IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Brown
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-6.8	#280
Expected Predictive Rating	-9.9	#326

Pace	65.3	#270
Improvement	-0.4	#201

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#351	D-	C-	D-	D-	C+
Defense	#130	C+	C	C	D+	C

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	42%	#92	1.01	#337	-1.2	#230
2 Pt. Jumpers	18%	#232	0.60	#349	-2.5	#297
Three Pointers	41%	#194	0.88	#331	-2.9	#283
1st FG Attempt			0.89	#348	-6.6	#351
Freethrows	0.24	#340	71%	#233	0.17	#339
Second Chance	29.2%	#228	1.03	#181	0.30	#208
Turnovers					19.7%	#338
Total Offense					-8.0	#351

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	40%	#132	1.11	#116	-0.2	#186
2 Pt. Jumpers	21%	#165	0.87	#328	-1.3	#287
Three Pointers	39%	#255	0.91	#47	+3.4	#56
1st FG Attempt			0.98	#116	+1.8	#118
Freethrows	0.32	#226	76%	#343	0.24	#277
Second Chance	30.5%	#169	1.01	#160	0.31	#164
Turnovers					16.9%	#165
Total Defense					+1.3	#130

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	1.2%	#110	0.2%	#181
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-13.9%	#358	-3.8%	#100
Possession Length	17.7	#225	17.3	#193
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.14	#263	0.20	#290
Improvement	-1.0	#236	+0.6	#150

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	15.5	16.0

.500 or above	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
.500 or above in Conference	0.2%	2.3%	0.1%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	95.0%	83.0%	95.7%

First Four	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
First Round	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Yale (Away) - 5.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 7	1 - 11
Quad 4	6 - 7	7 - 18

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Fri, Nov 7	174 Siena	L	46 - 62	40%	-12	0 - 1		-20	-27	F	F	F	+6	A	C+	A-
Sun, Nov 9	211 Vermont	L	84 - 89 2OT	47%	+3	0 - 2		-11	-4	C+	F	D	-6	A-	C-	D-
Wed, Nov 12	290 @Boston University	L	77 - 90	41%	-14	0 - 3		-17	+6	D	A	C-	-24	F	F	C+
Fri, Nov 14	251 Hampton	L	63 - 72	56%	-4	0 - 4		-17	-6	B+	C+	F	-12	B-	F	C
Tue, Nov 18	323 Holy Cross	W	68 - 49	72%	+12	1 - 4		+6	-1	C	B+	F	+10	B	A-	B+
Thu, Nov 20	217 @Stony Brook	L	70 - 80	27%	-9	1 - 5		-10	+0	B-	B	F+	-11	D+	F	F+
Sun, Nov 23	346 @Maine	W	58 - 53	58%	+8	2 - 5		-4	-11	F	C+	F	+7	D+	B+	A-
Wed, Nov 26	320 @New Hampshire	W	59 - 47	50%	+5	3 - 5		+5	-11	D+	D	F	+17	A+	B-	B
Tue, Dec 2	119 @Rhode Island	L	56 - 66	12%	-4	3 - 6		-4	-9	F	C-	C	+4	A	D	C
Fri, Dec 5	347 Bryant	W	75 - 56	78%	+12	4 - 6		+4	-1	C	C-	C	+6	C-	A+	C+
Tue, Dec 9	67 @Providence	L	79 - 86	6%	-6	4 - 7		+4	+1	D	C	B-	+4	B	B+	A-
Mon, Jan 5	80 Yale	L	53 - 70	15%	-3	4 - 8	0 - 1	-13	-21	F	D	D-	+8	B	B	A+
Sat, Jan 10	180 @Penn	L	73 - 81	21%	-1	4 - 9	0 - 2	-6	+3	C-	B-	C-	-10	D-	A	F+
Sat, Jan 17	183 Columbia	W	86 - 80 OT	42%	-1	5 - 9	1 - 2	+1	+6	B-	D+	C+	-5	A	F	D-
Mon, Jan 19	176 Cornell	L	67 - 89	40%	-13	5 - 10	1 - 3	-26	-15	D-	F	F	-11	D-	C	D-
Sat, Jan 24	213 @Princeton	L	53 - 63	26%	-1	5 - 11	1 - 4	-10	-14	F	B+	C-	+3	A+	B-	F
Fri, Jan 30	165 Harvard	L	59 - 69	37%	-5	5 - 12	1 - 5	-13	-7	F	A	C	-8	F+	A+	B+
Sat, Jan 31	229 Dartmouth	L	70 - 77 OT	50%	-4	5 - 13	1 - 6	-14	-11	F	B-	F	-3	C+	B+	C-
Fri, Feb 6	80 @Yale	L	61 - 78	6%
Fri, Feb 13	165 @Harvard	L	59 - 68	19%
Sat, Feb 14	229 @Dartmouth	L	67 - 73	29%
Fri, Feb 20	213 Princeton	L	64 - 65	47%
Fri, Feb 27	183 @Columbia	L	65 - 73	23%
Sat, Feb 28	176 @Cornell	L	75 - 84	20%
Fri, Mar 6	180 Penn	L	68 - 70	41%
Totals						7 - 18	3 - 11	-7	-8	D-	C-	D-	+1	C+	C	C

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ivy League Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0	Total
1st																	1st
2nd									0.0							0.0	2nd
3rd							0.0	0.1								0.2	3rd
4th						0.0	0.4	0.1								0.4	4th
5th						0.4	0.8	0.0								1.2	5th
6th					0.2	2.3	0.5									3.0	6th
7th				0.8	5.3	3.7	0.0									9.8	7th
8th		12.6	29.4	29.9	12.5	1.0										85.4	8th

Total		12.6	29.4	30.7	18.0	7.4	1.7	0.2	0.0								Total

Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6	0.0%
7-7	0.0%

Total

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6	0.0%																					0.0
7-7	0.2%	10.8%	10.8%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.2
6-8	1.7%	2.3%	2.3%		16.0																0.0	1.7
5-9	7.4%																					7.4
4-10	18.0%																					18.0
3-11	30.7%																					30.7
2-12	29.4%																					29.4
1-13	12.6%																					12.6
0-14

Total	100%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	15.8																	99.9	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	12.6%