Bradley
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.6 #121
Expected Predictive Rating +3.0 #113
Pace 68.6 #183
Improvement -0.4 #203

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #114 C C- B+ B- C-
Defense #145 C C+ B C- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #294 1.20 #116 -1.6 #243
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #122 0.64 #334 -0.4 #199
Three Pointers 43% #149 1.07 #98 +1.9 #113
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #181 -0.1 #181
Freethrows 0.32 #119 75% #92 0.24 #100
Second Chance 27.6% #270 1.07 #116 0.30 #218
Turnovers 13.7% #31
Total Offense +2.1 #114

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #346 1.16 #185 +4.8 #45
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #14 0.78 #223 -3.3 #357
Three Pointers 41% #169 1.11 #310 -2.1 #281
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #200 -0.6 #202
Freethrows 0.33 #270 72% #191 0.24 #260
Second Chance 30.7% #178 0.95 #84 0.29 #124
Turnovers 19.2% #53
Total Defense +0.6 #145

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #265 -3.2% #15
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.0% #158 4.6% #270
Possession Length 16.9 #126 17.4 #204
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #194 0.16 #147
Improvement +3.5 #31 -3.9 #347

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 8.6% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.6 12.8
.500 or above 96.9% 99.1% 91.4%
.500 or above in Conference 94.1% 97.9% 84.7%
Conference Champion 4.5% 5.9% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.9% 8.6% 6.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 70.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 53 - 7
Quad 38 - 510 - 12
Quad 48 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 141 St. Bonaventure L 63 - 69 55% -4  0 - 1 -5 -7 C F A +2 B+ B B
 Sat, Nov 8 294 Central Michigan W 85 - 54 89% +14  1 - 1 +20 +9 A+ F B- +12 A B+ A-
 Wed, Nov 12 203 Tennessee Martin L 67 - 78 78% -2  1 - 2 -17 -9 F C+ C- -7 F F+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 97 @San Francisco L 64 - 75 29% -2  1 - 3 -3 -3 F D C +0 F A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 314 Umass Lowell W 87 - 77 91% -0  2 - 3 -2 +12 B- A D+ -14 D- B+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 213 Princeton W 88 - 64 71% +8  3 - 3 +21 +15 A+ F B- +6 D+ F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 138 UC San Diego L 77 - 87 55% -3  3 - 4 -9 +6 C A+ F+ -15 C F D
 Wed, Nov 26 89 Liberty W 74 - 64 36% +10  4 - 4 +16 +8 B A+ F +9 B+ B A+
 Tue, Dec 2 122 Washington St. W 64 - 60 62% -3  5 - 4 +4 -10 F C A +14 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 308 Northern Illinois W 84 - 55 90% +14  6 - 4 +17 +4 B D- A- +12 A+ D+ B
 Thu, Dec 18 198 @Indiana St. W 108 - 99 3OT 58% +1  7 - 4 1 - 0 +10 +8 C- C A+ -1 B- B+ F+
 Sun, Dec 21 137 Southern Illinois W 73 - 69 66% +4  8 - 4 2 - 0 +2 +1 C B- D +1 B+ C B-
 Mon, Dec 29 269 Evansville W 76 - 68 86% -2  9 - 4 3 - 0 -1 +2 D+ F A+ -3 B- D- D-
 Thu, Jan 1 74 @Belmont L 78 - 88 22% -3  9 - 5 3 - 1 +1 +9 A C F -8 C- F A-
 Sun, Jan 4 106 @Murray St. L 66 - 86 33% -14  9 - 6 3 - 2 -13 -5 F C- A+ -8 F B B
 Wed, Jan 7 162 Drake W 93 - 66 72% +20  10 - 6 4 - 2 +24 +13 B+ B- A +9 B- A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 110 Northern Iowa W 75 - 69 58% +2  11 - 6 5 - 2 +7 +11 B C A+ -4 B C F
 Tue, Jan 13 269 @Evansville W 94 - 90 OT 71% -3  12 - 6 6 - 2 +1 +15 B- D- A+ -14 F C- C
 Sat, Jan 17 87 @Illinois St. L 62 - 88 26% -13  12 - 7 6 - 3 -17 -2 F C- C- -16 D- D- F+
 Wed, Jan 21 198 Indiana St. W 75 - 68 78% -3  13 - 7 7 - 3 +2 -1 F C A+ +2 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 135 Illinois-Chicago L 70 - 85 65% -8  13 - 8 7 - 4 -16 +2 C+ D A+ -20 F B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 162 @Drake W 87 - 73 50% +8  14 - 8 8 - 4 +17 +22 A+ B+ C+ -4 B D D+
 Tue, Feb 3 160 Valparaiso W 74 - 68 71%
 Fri, Feb 6 110 @Northern Iowa L 63 - 67 35%
 Mon, Feb 9 74 Belmont L 78 - 80 41%
 Sun, Feb 15 137 @Southern Illinois L 72 - 74 43%
 Wed, Feb 18 160 @Valparaiso L 71 - 72 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 87 Illinois St. L 72 - 73 47%
 Tue, Feb 24 135 @Illinois-Chicago L 72 - 74 43%
 Sun, Mar 1 106 Murray St. W 83 - 82 56%
Totals 18 - 12 12 - 8 +3 +2 C C- B+ +1 C C+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 1.7 1.9 0.5 4.5 1st
2nd 1.5 8.1 7.6 1.4 0.1 18.7 2nd
3rd 1.0 9.1 9.3 1.2 0.0 20.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 6.6 11.4 2.3 20.7 4th
5th 0.0 3.7 10.7 2.4 0.0 16.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 6.8 3.0 0.1 11.1 6th
7th 0.3 2.8 2.6 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.5 0.9 0.1 1.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.9 5.0 13.6 21.5 24.4 20.2 10.4 3.4 0.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 88.7% 0.5    0.3 0.1
15-5 57.1% 1.9    0.7 1.1 0.1
14-6 16.4% 1.7    0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 1.3 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.5% 5.7% 5.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.5
15-5 3.4% 17.7% 17.7% 12.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.8
14-6 10.4% 12.9% 12.9% 12.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 9.1
13-7 20.2% 10.3% 10.3% 12.5 0.0 1.1 0.9 0.1 18.1
12-8 24.4% 8.5% 8.5% 12.8 0.8 1.1 0.3 22.4
11-9 21.5% 5.8% 5.8% 13.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 20.2
10-10 13.6% 2.8% 2.8% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.3
9-11 5.0% 1.4% 1.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 5.0
8-12 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 12.6 92.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.5%