UNLV
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.4#97
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#152
Pace66.6#265
Improvement-0.2#196

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#72
First Shot+2.1#108
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#85
Layup/Dunks+2.6#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#196
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#303
Freethrows+4.2#21
Improvement-1.3#338

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#128
First Shot-0.1#183
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#80
Layups/Dunks+0.8#148
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#254
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#220
Freethrows+1.2#116
Improvement+1.0#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 9.0% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.2% 3.6% 1.0%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 11.3
.500 or above 72.9% 76.4% 48.6%
.500 or above in Conference 67.4% 69.5% 53.0%
Conference Champion 5.3% 5.7% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.7% 1.9%
First Four1.2% 1.3% 0.6%
First Round7.7% 8.3% 3.7%
Second Round2.8% 3.1% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Home) - 87.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 7
Quad 23 - 44 - 11
Quad 34 - 28 - 13
Quad 410 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 282   Alabama St. W 93-79 91%     1 - 0 +4.8 +17.6 -12.8
  Nov 09, 2024 33   Memphis L 74-80 36%     1 - 1 +3.1 +3.8 -0.6
  Nov 14, 2024 262   Nebraska Omaha W 80-69 89%     2 - 1 +2.8 -0.9 +3.3
  Nov 20, 2024 238   Pepperdine W 79-67 87%    
  Nov 23, 2024 153   New Mexico St. W 74-66 78%    
  Nov 28, 2024 29   Mississippi St. L 69-77 24%    
  Dec 07, 2024 17   @ Creighton L 67-79 14%    
  Dec 14, 2024 291   Pacific W 79-64 91%    
  Dec 17, 2024 64   @ Dayton L 67-73 29%    
  Dec 21, 2024 198   UC Riverside W 77-67 82%    
  Dec 28, 2024 253   Fresno St. W 81-68 87%    
  Dec 31, 2024 292   @ Air Force W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 04, 2025 251   San Jose St. W 76-63 87%    
  Jan 07, 2025 43   @ Boise St. L 66-75 22%    
  Jan 11, 2025 102   @ Colorado St. L 68-70 41%    
  Jan 15, 2025 45   Utah St. L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 18, 2025 62   @ San Diego St. L 64-70 29%    
  Jan 21, 2025 185   Wyoming W 77-67 80%    
  Jan 25, 2025 63   New Mexico L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 29, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 73-81 26%    
  Feb 01, 2025 39   @ Nevada L 65-74 22%    
  Feb 04, 2025 43   Boise St. L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 185   @ Wyoming W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 11, 2025 292   Air Force W 74-59 91%    
  Feb 15, 2025 253   @ Fresno St. W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 102   Colorado St. W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 25, 2025 251   @ San Jose St. W 73-66 73%    
  Feb 28, 2025 39   Nevada L 68-71 40%    
  Mar 04, 2025 62   San Diego St. L 67-68 49%    
  Mar 07, 2025 63   @ New Mexico L 75-81 30%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 5.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.5 4.7 1.5 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 2.5 5.6 5.2 1.6 0.1 15.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.0 6.4 5.0 1.4 0.0 18.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.9 5.4 3.1 0.8 0.0 16.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.9 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 3.7 5.9 8.5 10.8 12.4 12.9 12.2 10.2 8.1 5.5 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 95.8% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
17-3 80.9% 1.5    1.0 0.4 0.0
16-4 48.6% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 18.0% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
14-6 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 93.9% 42.9% 51.0% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.3%
18-2 0.7% 82.7% 32.0% 50.7% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 74.6%
17-3 1.8% 65.1% 25.2% 40.0% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 53.4%
16-4 3.3% 45.5% 21.3% 24.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.8 30.7%
15-5 5.5% 25.1% 14.8% 10.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.1 12.1%
14-6 8.1% 14.4% 10.5% 3.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 7.0 4.3%
13-7 10.2% 7.5% 6.5% 1.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 9.4 1.1%
12-8 12.2% 5.0% 4.7% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 11.6 0.3%
11-9 12.9% 3.1% 3.0% 0.0% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 12.5 0.0%
10-10 12.4% 2.0% 1.9% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.0%
9-11 10.8% 1.2% 1.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.7
8-12 8.5% 0.6% 0.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4
7-13 5.9% 0.5% 0.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
6-14 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.7
5-15 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-16 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.4% 5.3% 3.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 3.2 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 91.7 3.2%