St. Thomas
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#124
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#112
Pace69.6#162
Improvement+1.9#82

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#71
First Shot+7.5#25
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#343
Layup/Dunks+2.5#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#13
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement+1.8#78

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#221
First Shot-1.2#210
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#214
Layups/Dunks+1.6#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#207
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#242
Freethrows-1.8#303
Improvement+0.1#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.0% 31.3% 23.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 98.3%
Conference Champion 67.2% 71.4% 45.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round30.0% 31.3% 23.0%
Second Round2.7% 2.9% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Home) - 83.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 46 - 7
Quad 416 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 333   @ Green Bay W 90-76 83%     1 - 0 +6.6 +9.8 -3.6
  Nov 10, 2024 97   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-80 29%     1 - 1 -0.9 -1.3 +1.1
  Nov 17, 2024 56   @ Arizona St. L 66-81 18%     1 - 2 -2.6 +2.0 -4.9
  Nov 22, 2024 157   Wofford L 73-81 59%     1 - 3 -7.8 -0.6 -7.4
  Nov 23, 2024 254   Portland St. W 91-65 77%     2 - 3 +20.7 +15.8 +4.5
  Nov 24, 2024 160   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 65-69 48%     2 - 4 -0.9 -5.4 +4.5
  Dec 02, 2024 357   Chicago St. W 98-76 95%     3 - 4 +5.0 +8.6 -6.3
  Dec 04, 2024 174   @ Northern Colorado W 87-75 51%     4 - 4 +14.3 +17.4 -2.3
  Dec 07, 2024 187   Montana W 88-81 74%     5 - 4 +2.8 +10.2 -7.5
  Dec 13, 2024 303   Western Michigan W 77-71 89%     6 - 4 -4.9 +3.9 -8.4
  Dec 21, 2024 275   @ Bowling Green W 93-68 71%     7 - 4 +21.8 +7.5 +11.5
  Dec 29, 2024 190   @ UC Riverside L 79-81 OT 53%     7 - 5 -0.3 -1.0 +1.0
  Jan 02, 2025 134   @ North Dakota St. W 89-85 41%     8 - 5 1 - 0 +8.8 +18.6 -9.5
  Jan 04, 2025 271   @ North Dakota W 88-80 70%     9 - 5 2 - 0 +5.1 +7.3 -2.5
  Jan 08, 2025 117   South Dakota St. W 73-72 61%     10 - 5 3 - 0 +0.8 +6.2 -5.4
  Jan 11, 2025 250   South Dakota W 90-79 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 335   Denver W 85-69 93%    
  Jan 23, 2025 240   @ Nebraska Omaha W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 221   @ UMKC W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 29, 2025 312   Oral Roberts W 87-73 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 134   North Dakota St. W 81-77 64%    
  Feb 06, 2025 117   @ South Dakota St. L 76-79 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 335   @ Denver W 82-72 83%    
  Feb 15, 2025 240   Nebraska Omaha W 81-71 82%    
  Feb 19, 2025 250   @ South Dakota W 87-83 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 312   @ Oral Roberts W 84-76 76%    
  Feb 27, 2025 271   North Dakota W 86-74 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 221   UMKC W 76-67 79%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 13 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.6 11.0 19.5 19.3 11.3 3.3 67.2 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 7.2 7.5 3.1 0.4 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.1 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.1 6.7 12.7 19.1 22.6 19.7 11.3 3.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.3    3.3
15-1 100.0% 11.3    11.1 0.1
14-2 97.9% 19.3    17.4 1.9
13-3 86.4% 19.5    13.9 5.3 0.3
12-4 57.9% 11.0    5.0 4.8 1.2 0.1
11-5 20.4% 2.6    0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
10-6 3.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 67.2% 67.2 51.3 13.3 2.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.3% 50.1% 50.1% 11.8 0.5 1.0 0.1 1.6
15-1 11.3% 43.8% 43.8% 12.6 0.1 2.1 2.4 0.3 6.3
14-2 19.7% 35.8% 35.8% 13.1 0.0 1.4 3.8 1.8 0.1 12.7
13-3 22.6% 31.2% 31.2% 13.4 0.6 3.5 2.7 0.2 15.5
12-4 19.1% 26.0% 26.0% 13.8 0.1 1.5 2.6 0.8 0.0 14.1
11-5 12.7% 21.5% 21.5% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.0 10.0
10-6 6.7% 17.0% 17.0% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 5.6
9-7 3.1% 10.5% 10.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8
8-8 1.2% 10.4% 10.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
7-9 0.3% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-10 0.1% 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 30.0% 30.0% 0.0% 13.3 0.6 5.2 12.0 9.5 2.5 0.1 70.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 11.8 29.6 61.7 8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%