Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#318
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#281
Pace71.0#123
Improvement-0.1#192

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#335
First Shot-5.8#327
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#195
Layup/Dunks-6.9#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.1#353
Freethrows+4.1#19
Improvement-0.5#257

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#263
First Shot-2.6#268
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#198
Layups/Dunks+4.3#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#274
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#314
Freethrows-1.0#245
Improvement+0.4#131
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.3% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 14.5 15.5
.500 or above 0.9% 7.9% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 9.2% 24.9% 9.1%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.3% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 47.6% 31.9% 47.7%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan (Away) - 0.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 31 - 92 - 17
Quad 45 - 66 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 66   @ SMU L 62-96 4%     0 - 1 -22.6 -9.8 -11.0
  Nov 09, 2024 117   Sam Houston St. L 62-91 19%     0 - 2 -28.4 -16.6 -9.6
  Nov 12, 2024 81   @ Florida St. L 52-72 5%     0 - 3 -9.8 -16.0 +6.9
  Nov 17, 2024 11   @ Baylor L 41-104 1%     0 - 4 -43.3 -24.7 -18.0
  Nov 21, 2024 24   @ Michigan L 60-85 1%    
  Nov 29, 2024 247   Iona L 68-72 34%    
  Nov 30, 2024 134   Hofstra L 63-74 17%    
  Dec 01, 2024 191   Indiana St. L 75-82 25%    
  Dec 08, 2024 71   @ Central Florida L 62-82 4%    
  Dec 16, 2024 174   @ UTEP L 67-78 16%    
  Dec 18, 2024 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 65-83 5%    
  Dec 29, 2024 356   Florida A&M W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 04, 2025 166   Texas Arlington L 75-80 32%    
  Jan 09, 2025 208   @ Southern Utah L 69-79 20%    
  Jan 11, 2025 304   @ Utah Tech L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 16, 2025 209   California Baptist L 68-72 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 108   @ Grand Canyon L 65-81 8%    
  Jan 23, 2025 214   @ Abilene Christian L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 30, 2025 304   Utah Tech W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 208   Southern Utah L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 06, 2025 135   @ Seattle L 64-78 12%    
  Feb 08, 2025 136   @ Utah Valley L 62-76 12%    
  Feb 13, 2025 108   Grand Canyon L 68-78 20%    
  Feb 15, 2025 135   Seattle L 67-75 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 166   @ Texas Arlington L 72-83 16%    
  Feb 27, 2025 214   Abilene Christian L 70-73 39%    
  Mar 06, 2025 209   @ California Baptist L 65-75 20%    
  Mar 08, 2025 136   Utah Valley L 65-73 26%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 4 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.4 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.7 4.7 0.8 0.0 16.0 7th
8th 0.2 2.5 7.5 9.5 5.2 0.9 0.0 25.9 8th
9th 2.9 8.4 11.3 8.6 3.4 0.6 0.0 35.2 9th
Total 2.9 8.6 13.8 16.6 16.5 14.1 10.8 7.4 4.5 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 83.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-4 53.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
11-5 20.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 4.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 21.4% 21.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.2% 15.7% 15.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 0.6% 12.0% 12.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-6 1.3% 5.8% 5.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
9-7 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
8-8 4.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.4
7-9 7.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.4
6-10 10.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.8
5-11 14.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.1
4-12 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.4
3-13 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.6
2-14 13.8% 13.8
1-15 8.6% 8.6
0-16 2.9% 2.9
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%