Bucknell
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.5 #315
Expected Predictive Rating -9.7 #323
Pace 67.6 #217
Improvement -2.6 #292

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #322 D D+ D- C C+
Defense #284 D C- C C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #233 1.08 #274 -2.7 #273
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #254 0.54 #363 -3.2 #328
Three Pointers 47% #66 0.92 #298 +0.6 #153
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #325 -5.2 #325
Freethrows 0.28 #252 76% #75 0.21 #188
Second Chance 25.8% #311 1.05 #138 0.27 #271
Turnovers 19.9% #342
Total Offense -5.8 #322

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #260 1.26 #306 -0.3 #189
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.86 #321 -1.0 #263
Three Pointers 43% #106 1.11 #315 -3.2 #313
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #319 -4.5 #316
Freethrows 0.32 #241 73% #243 0.24 #254
Second Chance 32.8% #277 1.05 #221 0.34 #260
Turnovers 17.0% #160
Total Defense -3.7 #284

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #149 -0.5% #128
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.8% #337 9.7% #334
Possession Length 17.8 #235 16.9 #123
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #332 0.17 #172
Improvement +1.2 #116 -3.8 #346

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.3% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 17.4% 37.5% 11.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.8% 8.8% 29.6%
First Four2.5% 3.2% 2.3%
First Round1.3% 1.6% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Away) - 23.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 70 - 11
Quad 411 - 1111 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 286 Delaware W 78 - 70 53% +6  1 - 0 -2 +0 C B+ F -2 A+ F D+
 Fri, Nov 7 289 @Mount St. Mary's W 73 - 62 31% +4  2 - 0 +7 +6 B F A+ +1 B- B+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 213 @Princeton L 63 - 73 19% -5  2 - 1 -10 -8 C- F F+ -3 C- C- C-
 Fri, Nov 14 126 Hofstra L 77 - 83 21% -2  2 - 2 -7 -2 D+ A+ F -4 D- A+ C-
 Mon, Nov 17 93 @Pittsburgh L 50 - 84 5% -17  2 - 3 -25 -15 F F+ F -13 F F+ A-
 Thu, Nov 20 19 @St. John's L 49 - 97 1% -17  2 - 4 -27 -18 F D- F -6 F B+ B
 Mon, Nov 24 151 Bowling Green L 66 - 71 18% -7  2 - 5 -5 -4 B D F -0 C D+ A
 Wed, Nov 26 204 Buffalo L 71 - 73 26% -2  2 - 6 -5 +4 B- C- C- -9 D+ A D
 Sun, Nov 30 176 Cornell L 72 - 101 30% -14  2 - 7 -33 -13 F A F -18 F F A-
 Wed, Dec 3 61 @Akron L 77 - 97 3% -11  2 - 8 -8 +9 B- D- A+ -17 D- C F
 Sat, Dec 6 261 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 66 - 73 47% -1  2 - 9 -16 -6 F C C- -10 F C- B-
 Tue, Dec 9 352 @Rider W 51 - 38 51% +8  3 - 9 +3 -19 F F F +25 B A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 21 Iowa L 39 - 94 2% -23  3 - 10 -38 -23 D+ F F -19 D- F D+
 Wed, Dec 31 323 @Holy Cross L 58 - 65 40% -4  3 - 11 0 - 1 -14 -11 D- F F -4 C- C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 301 Lehigh W 72 - 65 57% -3  4 - 11 1 - 1 -4 -8 F B- C +4 B- F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 179 @Navy L 55 - 76 15% -7  4 - 12 1 - 2 -19 -11 F+ F D- -10 D- F B
 Sat, Jan 10 318 Loyola Maryland W 70 - 67 62% +1  5 - 12 2 - 2 -10 -9 F B+ F -1 D- A A-
 Wed, Jan 14 310 Lafayette W 76 - 69 59% +1  6 - 12 3 - 2 -5 +3 B- A+ F -7 D C- C
 Sat, Jan 17 222 @Colgate L 76 - 95 19% -14  6 - 13 3 - 3 -19 +0 D- C- C -19 F F D
 Wed, Jan 21 336 Army L 84 - 87 OT 67% -2  6 - 14 3 - 4 -17 +3 B- F+ C+ -20 F D+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 318 @Loyola Maryland L 62 - 67 39% -2  6 - 15 3 - 5 -12 -9 F C- C+ -3 C F+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 310 @Lafayette L 79 - 81 37% +4  6 - 16 3 - 6 -8 +9 C- B- C- -17 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 31 290 Boston University W 103 - 97 2OT 53% +3  7 - 16 4 - 6 -4 +12 B B- B -17 B- F F
 Wed, Feb 4 244 @American L 67 - 75 23%
 Sat, Feb 7 222 Colgate L 71 - 74 38%
 Mon, Feb 9 179 Navy L 66 - 71 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 290 @Boston University L 69 - 74 31%
 Wed, Feb 18 244 American L 70 - 72 44%
 Sun, Feb 22 323 Holy Cross W 71 - 68 62%
 Wed, Feb 25 336 @Army L 73 - 74 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 301 @Lehigh L 68 - 72 34%
Totals 10 - 21 7 - 11 -9 -6 D D+ D- -4 D C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 5.6 1.9 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.8 8.1 4.8 0.2 13.9 5th
6th 0.1 6.5 8.8 0.7 16.1 6th
7th 2.4 12.2 2.4 17.0 7th
8th 0.6 9.2 5.8 0.1 15.7 8th
9th 0.2 4.7 8.2 0.7 13.8 9th
10th 2.6 5.9 1.9 0.0 10.4 10th
Total 2.8 11.2 21.7 26.0 21.0 12.0 4.2 1.1 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 7.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 2.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 1.1% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.1 0.9
10-8 4.2% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.3 4.0
9-9 12.0% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.6 11.4
8-10 21.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.8 20.2
7-11 26.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.4 25.6
6-12 21.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 21.4
5-13 11.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 11.1
4-14 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 16.0 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%