Brown
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.8 #247
Expected Predictive Rating -9.2 #308
Pace 66.4 #256
Improvement +2.7 #52

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #339 F D+ F F C+
Defense #103 B- C- C C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #134 0.99 #334 -2.5 #270
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #211 0.58 #347 -2.4 #295
Three Pointers 41% #169 0.95 #263 -1.1 #224
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #336 -6.0 #336
Freethrows 12.0 #357 69% #278 8.3 #356
Second Chance 27.9% #266 1.02 #214 0.29 #260
Turnovers 19.6% #332
Total Offense -7.2 #339

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #127 1.13 #143 -0.7 #201
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #172 0.81 #260 -0.7 #239
Three Pointers 39% #245 0.88 #44 +3.7 #60
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #104 +2.3 #104
Freethrows 15.6 #96 74% #245 11.5 #251
Second Chance 32.4% #248 1.04 #188 0.34 #222
Turnovers 17.0% #152
Total Defense +2.3 #103

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #141 0.3% #185
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.5% #344 -4.8% #93
Possession Length 17.7 #221 17.2 #170
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #293 0.21 #301
Improvement -1.4 #270 +4.1 #7

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 3.0% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 6.0% 12.8% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 24.1% 41.2% 15.8%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 35.8% 18.3% 44.3%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
First Round1.6% 2.7% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Away) - 32.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 47 - 79 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 190 Siena L 46 - 62 51%  -12  0 - 1 -21 -26 F F F +4 A- C A-
 Sun, Nov 9 198 Vermont L 84 - 89 2OT 52%  +3  0 - 2 -10 -5 C- F D- -4 A+ D D
 Wed, Nov 12 258 @Boston University L 77 - 90 41%  -14  0 - 3 -16 +6 F A+ D -23 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 14 252 Hampton L 63 - 72 62%  -4  0 - 4 -17 -6 A- C F -12 B- F C
 Tue, Nov 18 326 Holy Cross W 68 - 49 79%  +12  1 - 4 +6 -1 D+ A+ F +10 B A A-
 Thu, Nov 20 276 @Stony Brook L 70 - 80 45%  -9  1 - 5 -14 +0 C+ B+ F -14 F F F
 Sun, Nov 23 339 @Maine W 58 - 53 64%  +8  2 - 5 -4 -10 F C F +7 D A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 26 344 @New Hampshire W 59 - 47 65%  +5  3 - 5 +3 -12 C F F +16 A+ B- B
 Tue, Dec 2 141 @Rhode Island L 56 - 66 20%  -4  3 - 6 -6 -9 F D+ C +3 A+ D+ C-
 Fri, Dec 5 317 Bryant W 75 - 56 77%  +12  4 - 6 +7 +1 C+ D- C+ +6 C A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 9 66 @Providence L 79 - 86 7%  -6  4 - 7 +5 +2 D+ C- B+ +3 B+ B+ A
 Mon, Jan 5 80 Yale L 53 - 70 19%  -3  4 - 8 0 - 1 -13 -22 F F F +9 A- C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 216 @Penn L 68 - 73 33% 
 Sat, Jan 17 139 Columbia L 68 - 71 39% 
 Mon, Jan 19 168 Cornell L 79 - 80 47% 
 Sat, Jan 24 242 @Princeton L 63 - 66 38% 
 Fri, Jan 30 196 Harvard W 65 - 64 52% 
 Sat, Jan 31 230 Dartmouth W 71 - 69 58% 
 Fri, Feb 6 80 @Yale L 63 - 78 9% 
 Fri, Feb 13 196 @Harvard L 62 - 68 31% 
 Sat, Feb 14 230 @Dartmouth L 68 - 72 36% 
 Fri, Feb 20 242 Princeton W 66 - 63 60% 
 Fri, Feb 27 139 @Columbia L 65 - 74 21% 
 Sat, Feb 28 168 @Cornell L 76 - 83 26% 
 Fri, Mar 6 216 Penn W 71 - 70 55% 
Totals 9 - 16 5 - 9 -5 -7 F D+ F +2 B- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 1st
2nd 0.3 1.9 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.2 4.0 1.1 0.1 9.9 3rd
4th 0.3 4.8 5.7 1.2 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.2 4.8 7.8 1.5 0.0 14.3 5th
6th 0.2 3.6 9.5 2.5 0.0 15.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.3 9.4 3.8 0.1 18.3 7th
8th 0.6 3.2 7.0 8.5 3.8 0.2 23.4 8th
Total 0.6 3.2 7.6 13.0 17.1 18.5 15.8 11.7 7.1 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 84.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-3 48.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
10-4 16.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
9-5 4.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-3 0.4% 23.5% 23.5% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
10-4 1.3% 10.6% 10.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
9-5 3.5% 10.4% 10.4% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 3.1
8-6 7.1% 9.0% 9.0% 15.7 0.2 0.5 6.5
7-7 11.7% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 11.2
6-8 15.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 15.7
5-9 18.5% 18.5
4-10 17.1% 17.1
3-11 13.0% 13.0
2-12 7.6% 7.6
1-13 3.2% 3.2
0-14 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.5 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%