.2% 9.3% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four10.5% 10.5% 7.3%
First Round40.1% 40.7% 19.3%
Second Round22.3% 22.6% 9.7%
Sweet Sixteen8.3% 8.4% 2.8%
Elite Eight3.4% 3.5% 0.9%
Final Four1.4% 1.4% 0.4%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 97.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 26 - 7
Quad 37 - 113 - 8
Quad 410 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 134   Towson W 76-69 87%     1 - 0 +5.7 +9.2 -3.0
  Nov 07, 2024 168   Chattanooga W 86-74 91%     2 - 0 +8.4 +18.5 -8.9
  Nov 12, 2024 139   Akron W 87-68 87%     3 - 0 +17.5 +14.0 +3.4
  Nov 17, 2024 65   Nebraska W 77-74 60%     4 - 0 +11.4 +15.4 -3.7
  Nov 23, 2024 294   Cal Poly W 83-62 97%    
  Nov 28, 2024 78   USC W 73-69 63%    
  Dec 03, 2024 278   Texas San Antonio W 84-64 97%    
  Dec 07, 2024 54   @ Utah L 71-72 45%    
  Dec 15, 2024 43   Boise St. L 68-69 50%    
  Dec 19, 2024 230   Merrimack W 73-56 94%    
  Dec 22, 2024 45   Utah St. W 77-73 63%    
  Dec 28, 2024 291   Pacific W 80-59 97%    
  Jan 02, 2025 238   Pepperdine W 79-61 94%    
  Jan 04, 2025 289   @ Portland W 77-62 90%    
  Jan 07, 2025 152   Loyola Marymount W 74-60 88%    
  Jan 11, 2025 298   @ San Diego W 78-63 91%    
  Jan 18, 2025 238   @ Pepperdine W 76-64 84%    
  Jan 23, 2025 59   San Francisco W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 25, 2025 80   @ Washington St. W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 29, 2025 99   @ Santa Clara W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 1   Gonzaga L 72-80 24%    
  Feb 06, 2025 59   @ San Francisco L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 98   @ Oregon St. W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 11, 2025 99   Santa Clara W 77-68 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 80   Washington St. W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 19, 2025 289   Portland W 80-59 96%    
  Feb 22, 2025 1   @ Gonzaga L 69-83 11%    
  Feb 27, 2025 152   @ Loyola Marymount W 71-63 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 98   Oregon St. W 70-61 77%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.5 2.4 0.4 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.6 8.8 12.7 9.7 3.3 37.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.1 8.5 7.7 2.4 0.2 22.2 3rd
4th 0.4 2.7 5.9 3.9 0.7 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.3 1.3 0.1 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 5.1 8.5 11.8 15.3 17.3 15.8 12.0 6.8 2.4 0.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 2.4    1.8 0.7
16-2 51.2% 3.5    1.7 1.8 0.0
15-3 17.9% 2.1    0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 4.1% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 4.6 4.0 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 2.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.4% 99.4% 33.7% 65.6% 3.9 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
16-2 6.8% 95.6% 24.7% 71.0% 5.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 94.2%
15-3 12.0% 86.7% 18.6% 68.1% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.1 1.6 83.7%
14-4 15.8% 68.8% 12.9% 55.9% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.0 0.2 4.9 64.2%
13-5 17.3% 47.4% 8.2% 39.1% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.7 0.4 9.1 42.7%
12-6 15.3% 26.4% 5.4% 21.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.4 0.4 11.2 22.2%
11-7 11.8% 13.7% 3.7% 10.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.2 10.4%
10-8 8.5% 5.6% 1.9% 3.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 8.0 3.7%
9-9 5.1% 2.1% 1.0% 1.1% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0 1.1%
8-10 2.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.3%
7-11 1.3% 1.3
6-12 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 45.1% 9.9% 35.2% 8.5 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.5 4.2 5.5 8.0 11.9 1.6 0.0 54.9 39.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 69.2 23.1 7.7