Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.8 #186
Expected Predictive Rating +1.4 #145
Pace 71.3 #119
Improvement -1.0 #236

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #266 D C- B- D B-
Defense #118 C A- B+ B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #120 1.04 #303 -1.0 #219
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #246 0.67 #284 -2.0 #275
Three Pointers 42% #162 0.92 #285 -1.3 #231
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #299 -4.3 #299
Freethrows 15.7 #274 69% #292 10.7 #285
Second Chance 29.4% #228 1.04 #190 0.31 #210
Turnovers 15.3% #98
Total Offense -3.3 #266

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #252 1.21 #239 +0.6 #156
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #160 0.75 #178 -0.2 #201
Three Pointers 43% #125 1.03 #201 -1.3 #230
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #211 -0.9 #211
Freethrows 17.8 #204 64% #3 11.4 #263
Second Chance 28.8% #110 0.83 #10 0.24 #28
Turnovers 19.4% #51
Total Defense +1.5 #118

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #105 -0.5% #123
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.6% #322 2.3% #226
Possession Length 17.0 #154 16.6 #71
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #113 0.20 #263
Improvement +1.5 #85 -2.5 #324

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.9% 22.1% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 93.7% 96.2% 86.5%
.500 or above in Conference 96.9% 98.4% 92.7%
Conference Champion 39.8% 45.5% 23.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.8% 0.6% 1.5%
First Round20.5% 21.7% 17.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Away) - 74.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 415 - 418 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 334 @Air Force W 74 - 54 72%  +10  1 - 0 +12 -1 B- F F +13 C A A+
 Tue, Nov 11 95 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 16%  -5  1 - 1 -5 -9 F C F +5 B- A+ A
 Sat, Nov 15 284 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 58%  +3  2 - 1 +2 -11 F C- F +13 C+ A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 18 71 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 12%  -7  2 - 2 +4 -0 F B C+ +4 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 81 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 14%  +2  2 - 3 +1 +6 B+ D+ A -5 F A+ B+
 Tue, Nov 25 325 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 86%  +7  3 - 3 +5 +4 A C B+ +2 A- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 138 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 28%  -3  3 - 4 -8 +8 B+ F B -15 F C D+
 Sun, Dec 7 220 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 44%  -0  3 - 5 -13 -21 F F C +8 A F A+
 Fri, Dec 12 128 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 47%  +6  4 - 5 -0 +2 C F A+ -2 D+ A+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 350 North Florida W 102 - 83 90%  +8  5 - 5 1 - 0 +3 +7 F A+ A+ -6 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 328 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 86%  +2  6 - 5 2 - 0 -10 -6 F D- A -4 F D A+
 Thu, Jan 8 189 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 39%  +3  7 - 5 3 - 0 +12 +8 D A+ B +4 C B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 337 @Stetson W 77 - 70 74% 
 Thu, Jan 15 254 Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 72 73% 
 Sat, Jan 17 177 @Lipscomb L 73 - 76 38% 
 Thu, Jan 22 189 Florida Gulf Coast W 77 - 74 61% 
 Sat, Jan 24 337 Stetson W 80 - 67 88% 
 Wed, Jan 28 254 @Eastern Kentucky W 76 - 75 52% 
 Sat, Jan 31 297 @West Georgia W 75 - 72 61% 
 Thu, Feb 5 177 Lipscomb W 76 - 73 59% 
 Sat, Feb 7 293 North Alabama W 75 - 66 79% 
 Wed, Feb 11 207 @Queens L 78 - 80 42% 
 Sat, Feb 14 280 Bellarmine W 79 - 71 77% 
 Thu, Feb 19 350 @North Florida W 85 - 77 78% 
 Sat, Feb 21 328 @Jacksonville W 71 - 65 70% 
 Wed, Feb 25 261 Central Arkansas W 77 - 70 74% 
 Sat, Feb 28 280 @Bellarmine W 76 - 74 57% 
Totals 17 - 10 13 - 5 -2 -3 D C- B- +2 C A- B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 5.7 10.9 11.2 7.1 3.1 0.6 39.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 6.3 8.9 5.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.2 6.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 4.6 1.9 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.3 1.7 0.2 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.3 0.1 3.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.2 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.2 7.6 11.8 16.1 17.3 16.4 12.5 7.2 3.1 0.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.5% 3.1    3.1 0.0
16-2 98.5% 7.1    6.7 0.4
15-3 89.2% 11.2    8.8 2.2 0.1
14-4 66.2% 10.9    5.8 4.2 0.8 0.0
13-5 32.9% 5.7    1.6 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 7.9% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.8% 39.8 26.7 9.8 2.8 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 39.3% 39.3% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4
17-1 3.1% 36.8% 36.8% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 2.0
16-2 7.2% 36.1% 36.1% 13.9 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 4.6
15-3 12.5% 30.6% 30.6% 14.3 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.5 0.1 8.7
14-4 16.4% 26.2% 26.2% 14.7 0.2 1.4 2.5 0.3 12.1
13-5 17.3% 21.1% 21.1% 14.9 0.1 0.8 2.3 0.6 13.6
12-6 16.1% 15.3% 15.3% 15.1 0.3 1.5 0.7 13.6
11-7 11.8% 12.5% 12.5% 15.4 0.0 0.7 0.7 10.4
10-8 7.6% 10.5% 10.5% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 6.8
9-9 4.2% 7.5% 7.5% 15.8 0.1 0.3 3.9
8-10 2.0% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.1 1.9
7-11 0.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8
6-12 0.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.9% 20.9% 0.0% 14.6 79.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.2 12.5 52.1 35.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%