Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#154
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#187
Pace69.5#162
Improvement-1.3#269

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#98
First Shot+8.1#16
After Offensive Rebound-5.2#361
Layup/Dunks-0.3#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#15
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#26
Freethrows-1.7#281
Improvement+0.3#148

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#265
First Shot-3.3#289
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#145
Layups/Dunks-3.7#310
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#98
Freethrows+1.2#99
Improvement-1.6#304
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.3% 17.6% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 84.5% 89.2% 72.9%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 87.2% 81.0%
Conference Champion 12.3% 13.6% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round16.2% 17.5% 12.9%
Second Round1.1% 1.3% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 71.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 35 - 65 - 9
Quad 413 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 9   @ Kentucky L 62-103 4%     0 - 1 -20.7 -7.2 -11.1
  Nov 09, 2024 209   @ Miami (OH) W 81-68 48%     1 - 1 +13.7 +7.9 +5.6
  Nov 13, 2024 211   @ Toledo L 77-86 48%     1 - 2 -8.5 -1.3 -6.9
  Nov 21, 2024 117   Princeton W 80-62 40%     2 - 2 +20.8 +11.2 +10.6
  Nov 22, 2024 79   Bradley L 74-77 25%     2 - 3 +4.1 +13.4 -9.7
  Nov 24, 2024 180   South Florida L 72-73 54%     2 - 4 -2.0 -0.7 -1.4
  Nov 30, 2024 271   Air Force W 70-57 80%     3 - 4 +4.2 +1.5 +4.2
  Dec 05, 2024 206   @ Oakland L 64-66 47%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -1.1 +0.3 -1.7
  Dec 07, 2024 323   @ Detroit Mercy W 80-72 72%     4 - 5 1 - 1 +1.9 +8.6 -6.3
  Dec 11, 2024 190   Marshall W 88-79 67%     5 - 5 +4.7 +7.4 -3.4
  Dec 18, 2024 195   Youngstown St. L 70-80 67%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -14.5 -1.7 -12.9
  Dec 21, 2024 317   @ Eastern Michigan W 79-73 71%    
  Dec 29, 2024 224   @ Cleveland St. W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 02, 2025 333   Green Bay W 86-73 89%    
  Jan 09, 2025 206   Oakland W 73-68 69%    
  Jan 12, 2025 259   @ Robert Morris W 75-73 59%    
  Jan 15, 2025 144   Purdue Fort Wayne W 84-81 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 214   @ Northern Kentucky L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 22, 2025 137   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 81-79 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 323   Detroit Mercy W 80-68 87%    
  Jan 30, 2025 195   @ Youngstown St. L 73-74 44%    
  Feb 02, 2025 259   Robert Morris W 78-70 78%    
  Feb 05, 2025 144   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 81-84 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 354   IU Indianapolis W 83-67 93%    
  Feb 14, 2025 137   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 78-82 35%    
  Feb 16, 2025 333   @ Green Bay W 83-76 75%    
  Feb 21, 2025 214   Northern Kentucky W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 27, 2025 224   Cleveland St. W 77-71 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 354   @ IU Indianapolis W 80-70 81%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.2 3.6 1.5 0.3 12.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.9 6.6 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.9 7.5 3.7 0.5 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.6 7.4 3.9 0.4 0.0 15.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.4 3.8 0.4 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.2 3.4 0.4 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.1 7.2 10.9 14.3 16.1 16.1 13.1 8.6 4.5 1.6 0.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 99.3% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 94.4% 1.5    1.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 80.0% 3.6    2.5 1.0 0.1
15-5 48.7% 4.2    1.8 1.9 0.5 0.0
14-6 18.0% 2.4    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 6.3 4.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.3% 43.0% 43.0% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.6% 42.4% 42.4% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.9
16-4 4.5% 35.6% 35.6% 13.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.9
15-5 8.6% 29.7% 29.7% 13.6 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.2 6.1
14-6 13.1% 23.8% 23.8% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.8 0.0 9.9
13-7 16.1% 18.7% 18.7% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.1 13.1
12-8 16.1% 13.9% 13.9% 14.7 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.2 13.8
11-9 14.3% 11.3% 11.3% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 12.7
10-10 10.9% 6.9% 6.9% 15.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 10.2
9-11 7.2% 5.9% 5.9% 15.7 0.1 0.3 6.8
8-12 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.0
7-13 2.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 1.9
6-14 0.9% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 14.2 0.1 0.6 3.1 5.9 5.2 1.5 83.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.6 46.3 48.1 5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%