St. Thomas
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#163
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#156
Pace67.1#251
Improvement-1.0#296

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#160
First Shot+0.8#148
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#184
Layup/Dunks+2.4#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#65
Freethrows-1.6#265
Improvement-0.3#232

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#203
First Shot-1.4#225
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#162
Layups/Dunks-1.1#211
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#124
Freethrows-1.5#263
Improvement-0.6#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.3% 25.2% 18.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.5
.500 or above 75.6% 84.3% 64.0%
.500 or above in Conference 81.4% 85.6% 75.8%
Conference Champion 31.4% 35.9% 25.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 2.5% 5.2%
First Four1.7% 1.1% 2.4%
First Round21.5% 24.7% 17.2%
Second Round1.7% 2.1% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Neutral) - 57.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 413 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 252   @ Green Bay W 90-76 55%     1 - 0 +12.4 +12.4 -0.4
  Nov 10, 2024 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-80 17%     1 - 1 +0.6 -2.0 +3.3
  Nov 17, 2024 53   @ Arizona St. L 66-81 12%     1 - 2 -2.7 +1.2 -4.1
  Nov 22, 2024 204   Wofford W 71-69 57%    
  Nov 23, 2024 218   Portland St. W 80-77 59%    
  Nov 24, 2024 210   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 75-76 47%    
  Dec 02, 2024 349   Chicago St. W 81-65 92%    
  Dec 04, 2024 173   @ Northern Colorado L 73-76 40%    
  Dec 07, 2024 211   Montana W 74-69 68%    
  Dec 13, 2024 319   Western Michigan W 78-67 85%    
  Dec 21, 2024 264   @ Bowling Green W 74-72 57%    
  Dec 29, 2024 198   @ UC Riverside L 71-73 45%    
  Jan 02, 2025 242   @ North Dakota St. W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 255   @ North Dakota W 73-72 56%    
  Jan 08, 2025 183   South Dakota St. W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 249   South Dakota W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 295   Denver W 80-70 80%    
  Jan 23, 2025 262   @ Nebraska Omaha W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 215   @ UMKC L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 29, 2025 250   Oral Roberts W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 242   North Dakota St. W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 06, 2025 183   @ South Dakota St. L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 295   @ Denver W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 262   Nebraska Omaha W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 19, 2025 249   @ South Dakota W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 22, 2025 250   @ Oral Roberts W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 27, 2025 255   North Dakota W 76-69 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 215   UMKC W 72-67 68%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 4.1 7.9 8.2 6.3 3.1 0.8 31.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 5.3 7.4 4.2 1.2 0.2 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.9 5.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.2 4.9 1.2 0.1 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.3 1.0 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 3.2 1.0 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.9 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.1 5.2 7.4 10.4 12.3 13.1 13.7 12.3 9.3 6.4 3.1 0.8 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
15-1 100.0% 3.1    3.1 0.0
14-2 97.6% 6.3    5.8 0.5 0.0
13-3 87.4% 8.2    6.5 1.6 0.0
12-4 64.1% 7.9    4.5 3.0 0.4 0.0
11-5 30.1% 4.1    1.2 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
10-6 7.5% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 31.4% 31.4 21.9 7.4 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.8% 63.1% 63.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-1 3.1% 54.6% 54.6% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 0.2%
14-2 6.4% 44.6% 44.6% 13.2 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.6
13-3 9.3% 38.4% 38.4% 13.7 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 5.8
12-4 12.3% 32.1% 32.1% 14.1 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.2 0.1 8.4
11-5 13.7% 24.1% 24.1% 14.6 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.4 10.4
10-6 13.1% 18.7% 18.7% 14.9 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 10.6
9-7 12.3% 14.4% 14.4% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 10.5
8-8 10.4% 10.6% 10.6% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 9.3
7-9 7.4% 8.6% 8.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 6.8
6-10 5.2% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 4.9
5-11 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 3.0
4-12 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-13 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.3% 22.3% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 6.3 5.8 3.4 77.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.3 3.2 6.5 16.1 6.5 3.2 9.7 38.7 16.1