Tulsa
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#147
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#214
Pace74.8#57
Improvement+0.1#165

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#120
First Shot+0.0#177
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#76
Layup/Dunks+2.4#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#259
Freethrows+1.5#112
Improvement-0.1#186

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#209
First Shot+2.0#116
After Offensive Rebounds-3.2#329
Layups/Dunks+3.1#87
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#140
Freethrows+0.5#150
Improvement+0.1#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.3% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.6
.500 or above 55.0% 60.9% 34.9%
.500 or above in Conference 41.9% 45.1% 31.0%
Conference Champion 2.1% 2.5% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 9.3% 7.9% 14.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round2.0% 2.3% 1.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 52 - 8
Quad 35 - 67 - 13
Quad 49 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 103-80 96%     1 - 0 +3.8 +10.8 -8.7
  Nov 13, 2024 250   Oral Roberts W 85-76 78%     2 - 0 +1.6 +8.2 -6.5
  Nov 16, 2024 162   @ Missouri St. L 106-111 3OT 42%     2 - 1 -2.2 +1.9 -2.5
  Nov 20, 2024 247   Arkansas Little Rock W 82-74 78%    
  Nov 23, 2024 105   @ Loyola Chicago L 73-80 27%    
  Nov 26, 2024 338   Detroit Mercy W 82-70 87%    
  Nov 27, 2024 223   Georgia St. W 79-75 64%    
  Dec 04, 2024 86   Oklahoma St. L 78-81 40%    
  Dec 07, 2024 275   Southern W 80-70 81%    
  Dec 14, 2024 71   Central Florida L 73-80 25%    
  Dec 21, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-59 99%    
  Jan 01, 2025 171   Rice W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 04, 2025 103   @ UAB L 75-82 27%    
  Jan 07, 2025 278   @ Texas San Antonio W 83-79 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 142   Charlotte W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 121   @ South Florida L 73-78 32%    
  Jan 21, 2025 145   East Carolina W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 26, 2025 94   Wichita St. L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 29, 2025 103   UAB L 78-79 47%    
  Feb 02, 2025 146   @ Tulane L 77-80 39%    
  Feb 05, 2025 33   @ Memphis L 75-89 11%    
  Feb 08, 2025 75   Florida Atlantic L 81-85 37%    
  Feb 12, 2025 113   @ Temple L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 278   Texas San Antonio W 86-76 80%    
  Feb 19, 2025 83   @ North Texas L 63-72 22%    
  Feb 22, 2025 171   @ Rice L 73-75 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 146   Tulane W 80-77 60%    
  Mar 04, 2025 113   Temple W 77-76 50%    
  Mar 09, 2025 94   @ Wichita St. L 73-81 25%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 3.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.0 4.1 0.7 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.2 1.2 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.2 2.3 0.2 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.7 3.0 0.3 0.0 10.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 8.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.4 13th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.6 6.4 9.0 11.0 12.5 13.1 11.8 10.0 7.9 5.4 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 86.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1
15-3 62.8% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 34.8% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 65.5% 31.0% 34.5% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
16-2 0.3% 26.2% 18.5% 7.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.4%
15-3 0.9% 18.2% 15.4% 2.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 3.3%
14-4 2.0% 12.1% 12.0% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.1%
13-5 3.6% 9.1% 9.1% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.2
12-6 5.4% 5.7% 5.7% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.1
11-7 7.9% 3.9% 3.9% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.6
10-8 10.0% 2.1% 2.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.8
9-9 11.8% 1.3% 1.3% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.7
8-10 13.1% 0.7% 0.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.0
7-11 12.5% 0.3% 0.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4
6-12 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0
5-13 9.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 8.9
4-14 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.4
3-15 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.0 0.1%