Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#136
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#223
Pace69.0#186
Improvement-1.4#314

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#208
First Shot+0.1#174
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#248
Layup/Dunks-7.3#352
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#92
Freethrows+4.5#14
Improvement-0.4#245

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#90
First Shot+4.2#65
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#268
Layups/Dunks-3.2#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#60
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.2#6
Freethrows-4.7#350
Improvement-1.0#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 25.3% 16.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.0 13.6
.500 or above 73.6% 87.6% 67.3%
.500 or above in Conference 80.9% 87.9% 77.7%
Conference Champion 24.3% 32.0% 20.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.1% 2.7%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round19.2% 25.2% 16.5%
Second Round2.5% 3.9% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 31.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 66 - 9
Quad 411 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 174   UTEP W 89-60 70%     1 - 0 +25.2 +7.5 +15.1
  Nov 14, 2024 253   @ North Dakota L 71-77 63%     1 - 1 -7.7 -3.3 -4.4
  Nov 22, 2024 111   @ Murray St. L 65-70 31%    
  Nov 26, 2024 353   West Georgia W 77-62 92%    
  Nov 27, 2024 127   @ Samford L 76-80 37%    
  Nov 28, 2024 241   North Dakota St. W 73-67 70%    
  Dec 03, 2024 76   @ Stanford L 65-74 20%    
  Dec 07, 2024 126   @ James Madison L 70-74 37%    
  Dec 11, 2024 253   North Dakota W 75-66 80%    
  Dec 14, 2024 183   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-66 50%    
  Dec 18, 2024 232   @ Idaho St. W 65-63 58%    
  Dec 21, 2024 227   @ Weber St. W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 04, 2025 214   Abilene Christian W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 09, 2025 108   Grand Canyon W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 209   California Baptist W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 16, 2025 166   @ Texas Arlington L 75-76 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 304   Utah Tech W 78-65 86%    
  Jan 23, 2025 209   @ California Baptist W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 135   @ Seattle L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 108   @ Grand Canyon L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 06, 2025 166   Texas Arlington W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 318   Tarleton St. W 76-62 88%    
  Feb 15, 2025 208   @ Southern Utah W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 20, 2025 304   @ Utah Tech W 75-68 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 135   Seattle W 71-68 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 208   Southern Utah W 76-69 72%    
  Mar 06, 2025 214   @ Abilene Christian W 70-69 55%    
  Mar 08, 2025 318   @ Tarleton St. W 73-65 74%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.7 7.2 5.4 2.8 0.7 24.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.2 5.9 2.1 0.3 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.2 7.1 4.0 0.7 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.9 2.4 0.3 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.7 1.8 0.2 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.3 1.2 0.1 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.2 0.7 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.3 5.2 7.9 10.2 12.5 13.8 13.7 12.2 9.3 5.7 2.8 0.7 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-1 100.0% 2.8    2.7 0.1
14-2 95.3% 5.4    4.7 0.7 0.0
13-3 77.4% 7.2    4.9 2.2 0.2 0.0
12-4 46.3% 5.7    2.4 2.5 0.7 0.0
11-5 15.9% 2.2    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
10-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 24.3% 24.3 15.9 6.5 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.7% 65.5% 65.2% 0.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.0%
15-1 2.8% 53.8% 53.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-2 5.7% 49.0% 49.0% 12.6 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.9
13-3 9.3% 41.2% 41.2% 13.0 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.5
12-4 12.2% 31.4% 31.4% 13.4 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 8.4
11-5 13.7% 23.0% 23.0% 13.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 10.5
10-6 13.8% 14.1% 14.1% 14.2 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 11.8
9-7 12.5% 8.5% 8.5% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 11.4
8-8 10.2% 4.7% 4.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.8
7-9 7.9% 2.6% 2.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.7
6-10 5.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.1
5-11 3.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.3
4-12 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-13 0.8% 0.8
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 4.0 6.4 5.0 2.5 0.8 80.6 0.0%