Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#302
Expected Predictive Rating-6.8#282
Pace63.0#324
Improvement-4.8#348

Offense
Total Offense-7.4#345
First Shot-6.7#340
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#238
Layup/Dunks-2.3#267
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#256
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#290
Freethrows+0.4#152
Improvement-2.8#321

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#192
First Shot-0.3#189
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#210
Layups/Dunks-5.1#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#15
Freethrows-2.6#339
Improvement-2.0#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.2% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.6% 3.0% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 21.1% 33.1% 11.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 2.6% 9.5%
First Four0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 32 - 73 - 12
Quad 48 - 810 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 81   @ Butler W 68-66 6%     1 - 0 +11.8 +4.0 +8.0
  Nov 11, 2024 169   Chattanooga W 67-61 33%     2 - 0 +2.7 -6.0 +9.2
  Nov 17, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 68-103 1%     2 - 1 -13.1 +6.7 -18.9
  Nov 20, 2024 266   @ Morehead St. L 58-63 31%     2 - 2 -7.7 -7.2 -1.2
  Nov 26, 2024 278   Georgia St. W 62-50 44%     3 - 2 +5.6 -5.5 +12.7
  Nov 27, 2024 194   Texas Arlington L 58-68 27%     3 - 3 -11.5 -10.6 -2.0
  Nov 30, 2024 154   @ East Tennessee St. L 57-79 15%     3 - 4 -18.6 -11.5 -8.4
  Dec 08, 2024 105   @ Samford L 47-72 9%     3 - 5 -18.2 -22.5 +2.3
  Dec 14, 2024 239   Southern Illinois L 60-65 47%     3 - 6 -12.1 -10.2 -2.4
  Dec 18, 2024 142   @ Ohio L 58-78 13%     3 - 7 -15.8 -12.5 -3.5
  Dec 21, 2024 51   @ Vanderbilt L 55-85 3%     3 - 8 -16.6 -14.2 -1.3
  Jan 02, 2025 243   @ North Florida W 97-89 27%     4 - 8 1 - 0 +6.5 +13.3 -7.3
  Jan 04, 2025 182   @ Jacksonville L 44-68 17%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -22.0 -24.4 +1.8
  Jan 09, 2025 347   West Georgia L 68-72 75%     4 - 10 1 - 2 -19.0 -13.4 -5.6
  Jan 11, 2025 225   Queens L 60-67 45%     4 - 11 1 - 3 -13.6 -14.6 +0.6
  Jan 16, 2025 237   Eastern Kentucky L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 18, 2025 96   @ Lipscomb L 58-74 7%    
  Jan 23, 2025 343   @ Central Arkansas W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 156   @ North Alabama L 62-73 15%    
  Jan 30, 2025 351   Bellarmine W 71-63 77%    
  Feb 01, 2025 237   @ Eastern Kentucky L 65-72 26%    
  Feb 05, 2025 156   North Alabama L 65-70 31%    
  Feb 08, 2025 343   Central Arkansas W 67-61 73%    
  Feb 13, 2025 181   Florida Gulf Coast L 62-66 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 334   Stetson W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 18, 2025 351   @ Bellarmine W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 20, 2025 225   @ Queens L 67-74 25%    
  Feb 24, 2025 96   Lipscomb L 61-71 19%    
  Feb 26, 2025 347   @ West Georgia W 66-65 55%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 0.9 0.1 4.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.8 2.5 0.3 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.4 8.2 4.5 0.6 0.0 18.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 6.9 11.0 5.1 0.9 0.0 25.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 5.4 8.3 3.6 0.5 0.0 18.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.6 5.5 2.1 0.2 11.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 2.8 1.2 0.1 6.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.3 7.7 13.3 18.0 19.5 16.3 11.4 6.1 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 12.5% 0.0    0.0
13-5 2.7% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 1.8% 1.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-7 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.4
10-8 6.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.9
9-9 11.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.2
8-10 16.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 16.1
7-11 19.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 19.4
6-12 18.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.9
5-13 13.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.3
4-14 7.7% 7.7
3-15 3.3% 3.3
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%