Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.1 #175
Expected Predictive Rating +2.1 #127
Pace 71.8 #97
Improvement -0.3 #199

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #236 D C C+ C C
Defense #129 D+ B+ B C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #176 1.03 #324 -2.4 #268
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #171 0.76 #168 +0.2 #165
Three Pointers 40% #197 0.92 #294 -2.1 #257
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #311 -4.4 #311
Freethrows 0.29 #214 73% #171 0.21 #195
Second Chance 28.9% #236 1.13 #57 0.33 #141
Turnovers 16.2% #146
Total Offense -2.4 #236

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #195 1.26 #304 -1.8 #237
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #178 0.76 #195 -0.1 #194
Three Pointers 41% #176 1.05 #230 -0.8 #223
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #271 -2.7 #271
Freethrows 0.30 #173 68% #16 0.20 #107
Second Chance 30.4% #166 0.75 #4 0.23 #18
Turnovers 19.0% #55
Total Defense +1.3 #129

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #197 0.0% #168
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.6% #321 5.2% #282
Possession Length 16.9 #128 16.6 #81
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #84 0.20 #280
Improvement +2.6 #60 -3.0 #325

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.5% 29.3% 22.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 73.7% 86.8% 53.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round26.5% 29.3% 22.1%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 61.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 417 - 220 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 350 @Air Force W 74 - 54 78% +10  1 - 0 +11 -2 C+ D F +12 C B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 111 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 23% -5  1 - 1 -7 -11 F C F +4 C A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 312 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 68% +3  2 - 1 +0 -12 F C- F+ +12 C A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 59 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 11% -7  2 - 2 +5 +1 D- B- C+ +4 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 69 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 13% +2  2 - 3 +2 +5 B- C- B+ -3 F+ A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 308 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 84% +7  3 - 3 +6 +6 A- B- B +1 B+ A- F
 Wed, Dec 3 145 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 31% -3  3 - 4 -8 +9 A F C+ -16 F C- D+
 Sun, Dec 7 181 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 40% -0  3 - 5 -12 -20 F D C +9 B+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 12 131 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 50% +6  4 - 5 -0 +2 C F+ A -2 D+ A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 1 351 North Florida W 102 - 83 91% +8  5 - 5 1 - 0 +3 +5 F A+ A+ -3 D+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 295 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 82% +2  6 - 5 2 - 0 -8 -4 F D A -3 F D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 223 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 47% +3  7 - 5 3 - 0 +11 +9 D+ A+ B- +2 C- B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 329 @Stetson W 81 - 69 73% +7  8 - 5 4 - 0 +5 +4 F+ B- A+ +0 C+ D C+
 Thu, Jan 15 265 Eastern Kentucky W 74 - 72 77% +1  9 - 5 5 - 0 -7 +2 D- A C- -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 178 @Lipscomb L 78 - 82 39% -2  9 - 6 5 - 1 -2 +1 D+ C D+ -3 D- A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 223 Florida Gulf Coast W 83 - 62 70% +12  10 - 6 6 - 1 +15 +9 C B+ A+ +6 C B A+
 Fri, Jan 23 329 Stetson W 73 - 65 87% +0  11 - 6 7 - 1 -5 -3 F A+ D -2 C- A C-
 Wed, Jan 28 265 @Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 82 57% +10  12 - 6 8 - 1 +5 +8 B+ C+ F -3 B+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 31 325 @West Georgia W 81 - 78 72% +6  13 - 6 9 - 1 -4 -1 F F+ C+ -3 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 178 Lipscomb W 77 - 74 61%
 Sat, Feb 7 326 North Alabama W 79 - 67 88%
 Wed, Feb 11 208 @Queens L 79 - 80 46%
 Sat, Feb 14 305 Bellarmine W 82 - 72 83%
 Thu, Feb 19 351 @North Florida W 89 - 81 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 295 @Jacksonville W 70 - 66 63%
 Wed, Feb 25 219 Central Arkansas W 77 - 72 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 305 @Bellarmine W 79 - 75 66%
Totals 19 - 8 15 - 3 -1 -2 D C C+ +1 D+ B+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.7 16.6 27.4 19.2 6.6 73.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 7.9 6.6 0.9 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.1 0.3 7.1 3rd
4th 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.8 14.9 23.4 28.2 19.2 6.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 6.6    6.6
16-2 100.0% 19.2    18.8 0.4
15-3 97.0% 27.4    21.7 5.5 0.2
14-4 70.8% 16.6    7.0 7.6 1.8 0.1
13-5 25.2% 3.7    0.4 1.6 1.4 0.3
12-6 3.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 73.7% 73.7 54.6 15.2 3.5 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 6.6% 39.5% 39.5% 13.1 0.4 1.6 0.6 0.0 4.0
16-2 19.2% 32.1% 32.1% 14.0 0.1 1.2 3.7 1.2 13.1
15-3 28.2% 28.6% 28.6% 14.4 0.0 0.4 3.8 3.7 0.1 20.1
14-4 23.4% 23.9% 23.9% 14.7 0.1 1.9 3.2 0.4 17.8
13-5 14.9% 19.9% 19.9% 14.9 0.6 2.1 0.3 11.9
12-6 5.8% 15.0% 15.0% 15.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 5.0
11-7 1.6% 13.8% 13.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3
10-8 0.3% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.5% 26.5% 0.0% 14.3 73.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 13.1 14.8 62.3 22.2 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%